6 replies to this topic

[Actuary]

should I have cooperated ?

$33 6 Man on Party.

2 Pay

$108 / $72.


Blinds:

Button: 8100.
SB: 800
Me: 3100

I have QTo

Button makes it 725 to go
SB pushes.
Me ?

Blinds 100 / 200.

SB has been tight/paasive

We've whittled him down, as much as I could with BiggyStax there between us.


Do I impact the chance of eliminating SB enough to risk being down at 2300 with him there as well?

I'm getting ~ 1700 : 600

My gu says I need about 1000 more chips in my stack to make this call, due to the 1200 swing it has in my chip lead over SB if he wins ( 600 from me, 600 to him )

good ole ICM should help here!

[Actuary]

so I did the ICM under the 5 scenarios:

Call and win
Call and Button wins
Call and SB wins
Fold and Button wins
Fold and SB wins


And then assigned %'s to the 3 call scenarios and then the 2 Fold scenario to get the EV for each case. It's close. Very close.

But looks like folding is slightly better.
But without PS, I'm just guesing at win% and putting in guesses, like Me 20%, SB 45% and Button 35% for one trial and if I fodl those hands, I'm taking 45/(45+35) to get SB's chances HU against Button. Not sure if assuming I impct each of them equally is correct.

[copernicus]

Im surprised this is close on your ICM calculations. Since 1st is a remote possibility under any scenario the major impact is going to be for 2d place, and I would have thought that maintaining a 2900/1600 lead if SB prevails is much more powerful than risking going to 2300/2400, given that QTo is a marginal hand.

There is also some risk that Button wont cooperate if he has a monster, and you wind up pissing away the chips without gaining anything for them. Why didnt he go all the way to 800? Is that a message that he is marginal and inviting you to call? Or is it more than 3x indicating strength and that hes focused on you, knowing that hes probably elminating SB if he calls?

Usually when I want to cooperate I bet the exact amount of the small stack, and if I want to isolate then exceed that somewhat.

Off to SnGPT...brb..bak.

Well SnGPT wont permit this exact scenario (even letting the big stack push all the way to 800). However just going HU vs the small stack is a huge negative EV, even with him on maniac setting. Again on the reasoning that even picking up an extra 800 chips from the big stack doesnt help that much in a HU battle for first (and then further diluting it by the potential of a small stack win), if HU vs the small stack is very negative, then playing against both cant be much better and is probably worse.

[Actuary]

Im surprised this is close on your ICM calculations. Since 1st is a remote possibility under any scenario the major impact is going to be for 2d place,

if I win, it impacts First quite a bit!

I was hoping for some expereinced insight o ranges to say how much QT helps to eliminate SB. I realize it's marginal; yet, say SB has 99, then QT hurts him substantially if Butto had AJ for xample.

of course, it could be S has KK. and Button had TT

[Actuary]

Button: A7
SB: 88

we cheked it down.
SB won.
I bubbled.

[Briguy]

I think it's usually a call, results notwithstanding. If SB wins, he has 2400 to your 2300, which doesn't seem like that much of an advantage.

SB's style/ability plays into this, though. Has he been successfully stealing from you during the tourney, when not short-stacked? You from him? If you've been able to steal from him with relative impunity, calling and losing is way less harmful. If he's been stealing from and confounding you (prior to being so short), calling and losing is a mini disaster.

[copernicus]

I think it's usually a call, results notwithstanding. If SB wins, he has 2400 to your 2300, which doesn't seem like that much of an advantage.

SB's style/ability plays into this, though. Has he been successfully stealing from you during the tourney, when not short-stacked? You from him? If you've been able to steal from him with relative impunity, calling and losing is way less harmful. If he's been stealing from and confounding you (prior to being so short), calling and losing is a mini disaster.

a 2 to 1 chip lead is huge vs 50/50 especially with Ms less than 10 and a big stack out there who can enter a lot of pots. The lead gives you the ability to pass on some marginal hands that the small stack might be forced to play and that neither of you would want to play tied in chips. As I said in my initial response, I dont think this was close to a call.