16 replies to this topic

[cdxx]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) convertersaw flop|saw showdownMP ($52.63)CO ($22.05)Button ($21.91)Hero ($41.9)BB ($36.6)UTG ($22.75)Preflop: Hero is SB with [Q:club:], [Q:spade:]. Hero posts a blind of $0.1. UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1.75, UTG folds, CO calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50.[b]Flop: ($8.25) [7:spade:], [8:spade:], [4:diamond:] (4 players)Hero bets $5what do you do???Button is a very loose, but also aggressive player. he is up overall, but he goes through some wild variance swings up $60, down $50. BB is your typical $25 NL player. everything sort of predictable, not really creative, takes some chances with draws...

[KDawgCometh]

looks like he's pushing with a flush draw or straight draw here. If he has two pair(78 being the most likely) then you have five outs on the flop to improve. His raise to $11 puts 29 in the pot and you have to call only six here. He's definetly going in on this hand. Other than that I don't know what to say since you haven't given us any reads on the villian

[cdxx]

KDawgCometh said:

looks like he's pushing with a flush draw or straight draw here. If he has two pair(78 being the most likely) then you have five outs on the flop to improve. His raise to $11 puts 29 in the pot and you have to call only six here. He's definetly going in on this hand. Other than that I don't know what to say since you haven't given us any reads on the villian

sorry, had a paragraph typed up, but cut it away before posting. the reads should be on there now

[KDawgCometh]

honestly. Id say push as by calling he's going in anyway since he's pot committed. I think your hand might be good here and he's pushing with a draw. You counterfeit one of his spades(if he's on that) so he's as lkely to make that draw as he is to make an oesd

[cdxx]

KDawgCometh said:

honestly. Id say push as by calling he's going in anyway since he's pot committed. I think your hand might be good here and he's pushing with a draw. You counterfeit one of his spades(if he's on that) so he's as lkely to make that draw as he is to make an oesd

the thing about flush draws, if he hits it with the 4:spade: i have a very weak redraw, otherwise i am dead. with a reraise like this, i am most likely behind with a two outer or runner-runner to win.

[KDawgCometh]

his reraise is very suspicious in itself. Its either screaming strength or ridiculous weakness onhis part. If he is on teh flush draw then he'll only hit it about 30% of the time by the river given that you have one of his spades counterfeited. So the question is really are you ahead 70% of the time here

[allinbluff35]

push or fold

[RISEorFall]

I dunno this is screaming that he hit trips to me. BB is pretty obviously on a draw, so I don;t think its as easy to put villain on a draw here too. Although if he is you're way ahead. A8 might be a hand here too if this guy is as loose as you say. I agree...either push or fold. You're either way ahead or way behind.

[Random Fluke]

HMmmmmmmmm. Well, given your read I don't see how you can fold to a lag here. From your preflop raise he probably has you on AK and with this flop he is willing to bluff at it. Also he prob had the BB on a flush or straight draw. Basically this would be a good spot to bluff if you did indeed have 2 missed overcards. It is also possible that he has TT JJ. Or he could have akspades or kqspades AKs actually being a favourite to win here. If it were just the two of you heads up I'd probably smooth call and then decide on the turn how I wanted to procede depending on whethere another spade or straight card fell. But here I think you want to drive out the BB's draw and try to take the pot immediately. He could have you beat here with a set or higher overpair, but I think it is more likely that you have him beat. I'd probably push here to drive the BB off his draw.

[Absolute]

If he is a LAG I think pushing here is best.

[Rocketwadster]

I figure he is on a draw (ace 5? maybe both being spades), as is the BB. Doubtful he has kings or aces based on the pre-flop play, so your queens have a good chance of being good here. I would push him all-in here, either winning the pot right then or seeing what happens and take what the poker gods give you.

[Briguy]

You have a pair of queens. There's an OESF draw on the table. Both players simply called PF, which probably means strong drawing hands. You have two outs covered for the OESF, one for the flush-with-two-overs, which makes this a coin flip at the flop. Even with the best hand at this point (assuming no trips), you are quite possibly only a coin flip to one of these two players. I'm 50/50 on calling versus pushing all-in. I'm just sayin'.Personally, I think lagger has A8, A5, or A6 sooooted. I'd be more worried about Mr. SomeChancesWithDraws.

[RISEorFall]

Absolute said:

If he is a LAG I think pushing here is best.

even a LAG is entitled to a good hand every now and then...but yeah i agree, I'd probably push, the range of hands you can beat here outnumbers the range of hands that you can't beat.

[Absolute]

RISEorFALL said:

even a LAG is entitled to a good hand every now and then...but yeah i agree, I'd probably push, the range of hands you can beat here outnumbers the range of hands that you can't beat.

I don't mean to crass, but I think this is a very common mistake poker players make. You simply can't abide by logic like this and win games.Yes, of course, a LAG player gets good hands like any other player, and you have to account for that in any analysis, but the reason one keeps stats and makes labels for players is to optimize value.There are certain situations where you make decisions based on the player. You might get burned sometimes, because like you said, LAG players get good hands too, but making this call consistently versus a LAG is more profitable than doing so versus a rock.Therefore, in an instance like this especially, the focus is more on the player's betting hands and less on the probabilities of his hand.

[RISEorFall]

Absolute said:

Therefore, in an instance like this especially, the focus is more on the player's betting hands and less on the probabilities of his hand.

Yeah I know...that's why I said that in the range of hands he could be up against, the ones he has beat outnumber the ones that beat him. I was just saying that because he is a LAG, doesn't mean he doesn't have a good hand. I voted push because there's more hands here that the LAG might have that OP can beat.

[Big_J234]

I would push everything seems favorable two pairs A's & K's three flopped sets and 5,6 for a straight thats only 6 hands to beat you 8) . Not too bad considering but I would be worried about the BB calling here knowing that the button might raise any way he has the hand to really consider here imo. Any way thats my 2 cents.

[Jubba]

RISEorFall said:

I dunno this is screaming that he hit trips to me. BB is pretty obviously on a draw, so I don;t think its as easy to put villain on a draw here too. Although if he is you're way ahead. A8 might be a hand here too if this guy is as loose as you say. I agree...either push or fold. You're either way ahead or way behind.

I've seen morons play TPTK with A8/A7 exactly like this. That would be my guess. His idea is to raise to get the flush-draw out because he didn't even think about an over-pair.Flush-draw is a possibility, but I've seen players at this level be more passive about their flush draws...