22 replies to this topic

[looshle]

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is Button with 2:heart: , A:heart:. UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: (6 SB) T:heart:, 5:heart:, A:club: (6 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.Turn: (5 BB) 9:spade: (4 players)SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, SB folds, UTG+2 folds.River: (7 BB) 7:club: (2 players)MP2 bets, Hero calls.Final Pot: 9 BBWhat do you do on the flop? I figured with so many people behind me calling would build a nice pot if I hit the flush but I know the mp2 was capable of making that bet with 2nd pair.

[Absolute]

I would raise the flopcall the turncall the river

[Petoria]

There's not much you can do here, I think you just have to pay it off. You made the correct play on the flop, by just calling. If you make your hand, you're going to get paid off. Sometimes playing correctly just doesn't win on a given hand.

[wrto4556]

Raise the flop. You flopped huge. With all the calls preflop, I figure a few people will come along for two on the flop.

[Petoria]

Since you can be pretty sure that you're not ahead on the flop, there's no use in raising. You have to hit your hand anyway, and you're not going to take down as big of a pot.If you think raising will keep ppl in, then do it, but it doesn't look like it would've. You might also buy yourself a free card on the turn. Might be a good idea, but I'm not really that great of a limit player, so you might want to trust wrto and absolute on this one

[looshle]

Petoria said:

There's not much you can do here, I think you just have to pay it off. You made the correct play on the flop, by just calling. If you make your hand, you're going to get paid off. Sometimes playing correctly just doesn't win on a given hand.

I understand that and I have no problem losing a hand like this, just wondering if raising might have been better and if so, why?

[KDawgCometh]

Absolute said:

I would raise the flopcall the turncall the river

raising the flop is a bad idea here as you only have one bet in front of you, by raising the flop you are shutting out everyone but MP2. Unfortunetly you don't get a good situation to raise to either get a free card or free showdon. I think you played it right because raising when the flop bettor is right infront of you only get him to ride along with you for the most part and you lose out on extra bets trhat people will call with

[Absolute]

KDawg I think there is another side to look at here.You want to protect your ace as well as getting value with the hearts.I think the raise isolates any marginal hands and could get one extra call outside of the MP (I think the chances of any of the checkers calling the one bet are about the same)You have top pair with twelve outs, nine of them to the nuts.You have to raise.

[Wily]

looshle said:

Petoria said:

There's not much you can do here, I think you just have to pay it off. You made the correct play on the flop, by just calling. If you make your hand, you're going to get paid off. Sometimes playing correctly just doesn't win on a given hand.

I understand that and I have no problem losing a hand like this, just wondering if raising might have been better and if so, why?

For value and for a free card, if you want it. Even the fishiest players know to fold most hands when a third suited card comes down, so you won't get much value if your heart comes. With more than two players in the hand, and with a 1/3 chance of hitting your flush, you're definitely getting value for your raise. Most players think, in for the call, in for the raise, so you want to raise here. Also, you are last to act in this hand, I believe. If the turn is not a heart, you can choose to check it through. However, this play is marginal in your situation since you do have TP, although with no kicker. I'd check it through the turn, though, since I'm cautious, and call one bet on the river if no heart appears. Hope this helps from a frequent limit player.

[RISEorFall]

this could go either way, but i think i would lean toward raising. yes you might get a few people to drop, but you might get another bad ace (which happens to be better than yours) to drop as well. if they had checked the flop waiting to see if their ace w/ bad kicker was any good, a bet and then a raise would probably tell them no. of course, they wont always fold, in which case you have lots of outs, and they'll be putting in a few more bets for you if you do hit the turn or river hard. on the other hand, you could get reraised, and might not end up with the correct odds to call and try and hit your flush, im not really sure (more of a strategy guy than a math guy).

[wrto4556]

on the flop you are a 45% favorite to win against AK HU.If you think only one other person will come along, raising has value. Also, he doesn't necissarily have to have an A, too.The only reason I might think calling would be better is because the pot is a little too small to be aggressive.thoughts?

[Absolute]

no you were correct even before you started thinking more about it

[KDawgCometh]

wrto4556 said:

on the flop you are a 45% favorite to win against AK HU.If you think only one other person will come along, raising has value. Also, he doesn't necissarily have to have an A, too.The only reason I might think calling would be better is because the pot is a little too small to be aggressive.thoughts?

yeah. I want more for the ride. It wasn't raised PF so your ace could very well be the only ace out there. I want to maximize my winnigs in this hand and raising when only one bettor is in front of you isn't as +ev as just calling and letting in other callers. You raise to get more money into the pot, and I don't think you'll get more into the pot here by raising, calling is your best option

[wrto4556]

OK, this is bugging me so i'm busting out the math.I ran a few simulations.A T 5 P1: A 2 P2: A 9 P2: K J P3: Q T P1 wins 50% of the time. Pretty big equity edge, no? Better than getting it heads up, and that's a fact.A T 5 P1: A 2 P2: 5 5 P3: Q J P4: K T P1 only wins 30% of the time.A T 5 P1: A 2 P2: K T P3: 5 4 P4: K J P1 wins 67% of the time. This is where it all gets iffy. If you have the best hand at the moment or not. :? If you do, you want to raise because protecting your hand becomes more profitable than exploiting an equity edge. So, for fairness between when opponent has a set and when your ace is good, we will say, for the calculation, that hero wins 50% of the time (sound fair?).So,by calling and letting (assumably) 2 other people in (along with the original raiser) you will make...3(.50)-1(.50)=1 +EVIf only one other person calls you make...2(.50)-1(.50)=.50 +EVby raising and only letting in one other person in you will make...4(.50)-2(.50)=1 +EVIf you get it heads up2(.50)-2(.50)=0.00 NeutralNow, because you are raising and making people call two bets cold, I will assume that only one will call often enough to take into concideration. If everyone would call that raise it would be a clear raise, but that's not the case.If my calculations are correct, smooth calling shows a higher +EV over the long haul.

[looshle]

Awesome post wrto, that's why you're essential to the forum.

[Absolute]

That was a pretty solid post.Do you have a program to help with such things?

[KramitDaToad]

wrto, nice post but you've missed a couple of points.1) a raise might actually win the pot for you right there - a call obviously can't do this2) the raise might buy you a free card 3) a lot of hands you've pointed out may call a bet but will fold to a raise, so your pot equity goes up

[Smasharoo]

You should raise the turn to protect your now very vunerable hand.Calling the flop is fine, raising is fine too. It's so close as to be meaningless. Flip a coin.

[wrto4556]

KramitDaToad said:

1) a raise might actually win the pot for you right there - a call obviously can't do this

That's unlikely though.

KramitDaToad said:

2) the raise might buy you a free card

Yeah yeah yeah. :-)

KramitDaToad said:

3) a lot of hands you've pointed out may call a bet but will fold to a raise, so your pot equity goes up

This is what I really wanted to talk about. How does your pot equity go up. If those hands are folded you will be putting in 50% of the money on a 46% chance. If you let them in, you are putting in 25% of the money on a 46% chance. Explain, por favor.Unless you mean that your win % goes up and i'm confused on terms, but wouldn't it be better to have a larger equity edge?

[KramitDaToad]

wrto4556 said:

KramitDaToad said:

3) a lot of hands you've pointed out may call a bet but will fold to a raise, so your pot equity goes up

This is what I really wanted to talk about. How does your pot equity go up. If those hands are folded you will be putting in 50% of the money on a 46% chance. If you let them in, you are putting in 25% of the money on a 46% chance. Explain, por favor.Unless you mean that your win % goes up and i'm confused on terms, but wouldn't it be better to have a larger equity edge?

What I'm saying here is that by reducing the number of contenders for a pot your are increasing your equity share in the existing pot. Based upon your opponents holding, sometimes this increase is minimal, sometimes it isn't.It is a change though and can effect your EV.For example in your first hand if you get the last 2 players to fold and get heads up against the A9s your chance of winning (and thus pot equity) goes up to54% a 4% gain - not much and at a cost of an extra bet is probably a -EV move.But take this handHero: A 2 Opp1: A 6 Opp2: K Q Opp3: Q T A raise might conceivably knock out all but the KQs which improves your chances of winning from 50% to 87%. So for 1 extra bet you gain an extra 40% of the existing pot and all but wrap up the hand, a huge gain.Whether or not its positive EV is a measure of the cost vs the gain.All that said, the whole point of my post was to get you thinking outside the problem at hand. I wasn't suggesting which play was correct and which play wasn't. As Smash pointed out the only real mistake you can make here is folding and JFarrell20 is the only poster here likely to do that You put a lot of work into solving a problem, however that working comes up short. Then you get some encouragement from other posters which will reinforce the fact that your work was meritted. Don't take this the wrong way - I'm not flaming. I'm trying to encourage a broader way of thinking (journey to the next level grasshoper. 8) )There are a large number of variables in this hand - I pointed out 3 easy ones that your workings don't cater for, and there are many more.Quite often problems like this can't be solved easily and need to be run through simulators covering all reasonable eventualities to come at an answer. Unless this interests you, leave this stuff to the Caros and Sklanskys and just read their results.This is fine when the answer is like it is here - a coin flip, however over analysing a complex problem will often lead to an incorrect answer, and because you've put a lot of effort into the thought process, you and those who read it, will assume it to be correct. Also because it is a lot of effort to work through you will be unlikely to revisit it, and more importantly it will stick in your mind and the 'incorrect' answer will travel with you.What I am suggesting, is that you learn to recognise these overly complex situations and as you are a good player, trust your instincts.

wrto4556 said:

Raise the flop. You flopped huge. With all the calls preflop, I figure a few people will come along for two on the flop.

Your instincts will tell you if you should question a play. If this is the case, hit it up on the forum and get the books off the shelf and discuss it conceptually. Avoid the dangers of oversimplifying and attempting a 'pen & paper' solution.