7 replies to this topic

[CobaltBlue]

Bodog $25k-Guaranteed NLHE MTT ($30+3 Rebuy) (7-handed)

Cobalt T49,400
Button T38,315

Blinds 800/1,600, Antes 150

38/324 left (bubble at 36), Avg. Stack ~32k
28th-36th pays $125, 1st pays $6,250, I'm in for $93

Cobalt is CO w/ J J . I've been the big stack at my table for quite a while (and I'm definitely in the top 5 in chips) and haven't shown anything down in a long time...though when I have shown, it's been good stuff. I've been "stealing" the blinds about once or twice per round for the past few rounds. Button has been somewhat active recently (came over the top of another guy's CO-raise). The rest of the players at the table seem to be weak and are in the 20k chip range.

Pre-flop:
3 folds, Cobalt raises to T5,200, Button goes all-in for T38,165, Cobalt ?

[simo_8ball]

You're probably against AK/AQ, and you could even be against TT/99. I don't hate a fold, but I don't know if I buy that this is AA/KK (although I think QQ is in the range). This is also close to the bubble, so he could be making a move with junk expecting a lot of fold equity.

Alternatively, if you expect to be able to steal the blinds quite regularly while you are near the bubble, folding is the safer play.

It depends on the table quality and dynamic. In any case, calling is a profitable move.

[mk]

i call. if he's a good player, he'll be re-stealing with a huge range here. and the fact that he's shoving screams "DON'T CALL" to me.

[Bizzle]

i call. if he's a good player, he'll be re-stealing with a huge range here. and the fact that he's shoving screams "DON'T CALL" to me.

A tight range here would be AK-AJ, 99+, and the occasional random bluff, and against that range it is still a call.

[CobaltBlue]

You're probably against AK/AQ, and you could even be against TT/99. I don't hate a fold, but I don't know if I buy that this is AA/KK (although I think QQ is in the range). This is also close to the bubble, so he could be making a move with junk expecting a lot of fold equity.

Alternatively, if you expect to be able to steal the blinds quite regularly while you are near the bubble, folding is the safer play.

It depends on the table quality and dynamic. In any case, calling is a profitable move.

That was the primary problem that I saw. Even with folding, I'd still be among the chip leaders and have plenty of stealing opportunities. I knew calling was profitable...just hard to gauge whether folding is more profitable.

As far as range, I don't buy that it's necessarily AA/KK either. I do think Bizzle's suggested range is roughly correct.

[rocketpoker828]

I've found that most of the time that the big AI move here is 66-99, sometimes AK or AQ. I can't see laying this down.

[CobaltBlue]

I can't see laying this down.

If it were a cash game with similar circumstances, I'd call every time. The problem is that I felt like I'd be gambling an excellent chance of getting to the final table against a chance at bubbling just for a decent chip lead at this point.

[rocketpoker828]

If it were a cash game with similar circumstances, I'd call every time. The problem is that I felt like I'd be gambling an excellent chance of getting to the final table against a chance at bubbling just for a decent chip lead at this point.

The money is in winning the tournaments. I think its worth the risk to try to amass a chip lead.