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Quiz Question #21


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Poll: No Limit Hold'em (348 member(s) have cast votes)

What would you do?

  1. Call (199 votes [57.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 57.18%

  2. Fold (149 votes [42.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 42.82%

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#41 wisky_VI

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 11:28 AM

With two pro's surely soon to attack my equal stack I go ahead and get my money in ahead and try for the double. If a table that might have more of a chance on being tight then I may just fold but most likely not, that's a pretty big % on that hand to give away.

#42 semaj550

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 11:39 AM

One thing to consider (and we only can now in hindsight) is the large number of donkeys in the main event this year.If reports like DN's about the calibur of the average player (which I have no reason to question) are correct, you can be relatively well assured of getting a better chance.I would be looking for a situation where I am 2:1 or better to win in order to call here. 3:2 is very close but I think I draw my line at 2:1, I want to win at least twice as often as I am the first person out.

#43 MrNiceGuy

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 12:30 PM

Given the tough table, I'd call. Even if I felt I was good enough that I could expect to win $12k on average in the tourney when I signed up (which would make calling here an even money proposition at a random table), the tough draw would drop my expectation considerably. A top pro might be correct to fold, if he felt he had a substantial edge on the field, but I doubt even a strong amateur has an edge on the field, given that he has to battle two world class players.(Not to mention that you save a lot of time if you bust out now instead of later, and time=money; say on average you expect to last 18 hours, and you can make $30/hour playing cash games, then that's another ~$500 to consider).
Then you go to da box for 2 minutes by yourself, you feel shame... then you get free.

#44 Acid_Knight

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 02:25 PM

Why do so many people insist that they hate "calling" all-in with AK. That's not the situation here. In a real tournament where you don't see your opponent's cards, calling with AK usually results in you being against a pair, where you're "behind" to start the coinflip.That's not the case here. You KNOW what they have. The question could be posed in reverse, saying that you pushed with AKo and you know that your maniac opponent will call with QJh, would you still do it?Calling with AK here doesn't matter. It's just the hand matchup, and you know the exact odds.

#45 David_Nicoson

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 04:20 PM

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, September 12th, 2006, 12:17 PM, said:

From Daniel Negreanu's Cardplayer article "Go Big or Go Home"
Why on earth would you post that while the poll is still open?
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#46 shpaget

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 06:45 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 4:20 PM, said:

Why on earth would you post that while the poll is still open?
Several answers:1. Why not? Are you that insecure that it would change your answer? A good dozen people have responded "fold" since I posted this...it is, after all, a poll, and simply because DN says "call" doesn't mean it's correct....that I agree with his article is irrelevent. If you do these quizzes just to see if you give the same answer as DN, then you can continue being a sycophant...I do the quizzes to see what people say, and what intelligent opinions are generated, both in agreement and disagreement with DN's eventual answer.2. To see if DN has changed his mind since he wrote that.3. To generate discussion.4. To cut to the chase.5. Because.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#47 Head_Trauma

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 08:01 PM

View PostSwift_Psycho, on Monday, September 11th, 2006, 9:49 PM, said:

QFTUh, at some point chances are that you're going to have to take some risks eventually. If a 6.3-1 edge isn't good enough, you'd really be better off not playing.
Exactly, and that point is not the first hand of the first day of the WSOP.

View PostGABMAD, on Tuesday, September 12th, 2006, 10:18 AM, said:

QFT...head trauma, why not sit out until day 3? Why bother wasting some time at the table if ur blinding urself off either way?And shapget, just wondering, why would u specify that they are red aces?
By folding the first hand of the WSOP main event, I am blinding myself? I am wasting time at the table? Excuse me?

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, September 12th, 2006, 9:17 AM, said:

You are actually 86% to win in your scenario, and only 81% with AhAd preflop.To fold in either scenario is the worst idea since New Coke....it's just plain dumb...like room-temperature IQ dumb....please....where do you play poker?
All of you are ignoring the point: you have a maniac on your right. You are the only one who saw his cards, hence you are the only one who knows just how much of a maniac he is. You have the best position on him at the table. Exploit this in small pots by raising him when you have him beat, NOT by CALLING him when he pushes and you have him beat. Why take the risk when you are practically guaranteed to outplay him as long as he has any chips. You will get most, if not all, of his 10k over the course of the day, so just relax on the very first hand and let it go.

#48 Swift_Psycho

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Posted 13 September 2006 - 09:02 PM

View PostHead_Trauma, on Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 12:01 AM, said:

Exactly, and that point is not the first hand of the first day of the WSOP.
Uh, it really doesn't matter how good you are. You aren't good enough to turn down a 6.3-1 chance to double up.Debating whether or not to lay down the A-K to Q-J is one thing. Saying you wouldn't take a 6.3-1 advantage just means that you have no business playing in a tournament at all.

#49 shpaget

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 06:26 AM

View PostHead_Trauma, on Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 8:01 PM, said:

Exactly, and that point is not the first hand of the first day of the WSOP.By folding the first hand of the WSOP main event, I am blinding myself? I am wasting time at the table? Excuse me?All of you are ignoring the point: you have a maniac on your right. You are the only one who saw his cards, hence you are the only one who knows just how much of a maniac he is. You have the best position on him at the table. Exploit this in small pots by raising him when you have him beat, NOT by CALLING him when he pushes and you have him beat. Why take the risk when you are practically guaranteed to outplay him as long as he has any chips. You will get most, if not all, of his 10k over the course of the day, so just relax on the very first hand and let it go.
If he's as much a maniac as you say, what's to say he won't call you when you raise with a 60/40 edge, and how is that any different than this situation? What is the difference? Raising...calling...your edge is the same...what is the difference? If he's that much of a maniac you probably have no fold equity and he's simply willing to gamble early in the tournament in hopes of doubling up or saving his time...so what is the difference?And, you also make a huge assumption...that you and you alone will get the opportunities to take his chips...and the biggest assumption of all - that he'll be at your table (or you at his) for any length of time.This is much different in a cash game where you can expect him to be there a while, and you can hope that if he busts out to someone else that he'll rebuy and give you an opportunity to profit off him...in a tourney, if he gives all his chips to Gus Hansen half hour later, that doesn't do you any good at all.And if he goes all-in for the next five hands I can guarantee you that GH or PI will call him if they find AK....you want to double up on the first hand as much as you want them to NOT double up early.One other thing to consider...if you are that skilled where you think you can pass up a 60/40 edge, imagine how awesome you'd be with a double-sized chipstack AND that supreme skill.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#50 shpaget

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 07:01 AM

View PostHead_Trauma, on Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 8:01 PM, said:

Exactly, and that point is not the first hand of the first day of the WSOP.
And why not?Why are you willing to go broke at the end of day 2 on a 60% chance, but not on the first hand on an 86% chance?In both situations the worst case scenario is leaving the tourament with $0.The difference is in situation B you've taken 24 hours of effort to earn $0...in situation A you've allowed yourself to go golfing, play a cash game, do your groceries, and get laid.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#51 TheMick

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 07:15 AM

Call.The ME is virtually a crap shoot anyways. You have to bust sooner or later, and considering that 90% of the field isn't going to cash...you might as well take the chance. So what if I lose? If I have 10K to get into the WSOP, then I can afford to lose. Yeah, it's ten thousand dollars, but I wouldn't be in the ME if I couldn't afford to lose it. Besides, depending on the situation, I might have paid $100 in a satellite to get in, gotten lucky, etc....If you lose, then you lose, that's why it's gambling. So, just call, and hope they hold up.
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#52 JSHamm

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 08:07 AM

By folding this 60/40 edge you've resigned yourself psychologically to playing scared. Let's say it was only a $5 sit n go and somehow you know the opponent had QJh. Would you call? I know I would; it's only a $5 SNG. Of course, $10,000 can't really compare to $5 but that's exactly the point. You can't let the buy-in amount affect your game at all. Whether you're first out or get knocked out on the bubble you'll make zero. The whole point of any tournament is to end up with all the chips BY making positive equity decisions.Sometimes you get lucky and other times unlucky, but hopefully you'll make correct choices and that's the best you can do.
QUOTE(Mr. Sparco @ Tuesday, September 25th, 2007, 9:17 AM) View Post
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#53 Tigerlite

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 09:08 AM

This is really not that difficult a situation. You know what your opponent has and you are a 3 to 2 favorite against that hand. So you are ahead. At some point in the tournament, you will need to gamble to accumulate chips and to win. It's as simple as that. In this case, you have been given a golden opportunity by your opponent because em has exposed em's hand. This is a simple call. The fact that there is a 40% risk should not deter a call. If I knew he had a made hand pre-flop, I think that this would be an entirely different situation. Also, the fact that all other players have mucked prior to the blinds makes it seem likely that no one had an ace so I would have three outs there. It is more likely that players mucked a king, queen or jack, especially on the first hand of the WSOP.

View PostTigerlite, on Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 11:04 AM, said:

This is really not that difficult a situation. You know what your opponent has and you are a 3 to 2 favorite against that hand. So you are ahead. At some point in the tournament, you will need to gamble to accumulate chips and to win. It's as simple as that. In this case, you have been given a golden opportunity by your opponent because em has exposed em's hand. This is a simple call. The fact that there is a 40% risk should not deter a call. If I knew he had a made hand pre-flop, I think that this would be an entirely different situation. Also, the fact that all other players have mucked prior to the blinds makes it seem likely that no one had an ace so I would have three outs there. It is more likely that players mucked a king, queen or jack, especially on the first hand of the WSOP.
Oh, and I forgot to add that with Phil and Gus at the table, two famously aggressive players, I would bet that they would not have mucked an ace or a king, jack type of hand.

#54 rog

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 09:47 AM

I would call in a heartbeat. Folding here is a scared play. If you think Hansen and Ivey are going to give you a whole lot of better places to get your money in, you're fooling yourself. I dont know Ivey's style, but Gus will be in a LOT of pots. If you dont gamble with a positive edge, you may as well read a book until they move you. Doubling up now will tell Gus et al that you aren't afraid to get your chips in, AND it will put you in a position where nobody can attack any more than half your stack...at least until someone catches up.A call is HUGELY +EV. Early in a tourney, equity is closely represented by stack size. Given that, doubling up 60% of the time increases your equity by 20% to 12k. If I get the opportunity to make 2k in equity in 2 minutes of play at the ME, I'd be a fool to pass it up. Plus if I bust out, I haven't wasted 5 days donking off my equity.
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#55 dumbnjaded

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 10:01 AM

It's risk-reward, basically. Being an extremely deep-stacked tournament, and having the opportunity to double-up and being the big stack at a table with Ivey and Hansen gives you room to see a couple more flops and get unlucky or make a couple mistakes without your chip stack being too afflicted. The risk? A possible inevitability that probably will happen sometime between the first hand and the third or fourth day... being sent home down 10k. I say why the hell not?

#56 dkelloway

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 11:07 AM

I'm calling...NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

#57 Acid_Knight

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 11:25 AM

View Postrog, on Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 10:47 AM, said:

I would call in a heartbeat. Folding here is a scared play. If you think Hansen and Ivey are going to give you a whole lot of better places to get your money in, you're fooling yourself. I dont know Ivey's style, but Gus will be in a LOT of pots. If you dont gamble with a positive edge, you may as well read a book until they move you. Doubling up now will tell Gus et al that you aren't afraid to get your chips in, AND it will put you in a position where nobody can attack any more than half your stack...at least until someone catches up.A call is HUGELY +EV. Early in a tourney, equity is closely represented by stack size. Given that, doubling up 60% of the time increases your equity by 20% to 12k. If I get the opportunity to make 2k in equity in 2 minutes of play at the ME, I'd be a fool to pass it up. Plus if I bust out, I haven't wasted 5 days donking off my equity.
Where do you come up with that? Also, you don't "make 2K in 2 minutes" because you still have to outlast 10,000 more people. I'm not saying don't call, I'm just saying that the increased edge isn't nearly as big, or as easily defined as you have it here.

#58 shpaget

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 01:24 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, September 14th, 2006, 11:25 AM, said:

Where do you come up with that? Also, you don't "make 2K in 2 minutes" because you still have to outlast 10,000 more people. I'm not saying don't call, I'm just saying that the increased edge isn't nearly as big, or as easily defined as you have it here.
He's talking about chip equity, not money equity.....the problem is, they're not equal (ie. in wsop me 06, the winner got 90 million chips, but only 12 million dollars).60% of the time you get 20000 chips...40% you get 0 chips...meaning your equity is 12000.Another way to look at it...60% of the time you go +10000 = +600040% of the time you go -10000 = -4000The total EV is +2000...ergo, 12000. (actually slightly less because you've already committed 50 chips)Another way to look at it...if you played this tournament every month, and this exact scenario happened everytime, averaged out it would be like you started with 12k vs. everyone else's 10k, for every tournament.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#59 Acid_Knight

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 02:58 PM

I know how to calculate equity and EV. I think he's confused because he has equity in the POT, but at this stage, his equity in the tournament is altered by such a small amount that it almost doesn't matter.He increases his chip stack by 20% (on average, by calling) which is not the same as increasing his equity by 20%.He also comments that if he "busts, he won't waste 5 days donking off his equity" but really it takes 3 days to really gain any true measurable equity in the tournament becuase it's not until day 3 that you get into the money and can actually assign a monetary value to your chips because you are guaranteed to get paid for them.

#60 David_Nicoson

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Posted 14 September 2006 - 05:00 PM

View Postshpaget, on Wednesday, September 13th, 2006, 10:45 PM, said:

Several answers:1. Why not?
Because some people might hesitate to give an opinion contrary to Daniel's.

Quote

Are you that insecure that it would change your answer?
no.

Quote

A good dozen people have responded "fold" since I posted this...it is, after all, a poll, and simply because DN says "call" doesn't mean it's correct....that I agree with his article is irrelevent. If you do these quizzes just to see if you give the same answer as DN, then you can continue being a sycophant...I do the quizzes to see what people say, and what intelligent opinions are generated, both in agreement and disagreement with DN's eventual answer.2. To see if DN has changed his mind since he wrote that.
You can see that if you don't post the article here.

Quote

3. To generate discussion.
That was the purpose of the question as well, and I think DN is perfectly capable of putting his own answer in the question if that's what he wanted.

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4. To cut to the chase.5. Because.
That's not a reason.
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