Could I Do It

[Zach6668 513]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)UTG+1 ($97)MP1 ($226.75)MP2 ($97)Hero ($138.55)Button ($38)SB ($27.25)BB ($107.65)UTG ($114.50)Preflop: Hero is CO with K , K . 2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $20, Hero raises to $40, MP1 raises to $82, Hero ... ($100ish left)I almost timed out getting GT+ up during this hand. Does anyone fold here vs a random?What stats do you need to be facing to fold?I think the best play is to probably push. This is about as close as I've ever come to folding KK preflop. If I had rock stats from him, I probably would have.Thoughts?- Zach

[brunkindoy 0]

Against an unknown I push and pray he's overplaying his AK which alot of these guys will do at .5/1. I'm sure you've even seen these plays from QQ at these limits. I'm not sure what stats you'd need to fold but I've never been a big stat guy I go more with my gut instincts. If you think your'e beat you probably are but I would push here. I just noticed his stack size it looks like he's probably willing to gamble a bit and try to steal this one.

[krup24 0]

I can fold this hand here but I tend to over respect big stacks at ptsI think if the villian has half his stack I call but again ISAP

[brunkindoy 0]

I think its the stack size that makes it an easy push. He can get away from AK here if you push and you still take a nice pot without having to sweat and if he does call great you're still in good shape against AK you're only really worried about AA. A smaller stack is gonna have to call you which is also fine but if you aren't in position to double up the reward isnt quite as great.

[Sefaje 0]

lol wait. 4xBB, 3x r RR, min raise, min raise, min raisefold

[brunkindoy 0]

lol The small raises don't tell me too much other than he might be willing to give it up to a push. If he minraised from the beginning then I'd definitely think ok this donks got AA but now they just kinda look like "oh man I keep raising with my AK why won't he fold....wtf....go away I HAVE AK"edit: Might also realize hes in trouble with QQ and now be trying to represent AA but it looks like AK or another KK to me. I'm curious as to how this turned out and if he actually had the AA.

[Jordan 1]

Push n pray...hehe, i don't know..that's really weird with all the min raising...hard to say, I'd prob put it in.- Jordan

[reverbse 0]

at an 8-handed table someone is going to have aces approximately every thirtiest time that you´re holding kings. imo your stack gets shorter the moment you even start to think about folding. the reraise to 82 looks a little as if he doesn´t really know what to do with his hand (prolly not aces then) or is just a weird misclick/slide. why did you min-reraise?

[Sefaje 0]

agreed. this has me slightly baffled, although the reason i say fold is you gotta figure he has AK, KK, AA.... surely not QQ, but surprises definitely happen.(assuming youre both all in, your percentages are) if he has AK, 69% - 66% (depending on suits) if he has AA, 17% - 18.5% (depending on suits) if he has KK, 50% average the 3 and you get 45%. but also remember that you have KK, so hands where he has a king are much less likely. so you're doing less than 45% over time.so basically running your KK against these three hands randomly loses over time. the trick is that you already have 29% of your stack in. so do you lose enough to make it worth dumping 29% of your stack now? the pot before you go all in is 122 and you have 98 left. so gambling your last 98 would be about 2.8:1 on your money.so you're getting 2.8:1 on your last 98 if you guys go all in, and i figure you're doing somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-40% to win. heh, this one is close. very odd situation. please post the results!

[Zach6668 513]

at an 8-handed table someone is going to have aces approximately every thirtiest time that you´re holding kings. imo your stack gets shorter the moment you even start to think about folding. the reraise to 82 looks a little as if he doesn´t really know what to do with his hand (prolly not aces then) or is just a weird misclick/slide. why did you min-reraise?

I did not min reraise once.I do admit, my raise to $40 was pretty weak though.I almost pushed there, but the stacks were too deep. I almost timed out at that point as I was trying to get GT+ up, so it was a quick slide...lolI think I've let this go on long enough.I actually just called the $42 more, leaving like $57 behind, instead of pushing, for no real reason, as I'm pretty well committed on any flop. Either way, I was getting it all in.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)UTG+1 ($97)MP1 ($226.75)MP2 ($97)Hero ($138.55)Button ($38)SB ($27.25)BB ($107.65)UTG ($114.50)Preflop: Hero is CO with K , K . 2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $20, Hero raises to $40, MP1 raises to $98, Hero calls $42.Flop: ($181.50) T , 2 , J (2 players)MP1 bets $57, Hero calls $56.55 (All-In).Turn: ($295.05) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)River: ($295.05) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: $295.05MP1 has As Qd (one pair, queens). The Moral of this Story: Do not fold KK preflop.

[Zach6668 513]

agreed. this has me slightly baffled, although the reason i say fold is you gotta figure he has AK, KK, AA.... surely not QQ, but surprises definitely happen.(assuming youre both all in, your percentages are) if he has AK, 69% - 66% (depending on suits) if he has AA, 17% - 18.5% (depending on suits) if he has KK, 50% average the 3 and you get 45%. but also remember that you have KK, so hands where he has a king are much less likely. so you're doing less than 45% over time.so basically running your KK against these three hands randomly loses over time. the trick is that you already have 29% of your stack in. so do you lose enough to make it worth dumping 29% of your stack now? the pot before you go all in is 122 and you have 98 left. so gambling your last 98 would be about 2.8:1 on your money.so you're getting 2.8:1 on your last 98 if you guys go all in, and i figure you're doing somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-40% to win. heh, this one is close. very odd situation. please post the results!

Your math is flawed.There are 6 combos of AA, 8 combos of AK, 1 combo of KK. So his range consists of 15 hands.6/15, we are ~19%, 8/15, we are 70%, and 1/15, we are 50%. So our equity vs his range would be 6/15(19) + 8/15(70) + 1/15(50) = 7.6 + 37.3 + 3.3 = 48.2%So we are clearly getting the right odds once we are this deep to push. HOWEVER, normal players don't play AK like this. If we have AK, I think we need QQ in here as well, which makes us an overwhelming favorite.- Zach

[Sefaje 0]

ick, you're right. i had a feeling when i was doing that that i was off because i wasnt thinking AAAAKK - choose two.and about the QQ, i feel like he's likely to have just pushed by now with QQ, whereas AK/KK/AA are more likely to be this silly - especially AK.again, curiously awaiting the results of this one.

[Zach6668 513]

again, curiously awaiting the results of this one.

Look a couple posts above you

[Sefaje 0]

holy hell, AQ? rofl. i guess i was sorta right about more likely to be AK than QQ or KK, but i never woulda thought AQ.im glad to see that my bad math was only off by 3% also, although where the mistake came in was after i assumed the 45% was a higher estimate than it should have been due to KK being out of the deck.anyway, very strange hand. thanks for posting it, and for correcting my analysis

[Zach6668 513]

holy hell, AQ? rofl. i guess i was sorta right about more likely to be AK than QQ or KK, but i never woulda thought AQ.im glad to see that my bad math was only off by 3% also, although where the mistake came in was after i assumed the 45% was a higher estimate than it should have been due to KK being out of the deck.anyway, very strange hand. thanks for posting it, and for correcting my analysis

Btw, that math, I did it manually, but http://pokerstove.com has a program that will do it. I checked it after, and my numbers were very close. It's an extraordinarily useful program, I'd recommend downloading it.- Zach

[reverbse 0]

I did not min reraise once.

oops, misread.AQ? this guy is confused

[LongLiveYorke 38]

Nice hand, Zach. You (he) had me convinced he had AA.Never underestimate the stupidity of players when holding KK, I guess.

[brunkindoy 0]

holy hell, AQ? rofl. i guess i was sorta right about more likely to be AK than QQ or KK, but i never woulda thought AQ.

Don't you love watching luckboxes misplay hands with big stacks

[MasterLJ 0]

I could never fold KK heads-up.Even if you were up against someone with 2% PFR, that's the top 3.38 hands (AA,KK,QQ and sometimes JJ). You beat him about as often as he beats you, and the fact that it's 3.38 hands and not 3, means that sometimes this is AK/JJ and is what makes it profitable.The only way I'd even consider folding KK pre-flop HU is if I'm against someone with < 1% PFR over a very very large sample (10k+).

[subsin 0]

woulda sucked cuz AK woulda beat you too

[DrZebra 0]

woulda sucked cuz AK woulda beat you too

so would 8-9 and 10-2 and 6-2...oh man... you lucky dog

[fckthis 0]

Wow. If I didnt see results, I mightve said too many raises not to be legit. Man people suck.

[JMoney2681 0]

I could never fold KK heads-up.Even if you were up against someone with 2% PFR, that's the top 3.38 hands (AA,KK,QQ and sometimes JJ). You beat him about as often as he beats you, and the fact that it's 3.38 hands and not 3, means that sometimes this is AK/JJ and is what makes it profitable.The only way I'd even consider folding KK pre-flop HU is if I'm against someone with < 1% PFR over a very very large sample (10k+).

Yes, but this also depends on how deep the stacks are really. In a short stacked situation, it's an instacall or instapush, but with real deep stacks, folding seems easier in very certain situations.

woulda sucked cuz AK woulda beat you too

I hope you aren't serious...I mean, I know AK would win with the nut straight versus Zach's KK, but your reply is just....

so would 8-9 and 10-2 and 6-2...oh man... you lucky dog

OK, he got you...fair enough....I was going to, but Dr. did the job.

[simo_8ball 1]

Where did you dig this thread up from and why?

[Verdimme 0]

Where did you dig this thread up from and why?

http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=77141I guess because of this.