49 replies to this topic

[SexyStudThang]

OK I was playing in a $50 sit n go on party to relieve some tilt that I'd been experiencing at the cash tables I had been playing at. Sit n gos allow you to play the game a lot more than that cards, so I enjoy them from time to time, although the party structure isnt the greatest, at least you get 1000 chip so there's 10k chips in play as opposed to the 800 at the lower stakes games. Anyway, we were four handed and the chip stacks were....Big Blind: 910Small Blind: 3700Button (Me): 2900UTG: 2400 Now in my experience the $50 and $100 Sit n gos are notorious for having extremely lengthy shorthanded play, as many of the players are playing above their means by a lot, and the money means a great deal to their bankroll, so we'd been playing for quite a while and reached the blind level of 150/300 when the following hand came up....Blinds: 300/600My hand: QQThe pocket queens pop up on the screen with that delightful popping noise, and Im a happy person. The UTG player folds to me on the button and I decide that Im going to raise to 910 for two reasons: I have the chip leader on my left and if he picks up a hand the the blind decides to fold, I could be knocked out outside the money when there was really no need for me to do so, and I wanted to make it clear I was after the small stack rather than the big stack's blind. He immediately goes all in behind me for his entire stack, and the small blind CALLS the all in. I go into the tank as much as can be done with the limited time available online, and think about the possibilities. If I win, I win the tournament more than likely considering I'd have almost 4/5 of the chips at the table, but what if I lose? In order for me to not make the money the Small stack has to beat the big stack and the big stack has to beat me. It seemed awfully unlikely that I would come in third place with Queens, but it's possible, this would leave me with 4th place and no prize money for my efforts. But if the big stack wins, then I still get third place, which is likely even if I let them play simply because my stack would have dwindled to 1800. So the outcomes if I call could be...1. The big stack makes the best of the three hands leaving me with $100 prize money.2. The small stack makes the best of the three hands, but I beat the big stack: I now have 3600 Chips and Im the new chip leader. 3. The small stack makes the best of the three hands, but the chip leader beats me in the side pot. 4. I win the hand, and I now have just under 4/5 of the chips, putting me in a great position to win the $250And if I fold...I have 1800 chips and....1. The Small stack triples up to 2730or2. The big stack wins and I have 1800 chips left, the small stack. Of course I wasnt able to weigh all of this so quickly, and I decided that it would be wrong for me to lay down Queens in this position simply because I'd already invested a third of my stack and the blinds are just too high on party. The small stack had 33, the big stack had AK clubs, and the board came KK86T three clubs, so AK kinda destroyed the hand and I finished in third. It would be nice to hear some thoughts on how this hand played out. Also note that I dont agree with the small stack play there, he has to know he's drawing to two outs, and he should fold given the chance that I might call if the big stack moves there, however I dont think the big stack should move in there either, he should call and entice the small blind into the hand so we can check it down, and if he hits a monster like that then he can try and extract money. Anyway, just trying to see what you out there think about this hand...-Brent

[srblan]

You did not really mention what your goal was. Your small raise, you stated, was to indicate your desire to go after the small stack. When the big stack went all in, that goal went out the window. Now, you are put to the test, do you want to give the big stack a chance to knock out the small stack or do you want to give yourself the best chance of winning the whole thing. If you decide that you want to go for the win, then a call is clearly warranted. If you think that you can outplay your opponents, then folding makes sense, since it will give you the chance to survive and maybe move up two places instead of just one. I HATE the small stack's move here. He is in the small blind and he could fold and it would give him a few more free hands to pick up a hand big enough to make a stand with. Calling all in with a pair of threes is simply terrible in this spot.

[SexyStudThang]

Basically in any given situation I want what's best for my bankroll, and Im not sure which play gives the better EV in that situation because I dont feel like doing the math to figure it out!!!! And I dont think the fact that I can outplay my opponents if I fold has THAT much bearing on the decision, because I only have 6 BB's left if I fold there, not enough for me to do any playing that's for sure! If this was pokerstars, where the attrition is smaller I would probably fold and pick a better spot....I dunno thanks for the input though

[Wilderness]

I think you played the hand alright. It seems to me that most of the time you will either place 3rd or gain chips rather than being knocked out in 4th so it wasn't a bad call at all. If you beat both hands, you would certainly be in a great position to win the tournament and like I said before, I think its a good call. What made it hard on you is that both the blinds misplayed their hands in my opinion. The small blind is far from a made hand with his AKs, so he's much better off just calling, not only to induce the big blind but also to see if his hand hits (obviously if he plays it that way, he's going to bet big after flop, which makes an easy laydown for you). Now, maybe the small blind thought you were trying to steal but I still don't like his play. However, after his all-in, I can't believe that the big blind went in with his little pair of 3's. Even if he thought one of you two was trying to steal, he's a coin flip *at best* and quite possibly in a lot of trouble.I wouldn't worry about your play that much, you were the favorite pre-flop but the small blind happened to hit a monster.

[GottaLovePoker]

I feel that the Big Stack made a much worse play than the small stack. You have to realize that they small stack was under 1K in chips. He did not have much more of a choice here. He has the chance to hit a set and he would TRIPLE up. I justtify the play but the BB and small stack. But when the big stack re raises like this he is saying that he is very confident that he has the best hand! He realizes that you are going after the small stack and he is basically telling you, NO i have AA or KK and i can take this guy out myself. It was a terrible play for a hand that was not already made. However if i was in your situation i would fold. I would assume that the big stack did have AA or KK. I would take the third place and my money and try to chip away at the big stack.

[rwood]

Because of the fact you are playing a sit n go, then making the money is the most important factor, although everyone should play for first, if you are 4 handed and a big decision comes up, your thoughts should be "am i making the right play to make the money?" Now having thought this, the chances of you being dominated by the small blind are miniscule, so you are at worst a coinflip, but most likely a 2-1 or even a 3-1 favorite. I dont like the bb's decision to move in on you here, but some players are more aggressive than others. But in this scenario, you have to put the sb on either pockets lower than yours making him a 4-1 dog, or AK AQ or even AJs or ATs, making you a favorite. Now, the good thing about the BB moving in is that gives you a better chance of knocking out the short stack, and unless he has AA or KK, which is highly unlikely, you are a slight favorite to win. with you winning you would have 4/5 of the chips, which would make you a shoe-in for 1'st. so with 4 players left, you are virtually getting a coinflip to win the tournament. also, with the odds you are getting layed: (910+910+3700=5520 chips already in the pot, you are getting about 2.5-1 on your last 1990, and you are most likely a little favorite to win everything, and a huge favorite to make the money) with the hand you described, you would have about a 45% odds of winning, and about 85% odds of making the money. So either way you look at it, you have to call in this spot, it would be putting yourself in great position to make the money, and win the S&G. Good Call!!!

[PokerEH.com]

I had a similar situation happen in a B&M tournament a few weeks back.. it was a full table, so there are differences, but I had QQ in EP, and raised about 4X the BB. The chip leader 2 seats to my left re-raised all in, and the action got back to me. In this situation, I have to ask myself.... Is this something this guy would do with JJ or worse? Especially because you are in a $50 SNG, as compared with, say, a $10 SNG. I ended up folding, (face up), and he flashed me KK. You have to think BEST CASE SCENERIO you are a coin flip v.s. AK, and worsecase scenerio you are as 41/2 to 1 dog v.s. overpair. Unless the other chipleader had shown you that he was a big bully, a fold is probibly warented. I think you were fortunate you were in a race v.s. AK. In tournaments, when someone wants to take on a shortstack, you should generally get out of the way. If you fold, you still have plenty of chips to go for 1st place in the tourny. Just my 2 cents

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

SexyStudThang...... it's tough typing that with a straight face At that point, knowing that if the big stack wins the hand I'll still place in the money, I wouldn't lay down the Qs either. My only suggestion for future play revolves around your comment that you wanted to make it clear with your bet that you were after the small stack and not the big stack's blind. I understand the advantages of calling/checking to see the flop so that it's two hands against the shortstack, but in my experience, any attempt to "show my purpose" to another player in a hand with a particular bet is met with aggression. If I'm large stack, and I have a decent hand, I'm not going to let you see a flop for the purposes of knocking a player out if I think I have a reasonable chance of getting YOUR chips as well.In this case, I'm sure that even an initial all-in bet on your part would have gotten a call from the AK (most players I've played with at any level will never lay this down, even if your bet indicates pocket aces or kings). However, I would caution against simply betting the size of the short stack with players left to act, because it advertises a desire to get the pot heads up, and might convey weakness where you'd actually PREFER to convey strength and drive out any overcards.

[Smasharoo]

Easy fold for you.The biggest stack moving all in is really enough for you to lay this down unless he's hyper agressive, and even then it's close once the small stack calls. Sit and Gos are a zero sum game. Finishing fourth is the same as finishing 10th. Calling all your chips here is mistake. You have to put the big stack very likely on two overcards, and the small stack on nearly anything. The best case scenario for you is that they both have AK, the worst case is that one of them happens to have KK or AA. Looking at what actually occured, which is probably the most likely result, two overcards and a smaller PP you're going up against 8 outs five times.Too much risk here. In a sit and go you want to secure 3rd, then play for 1st and pretty much ignore second. Let the big stack isolate the smaller stack, who likely has the weakest hand and hope he takes him out.

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

Smasharoo,It's a risk, of course... but if either you, with your Queens, or the big stack, who has also pushed, has a big enough hand to knock out the short stack, then you DO finish in the money. Let's say you put the short stack on a smaller pocket pair or two face cards. Do you really want to leave it up to the big stack alone to push out the small stack when you could force the small stack to play against potentially two premium hands? The only way you don't place in this scenario is if the short stack wins the hand and you lose the side pot.The only way I can rationalize a fold here is if I put the short stack on Kings or Aces, and have sufficient reason to believe I'm no better than a coin flip against the big stack.

[Smasharoo]

The only way I can rationalize a fold here is if I put the short stack on Kings or Aces, and have sufficient reason to believe I'm no better than a coin flip against the big stack.You don't fold this if you're playing the hands face up and see that the big stack has Aces?Seriously?Why are you so eager to finish third here? Why didn't you push pre-flop if you wanted to isolate the small stack? So you could fold to an all in move by the one stack that can end your game. You happen to know that the big stack flipped over AK. If he flipped over AA or KK this is a much more boring post, isn't it? Giving yourself chances to get eliminated on the bubble of sit and gos is pointless. Was your goal to finish 3rd? If so, mission accomplished. I do understand your argument here, and you are in good position to win if your hand holds up here, in a cash game I call here without thinking about it. This isn't a cash game, however. If 4th place paid something, I'd call in a second also.It's just not worth the risk, however slight of getting eliminated in 4th here. The only way your call makes sense is if you finnish in 4th less often by calling than you do by folding.I don't think that's the case here, but you might be able to convince me with a good argument.Here's my reasoning:The vast majority of the time in this situation the big stacks standards for pushing after you bet out are going to be higher than the small stacks. Many times, the small stack is going to be dominated badly by a larger pair. It will be exceedingly rare that the small stack will be ahead when he makes this call and if he is it will be marginally so, a small pair vs AK.Thus, the vast maority of the time that you fold, you will be in 3rd place with a decent amount of chips. Some of the time you will be in fourth place with chips.None of the time will you be finishing in fourth place without chips because of that decision. You may end up finishing there, but it's clearly the minority of the time.When you call, some of the time you will be in 3rd place with a little more than double the chips you'd have had if you had folded. I think this will happen perhaps 40% of the time. Does that seem reasonable to you?I think that another 30% of the time you will have the result you had here, finishing third with no chips.Leaving about 30% of the time you finish 4th with no chips.Does that seem reasonable or do you think I'm overestimating your chances of failure?

[Chip_and_a_Chair]

You talked past my post... It wasn't about playing to win, it was about playing to finish in the money... 3rd. And yes, if I'm holding pocket queens, and I my opponents' cards are face-up and he's got AK, I still push, as I'm a favorite to win the hand.Check my original post... I'm only concerned about whether the short stack can beat queens. If I'm beaten by the big stack, then there's a pretty good chance between the 2 of us that the short stack will go out, leaving me at least a 3rd-place money finish. If we both bow out to the big stack, I'm the one who gets paid.

[SexyStudThang]

The more I consider this situation the more Im convinced that I made a correct call here. I'll explain why...4th: -$503rd: +$502nd: +$1001st: +$200Keeping these effects on the bankroll in mind I go into a thought process similar to what I was thinking at the time: what are my chances or no money here and what are my chances of winning money here? At no money the most that Im going to lose is $50, this is unfortunately the same as going out in 10th, but if I dont go out on this hand there's no more fighting...First thing that I lacked to post in my opening post was this WAS an agressive big stack, in fact that's how he got his chips, so I can't be assuming AA or KK here. In fact that was one thing I wanted to rule out of my thinking, simply because if Im unlucky enough to be up against AA or KK there, and the small stack has a hand that beats both QQ and one of those hands, then Im in a bad situation, and that's the end of it. So worst case here is this happening: If the BB has big cards then he's in trouble becuase he has to have AK if the big stack has KK, and if he has anything like KQ etc, then hes only drawing to running Ks against QQ and AA, a small chance to be sure.Now there's no way to effectively calculate the odds of who has what, but lets say there's a 40% chance that the big stack makes this move with AA or KK, and of that 40% half the time the BB has Big cards drawing to running outs to scoop the pot, and the other half of that he's got 2 outs to a set, that's about a 4% chance that the BB scoops this pot, not factoring in any chance of me hitting a set. Another scenario is like the one that happened, the BB has a small pair, the SB has overcards. Let's say this is 30% likely to be the case (Which I believe it's a lot more likely than AA/KK from the big stack, but for argument's sake to prove the point Im saying it's less). Of that 30% of the time 15% Im going to lose to the big stack, but the big stack also beats the small stack that same amount of time. only 6% of the time will the SB hit a set, so that's 3% chance that they'll both beat me, again assuming I will not flop a set ever. (This works exactly the same vice-versa, IE the big stack having the small pair and the small stack having overcards, more or less so we'll say they're the same thing.)And then there's the situation where they have only big cards. We're going to say they are sharing no cards with each other or me...I can't calculate the odds in my head so I'll use twodimes for this one and assume worst case scenario: AK and AJ suited different suits then each other or my queens with the small stack having the better hand. So of this 30% of the time, Im going to win both 15%, the big stack is gonna take 3% of the hands and the SB the remaining 12%, but since only the 3% where Im beat beat matters that's what we factor in. So this is a grand total of 10% of the time I am going to get no money here, and lose my buy in. I really dont feel like looking back over that to see how often I win both ways, but lets say that it's equal (Which it's most likely not.) This means 10% of the time Im almost assured the +$200, let's say I only win that 30% of the time (also highly unlikely). Lets say that other 70% I get 10% third, and 60% second, and the rest of the time I get third no matter what...10% : -$50 3% : +$2006%: +$10081%: +50These numbers are horrendously worst case based, and they still show an EV of +57.50: and that's again worst possible case off the top of my head. Im sure that EV on the call is actually much higher, my guess being more like +$80 - + $90, maybe more: and I dont think it's possible to get an EV anywhere near that high with folding and leaving 6BBs with how fast the blind attrition goes on party poker. I've done enough math for Christmas Eve, but if anyone still thinks this is a wrong call I'd be interested in an off the wall math explanation much like this one :wall: Anyway thanks for all the educated responses, they all got my brain cookin and that WAS the point of the post. Thanks and Happy Holidays.

[Smasharoo]

These numbers are horrendously worst case based, and they still show an EV of +57.50: and that's again worst possible case off the top of my head. Im sure that EV on the call is actually much higher, my guess being more like +$80 - + $90, maybe more: and I dont think it's possible to get an EV anywhere near that high with folding and leaving 6BBs with how fast the blind attrition goes on party poker. I've done enough math for Christmas Eve, but if anyone still thinks this is a wrong call I'd be interested in an off the wall math explanation much like this one I think what you're missing is the times you make this call and finish out third aren't +EV. They're neutral EV. All of those times, if you had fodled you'd be guranateed third and still have chips to attack for 1st.See what I'm saying? Counting finishing third as +EV makes no sense, because any time you would, you'd have been guranateed third anyway. The only +EV outcome is you beating the big stack. See what I mean? Your numbers are also seem farily random.only 6% of the time will the SB hit a set20% of the time a lower PP will make a set or better by the river. 12% of the time a small PP will FLOP a set.Unless I read that too fast and you were saying he'd only have a small PP less than 1/3 of the time, 6% isn't even vaguely correct.Smash.

[SexyStudThang]

It is messed up stupid math, gotta read it carefully. The 6% isnt the percentage of the 20%, It's saying Overall TOTAL for that series of hands 6% is the effect on the EV (So 6% of the full hunded, I figured that out by taking 20% of the 30% which is 6% total) like I said screwd up Im sure there was a better way I could put it. But I dont think that third can be considered a neutral EV, simply because I can't be guarnteed third by folding, the fact is that if the SB does win this hand then I am now the short stack, and I have to win a showdown to make it to the money. The big stack has to beat me for me to lose, I end up with more chips than I started if the small stack still beats me.That said the numbers are random other than the probability of certain hands being hit, I have no way to say that 40% of the time the Big Guy will have AA/KK, it just can't be done so I inserted those numbers in places and just picked a number that I thought seemed logical, and I said that...anyway hope that helps you see the numbers in a better light.

[copernicus]

before I look at the rest of the answers, I think this is an easy fold, and you give the reason why. The big stack would not be so aggressive with anything less than a premium hand. I would put him on nothing worse than Js and more likely As, Ks, Qs (unlikely with yours) or AK, AQ (again less likely and probably not strong enough anyway).you cant count on the small stack to duplicate any of his power cards, so you at best in a crap shoot with the big stack and possibly a 2/1 underdog. I play sng's to get in the money, not necessarily win. You earn a nice return on investment if you avoid coming in out of the money when you have good chances of at least third.

[Smasharoo]

But I dont think that third can be considered a neutral EV, simply because I can't be guarnteed third by foldingYou're missing it.Anytime you would have finsihed third by calling, you wouldbe in third with chips by folding.The big stack has you coevered.See what I'm saying? The small stack has allready called. If he doesn't have a better hand than the big stack he's going to lose and you finish at least third. That also has to happen for you to finish third by calling and loosing to the big stack as well. If you call beat the big stack but lose to the small stack you're better off than folding, but still not guranateed third. You should be looking at this hand as if the small stack's call never happened (aside from the overlay in the pot) your fate is up to the big stack. If it's +EV to call the big stack alone it's a +EV play. If it's -EV to call the big stack then it's a -EV play. See what I mean?The small stacks role is irrrelvant aside from the extra chips ini the pot. Consider:Beating the small stack and losing to the big stack is worse than folding.Beating the big stack and the small stack can only happen if you can beat the big stack.Beating the big stack and losing to the small stack can only happen if you can beat the big stack.Finishing 4th can only happen if the big stack beats you.Folding never puts you out of the money. Ever.Every time you call and end up third and out of chips, folding would be better.Everytime you you gain chips you must beat the big stacks hand.See what I mean?It's an easy call in a cash game against an agreesive player, but I still think it's a clear fold here if, even 20% of the time folding causes you to end up in 3rd with chips. The reality is that it's probably closer to 60% of the time that will be the case, because the short stack's pushing standards are almost allways goinng to be lower than the big stacks calling stadards.

[SexyStudThang]

This would be an easy fold if the small stack was NOT involved. This is something I dont think I addressed. If the small stack were not in the hand then I wouldnt want to be in the hand either, it's the simple fact that the small stack entered this hand that makes the hand demand a call. You're still wrong on the 3rd place finish being neutral EV, it's not any way you want to spin it, because the big stack beating the small stack does not necessarily mean that Im losing to the big stack with the queens that I folded. The fact remains that at the time of the decision I had $50 less than I started with, and at the end of the decision I would either have that same amount gone, $50 more than I started with, or more than that. I do not have that third place prize, nor am I guarnteed to win it when the hands are turned up no matter who had what hand, because hands are won and lost, that's why you have to base decisions on EV rather than best hand, that's why you play draws etc. Im sure we could argue this for days n days, and you'd never relenquish your position and even though I didnt have one until a few days ago, Im not going to change mine. I did the math, I gave the reasons, and that's the best I can do. If you dont see it Im sorry.

[Smasharoo]

This would be an easy fold if the small stack was NOT involved. This is something I dont think I addressed. If the small stack were not in the hand then I wouldnt want to be in the hand either, it's the simple fact that the small stack entered this hand that makes the hand demand a call. Please demonstrate for me a single outcome where calling is better because of the short stack being involved that doesn't involve you beating the big stack's hand.One.If you demonstrate one for me I'll relinquish the argument.Im sure we could argue this for days n days, and you'd never relenquish your position and even though I didnt have one until a few days ago, Im not going to change mine. I did the math, I gave the reasons, and that's the best I can do. If you dont see it Im sorry.I'm sure we could argue for days and days if you decided to argue that 2+2 was 97 when I said it was 4 too, that wouldn't make our two positions equivilent or of equal merit, however.

[CoranMoran]

This is how I assess the situation:

Quote

Big Blind: 910Small Blind: 3700Button (Me): 2900UTG: 2400  Blinds: 300/600

It's late in the tournament and we are approaching the money.The blinds are huge so no stack is comfortable.There are always 2 ways of playing in these positions:--> Sit tight and hold on until someone else gets knocked out. You can squeeze into the money this way, but others will increase their stacks leaving you with less hope of finishing first.--> Play your cards aggressively and squash the other players yourself. If done successfully, your chips stack will grow and put you in comanding position to win the tournament.

Quote

My hand: QQ

Alright so you have the strong hand that you were hoping for.If you have any desire to obtain first place, this is the time to go for it.

Quote

He immediately goes all in behind me for his entire stack, and the small blind CALLS the all in.  

Now this makes things interesting.But let's dissect the issue...First of all, Mr Short Stack was desperately running out of time to make a move. At this point, he is pretty much forced to play any decent hand he can find. This includes moderate aces and low pocket pairs which you have covered. You should feel very confident that your Queens are ahead of the Short Stack.It is more difficult to judge Mr Big Stack.On one hand, there is no need for him to get involved with this pot if he doesn't have strong cards.On the other hand, you mention that he has been aggressive throughout the tournament and may simply feel that you are trying to intimidate the Small Stack with mediocre cards.So let's look at your options:FoldThe Big Stack is most likely ahead of the Small Stack. If he knocks out Small Stack, you will finish in the money. He will have a large chip lead so your chances of first are slim.However, if Short Stack tripples up, you are still battling and are now in a miserable 4th position. All-inWith all three of you in the pot, the odds are the Short Stack winning become very very small. Knowing that one of you will probably knock out the Short Stack gives you the security that you are already in the money.So the question comes down to whether or not you would want to battle the Big Stack with your QQ. Or a better question may be why wouldn't you want to battle with your Queens?With the 3rd spot all but locked up, it is time to make your push for first!Because this tournament is coming to a close soon, you will likely not have a better starting hand than you have now. And seeing action with your Queens is a good thing!Point: Every gamble is a risk/reward situation. Here you have to compare the ideas of winning the whole tournament with the chances of finishing out of the money entirely.The beauty of this situation though is that moving all-in helps you in both scenarios! With your strong hand and presumably the Big Stack's strong hand, the desperate Short stack will surely be a huge dog. So you will be securing Short Stack's 4th place finish.And what better time to battle the Big Stack than with pocket Queens. This is your opportunity to double+ up and fight for first!All-in is a win-win situation.--cnm