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With The Bankroll On The Line


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#1 navybuttons

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 03:13 AM

this is obviously prompted by recent discussions around the forum. most notably the way that recent 'help please' thread went; and the quiz question.you're out of college and can get a job as an accountant making 40K a year. unforunately your wife has expensive tastes and 40K after taxes gives you just a bit more than ramen every night. if you get a raise she'll just spend more. your dad knows how much you love to play poker and gives you $2,000 to enjoy yourself. you have dreams of becoming a pro and this is your last chance to build a bankroll. you sit in a 20/40 NL cash game with that $2000 and play only a few hands for the first two hours.after that 2 hours you realize that the table is ALL DONKEYS except for the tightest guy you've ever seen in the world. everyone plays bad. if you ever flop more than top pair (except against the tight guy) you are going to double up. (if you play smash strat you are going to make more than you make in 2 months in 8 hours)now a hand comes up where everyone folds to you in the small blind. you raise the tightest player in the world to 120 with K :club: Q :D .the flop comes J :D 10 :D 2 :) . you bet 120. he raises to 300. you raise to 900 and he shoves all in. you're sure that he has a set of 10s or Jacks. if you fold you'll have $1200 left.how do you play it?
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#2 pragtyro

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 03:34 AM

I think the odds of me having ak in the bb of the 1st hand of the ME and the sb going all in and accidentally exposing qj are 10x higher than the odds of my dad giving me $2000 and me putting all down on one game :club:

#3 BudBundy

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 03:38 AM

Call if you are fully bankrolled for this limit.Fold if you are sitting with your whole bankroll and wait for better odds to put your money in the middle^.Don't need to mess with the tight player while you can easily take other players' money.

#4 antistuff

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 06:25 AM

trying to think of a good way to phrase thisif you do have the guts to call here how could you even consider becoming a "pro"?
QUOTE ( Barry Greenstein)
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#5 pragtyro

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 11:38 AM

View Postantistuff, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 7:25 AM, said:

trying to think of a good way to phrase thisif you do have the guts to call here how could you even consider becoming a "pro"?
.... ah nevermind.

#6 Zach6668

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 12:47 PM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt   5,940  games	 0.005 secs	 1,188,000  games/secBoard: Jh Th 2c Dead:  			equity (%)	  win (%)	tie (%) Hand  1:	42.1212 %	  42.12% 	00.00%	  { KhQh }Hand  2:	57.8788 %	  57.88% 	00.00%	  { JJ-TT }
1200 to win 2800.2.333-1.Easy call :club:+EV.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#7 Actuary

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 12:55 PM

View Postantistuff, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 6:25 AM, said:

trying to think of a good way to phrase thisif you do have the guts to call here how could you even consider becoming a "pro"?
ah because this is the last $$$$ you'll ever have to build a roll with.so you have about a 50% chance of never ever ever going pro.*********************No, I fold.You all are pretty much missing the point.We don't get anymore money, it's not EV to call in that contextWith the overlay it's +EV.I"m not sure if we are favored to win the hand though. Likely not vs a set.And I"m not risking my only $$$$ ever I"ll have on even a 60% edge, which this is not.But if I was sufficiently rolled, this is an easy call given the overlay.Question illustrates 2 things:1. playing out of your roll when you cannot replenish it, will lead to either going broke or making -EV plays to avoid variance...and probably leading to a low return and going broke2. take the easy money at the table

#8 BudBundy

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 01:27 PM

View PostActuary, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 11:55 PM, said:

ah because this is the last $$$$ you'll eer have to build a roll with.so you have about a 50% chance of never ever ever going pro.*********************No, I fold.You all arec pretty much missing the point.We don't get anymore money, it's not EV to call in that contextWith the overlay it's +EV.I"m not sure if we are favored to win the hand though. Likely not vs a set.And I"m not risking my only $$$$ ever I"ll have on even a 60% edge, which this is not.But if I was rolled, this is an easy call given the overlay.Question illustrates 2 things:1. playing out of your roll when you cannot replenish it, will lead to either going broke or making -EV plays to avoid variance...and probably leading to a low return and going broke2. take the easy money at the table
Did you just repeat what i said in longer and fancier sentences?

#9 Actuary

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 01:41 PM

View PostBudBundy, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 1:27 PM, said:

Did you just repeat what i said in longer and fancier sentences?
In so much as I took the concepts you laid out and reworded them into a longer, perhaps more confusing, if not complex format, then yeah, I repeated what you said with fancier sentences and more misspellings.Other than that I would disagree that I stole your ideas.I would like to amend my original post to say "you all except Bud are not getting it"

#10 Zach6668

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 01:58 PM

View PostActuary, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 5:41 PM, said:

I would like to amend my original post to say "you all except Bud are not getting it"
I understand it.My post stands.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#11 BudBundy

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 01:58 PM

View PostActuary, on Sunday, October 1st, 2006, 12:41 AM, said:

In so much as I took the concepts you laid out and reworded them into a longer, perhaps more confusing, if not complex format, then yeah, I repeated what you said with fancier sentences and more misspellings.Other than that I would disagree that I stole your ideas.I would like to amend my original post to say "you all except Bud are not getting it"
Except the first and last sentences i understood what you mean in your reply.

#12 bascomeb

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 02:43 PM

This question would never apply because if you want to become a pro, then you wouldn't even play that game with $2000 bankroll.Still with that said I call, +EV
SW

#13 navybuttons

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 05:54 PM

View Postbascomeb, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 3:43 PM, said:

This question would never apply because if you want to become a pro, then you wouldn't even play that game with $2000 bankroll.Still with that said I call, +EV
i thought i agreed that you wouldn't post in my threads. oh well, do whatever you like. :club: your statement has contradiction. you imply that you should always make the +EV decision but sitting in the game is +EV too as you are a favorite to win. my response to the question:while the call is a +EV one, to make the call is -EV. what makes bankroll management so important is that if used properly it should help to keep you from going broke. going broke is gamblers ruin and the prevention of which should over ride all other decisions. this question is do you chose between the +ev decision on the table or what i believe is the overall +ev decision (not going broke when you stand as a favorite over the table).as posed i think it's an easy fold. it's a theory question not a question of odds.
if you're not playing the notes in front of you it's not mozart.

#14 TheCinciKid

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 05:59 PM

This thread and example is basically a prime example of why you shouldn't play outside your roll and should never have your last money on the table. That said, this should be an easy call based on the EV. Unfortunately, if it was my last money I'd probably want to fold. Of course, I don't think I'd ever have my last money on the table unless I was on enough of a tilt that I wouldn't care whether or not I lost it and then I'd probably make this call out of frustration.
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#15 AcesOnFire

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 06:18 PM

I'd think about it for 10 minutes and probably call.
I've known hexidecimal since before I was A.

#16 Turbo Dog

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 07:19 PM

Never take money to a poker game or casino that you aren't prepared to lose.Call

#17 antistuff

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 08:21 PM

View Postpragtyro, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 11:38 AM, said:

.... ah nevermind.
you know what i meant.
QUOTE ( Barry Greenstein)
Successful gamblers are compulsive winners.

#18 Actuary

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 11:23 PM

View PostZach6668, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 1:58 PM, said:

I understand it.My post stands.
So you'd never have $$$$ for poker again 57% of the time?Genius.****************What is so hard for so many of you to understand a hypotetical scenario. We cannot ever get money again to build a rolll. That's the freakin point. Of course sitting at the table is not a good long term EV play when the varaince even against the bad players would lead to going broke. I especially think bascomeb made tons of sense. WE HAVE NO OTHER SOURCE OF MONEY FOR POKER!!!or I guess you all are getting divorces to free up capital?this could explain some of the great BR management going on around FCP. When you have other sources to replenish the roll, you can always go "broke", temporarily.Read the Question and understand the options.

#19 Zach6668

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 11:43 PM

Actuary,I've been broke multiple times with no money for poker or anything for that matter.Most of those times I did it on -EV bets.This time I'm doing it on a +EV bet.w00t.- Zach
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#20 Actuary

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Posted 30 September 2006 - 11:46 PM

View PostZach6668, on Saturday, September 30th, 2006, 11:43 PM, said:

Actuary,I've been broke multiple times with no money for poker or anything for that matter.Most of those times I did it on -EV bets.This time I'm doing it on a +EV bet.w00t.- Zach
but this time your mom won't be buying the groceries.you will never have money again for poker.




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