12 replies to this topic

[rwood]

5/10 ring

Hero is on the button w/ A Q

folds to CO who raises, Hero 3 bets, SB & BB fold, CO calls

Flop

9 7 2

CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls

Turn

Q

CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls

K

CO bets, Hero calls

[GoingBusto]

I think I can find a river fold here. The rest is good.

GB

[rwood]

yea but im getting 8-1 here, and this is CO vs Button, i think im beating his range here more than 1/8th of the time, disagree?

[GoingBusto]

yea but im getting 8-1 here, and this is CO vs Button, i think im beating his range here more than 1/8th of the time, disagree?

Given how he played the rest of the hand, yes.

GB

[rwood]

so we agree call is necessary here?

[GoingBusto]

so we agree call is necessary here?

I meant, "yes, I disagree". Fold it.

GB

[bascomeb]

ugh I hate coordinalted flops like this that completely miss our hand.

I play it the same way except I fold on river

[Knight_Owl]

5/10 ring

Hero is on the button w/ A Q

folds to CO who raises, Hero 3 bets, SB & BB fold, CO calls

Flop

9 7 2

CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls

Turn

Q

CO checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls

K

CO bets, Hero calls

Well, I'll fold the river, no matter what the numbers tell you. Villian C/R on turn and you called, you think he is going to bet the river w/ a smaller spade? Im sure villian is putting you on a hand and knows that you have a piece of it since you called his c/r on turn. Doubt he will be bluffing the river against you given his position and his play.

It was a "crying call" ( you were probably like I'm beat but yet have to c it) Those little bets sure add up in the long run.

[alf13]

I think it's fine.

I like a pot size reduction with that flop.

I usually advocate continuation bet everything...but a check isn't the worst thing int he world with that flop. Think of the possible hands that could call you preflop and then think if you are really betting with the best hand on the flop.

The old addage of bet when ahead, check when behind applies here.

[CoranMoran]

Don't fold to river donk bets when scare cards hit.

Definitely don't fold when you are getting 8-1.

Without a specific read of Villain being quite tight, Call this.
Please.


--cm

[BuffDan]

Don't fold to river donk bets when scare cards hit.

Definitely don't fold when you are getting 8-1.

Without a specific read of Villain being quite tight, Call this.
Please.
--cm

Well its not a donk bet, as he was c/r on the turn. Does that signify enough strength to allow a fold (I ask because I find myself calling a turn c/r then calling river and finding myself badly beat often)?

[Actuary]

It's not just that a spade hit; but a K hit.

Villain could easily be Clarkmeistering AK, no spade.

On turn the pot was 4.5BB and hero bets, Villain could easily be semi bluffing AsX or even AxKx. He only needs hero to fold 20%.

I think we need to fold this river

[CoranMoran]

Well its not a donk bet, as he was c/r on the turn

True.
I would have 3bet the turn.
So I assumed he had as well.


My thoughts:

On the turn, his check raise represents strength.
2 spades, set, 2 pair, etc.
He could realistically have a lot of hands that beat us.

Or he could be bluffing with a hand that does not beat us.

But the fact that he still bet the river when a forth Flush card hits narrows his range greatly.
It is now much less likely that he is continuing to bet with a set or 2-pair on its own.
He is now usually only representing the two spades.
Not only that, but since the 4th spade on the baord didn't scare him, he is representing two spades with at least one of a high rank.

So we could say...
The chances of him bluffing remain the same.
But the number of hands that he has represented that have us beat has dropped.


After having said all that...
The qusetion is: Does he have the FLush?
My answer: Yes.
He probably does!

He certainly could have been bluff raising the turn with a 1-card Flush Draw
(Which is why I 3bet the turn for value.)

But I feel that our hand still wins more than the 10%-15% of the time that it needs to to make the call profitable.

(I ask because I find myself calling a turn c/r then calling river and finding myself badly beat often)?

This is a valid concern.
Under normal circumstances, if we hold a marginal hand and a tight villain check-raises us when a scare card hits on the turn, it will be too costly to call down 2 more big bets to see showdown.

But this is a very different situation here.
We didn't get check-raised when a scare card hit.
It happened when our best card hit.
So we are certainly not going to fold there.

And after that, it only costs us 1 more bet to possibly win a pretty large pot.
So it is much cheaper to call down in this situation.

--cm

Villain could easily be Clarkmeistering AK, no spade

I completely agree that he could have been bluffing with AK.
(which is why I 3bet the turn.)

But I don't think he bets the river in that case.
(at least, he shouldn't.)


When he bets the river, i think we can discount the K as a threat.

If he checked the river, I would no longer think he is bluffing (at least not enough of the time).
And I would have been more afraid of this situation.


--cm