MGFish, on Sunday, August 27th, 2006, 5:23 AM, said:
There is NO WAY i call here.Sure, pot odds might add up for a call. But Pot odds are there as a guide - they DO NOT dictate definetively what you should and should not do!Why not just fold knowing you are drawing slim and save the money to play another hand.Hell, i dont want to gamble off most of my stack because im 25% to win the hand and im getting the correct odds.You can't assume your suits are outs for you either, infact - i'd go ahead and assume they are not outs.By calling this raise, the only way you win this pot is to get lucky and hit the board, hard! Again, no way i call here
This is the dumbest thing I've ever read.In a cash game, if pot odds are better than than your odds of winning the hand you MUST call...because, simply put, if you do that every time over a set number of hands you profit.The problem most people run into is they make up scenarios in their heads where they do have the pot odds, when they really don't, and they go out of their way to justify a call based on pot odds, when their chances of winning are actually much lower than they conclude....BUT, if you accurately
determine that your price is better than your odds, you have to call if you like money.For example, let's say we are betting on the roll of a die...you are 5:1 to guess the correct roll....your odds of guessing right are only 17%.But, if you have to bet $1 and I say I'll give you $6 every time you're right, you'd be a complete moron to turn down that deal.Because over 1200 rolls of the die you make a profit....200 times you win $6...1000 times you pay $1...you make $200.It doesn't matter how bad your odds of winning are as long as the price you pay is better.So, it comes down to you calling $3000 to win $7700 ($400 of each which is a sidepot)....so, do you have better than a 28% chance of winning here?Yes, you do.Even if you are against KcKsQsJc and AcAsTsTc you are 32% to win...and I have to think that that is pretty close to your worst-case scenario against their probably holdings. I have to think that against a reasonable range of hands for two tight players you are much better than 30% to win, so a call is mandatory...if you like money.btw - I think this is a clear fold in O8....I also likely fold in an Omaha tournament, even if the price is slightly in your favour, looking for a better price (but could also call if your stack is huge if knocking out the 2nd player is a great benefit).Also - the fact that you raised with 3458 to begin with (and the fact that some of you don't like it) is irrelevent...he could have been making a move, or setting up a post-flop move...he may have raised blind and not looked until facing the all-ins...he could be randomizing and this was his time to raise a random hand...there are dozens of reasons to play this hand this way....just because the "book" says to fold it pf doesn't mean you should every time.
TheMick, on Monday, August 28th, 2006, 10:21 AM, said:
Fold. While you have a shot at two flushes, it's a low end. Even if both other players have aces, then they have a shot at the nut flush, if of course one of their other hole cards is a club or spade. The straight is almost as bad. If you get a wheel draw, you're up a creek because A) It can bring an Ace, likely making trips for one of your opponents, and B)if a 2 doesn't fall, you have 2 pair, and are probably already beaten. Not to mention the chances that your opponents have overcards galore. What if the flop's 7-9-10? You're hurting, and you've just thrown 3 grand away.You raised, you got reraised twice, it's time to get out cheap. Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
It doesn't matter if you're hurting after the flop...there's no more play here...you get to see all 5 cards....if the 2nd player had more money behind, then it's usually a clear fold, but your call of 3000 into a 7700 pot (assuming the first raiser calls his last 1100) is with the consideration that you are not going to be outplayed, you are not worried about pricing for a redraw after the flop, and you will see all 5 cards. It's as clear as day - do you have better than a 28% chance of winning this hand? Yes, you must call...no, you must fold.