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Quiz Question #20


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Poll: Pot Limit Omaha (144 member(s) have cast votes)

What would you do?

  1. Call (76 votes [52.78%])

    Percentage of vote: 52.78%

  2. Fold (68 votes [47.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 47.22%

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#21 MGFish

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Posted 27 August 2006 - 05:23 AM

There is NO WAY i call here.Sure, pot odds might add up for a call. But Pot odds are there as a guide - they DO NOT dictate definetively what you should and should not do!Why not just fold knowing you are drawing slim and save the money to play another hand.Hell, i dont want to gamble off most of my stack because im 25% to win the hand and im getting the correct odds.You can't assume your suits are outs for you either, infact - i'd go ahead and assume they are not outs.By calling this raise, the only way you win this pot is to get lucky and hit the board, hard! Again, no way i call here

#22 LooseCannon

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Posted 27 August 2006 - 07:33 AM

View PostMGFish, on Sunday, August 27th, 2006, 5:23 AM, said:

Why not just fold knowing you are drawing slim and save the money to play another hand.
Because you probably are not drawing slim and might even be a huge favorite.

#23 MGFish

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Posted 27 August 2006 - 04:33 PM

how can you be a huge favourite??????is one guy holding 2-2-2-2

#24 yergan

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Posted 27 August 2006 - 05:57 PM

View PostMGFish, on Sunday, August 27th, 2006, 5:23 AM, said:

Hell, i dont want to gamble off most of my stack because im 25% to win the hand and im getting the correct odds.
Are you serious?

#25 LooseCannon

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Posted 27 August 2006 - 07:52 PM

View PostMGFish, on Sunday, August 27th, 2006, 4:33 PM, said:

how can you be a huge favourite??????is one guy holding 2-2-2-2
Did you not read my previous post? You would be 45% to win in a three-way pot if your opponents held a pair of hands like A :club: A :D J :D T :) and A :club: A :) K :) Q :D. That counts as being a huge favorite.

#26 TheMick

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Posted 28 August 2006 - 10:21 AM

Fold. While you have a shot at two flushes, it's a low end. Even if both other players have aces, then they have a shot at the nut flush, if of course one of their other hole cards is a club or spade. The straight is almost as bad. If you get a wheel draw, you're up a creek because A) It can bring an Ace, likely making trips for one of your opponents, and B)if a 2 doesn't fall, you have 2 pair, and are probably already beaten. Not to mention the chances that your opponents have overcards galore. What if the flop's 7-9-10? You're hurting, and you've just thrown 3 grand away.You raised, you got reraised twice, it's time to get out cheap. Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
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#27 shpaget

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Posted 28 August 2006 - 11:00 AM

View PostMGFish, on Sunday, August 27th, 2006, 5:23 AM, said:

There is NO WAY i call here.Sure, pot odds might add up for a call. But Pot odds are there as a guide - they DO NOT dictate definetively what you should and should not do!Why not just fold knowing you are drawing slim and save the money to play another hand.Hell, i dont want to gamble off most of my stack because im 25% to win the hand and im getting the correct odds.You can't assume your suits are outs for you either, infact - i'd go ahead and assume they are not outs.By calling this raise, the only way you win this pot is to get lucky and hit the board, hard! Again, no way i call here
This is the dumbest thing I've ever read.In a cash game, if pot odds are better than than your odds of winning the hand you MUST call...because, simply put, if you do that every time over a set number of hands you profit.The problem most people run into is they make up scenarios in their heads where they do have the pot odds, when they really don't, and they go out of their way to justify a call based on pot odds, when their chances of winning are actually much lower than they conclude....BUT, if you accurately determine that your price is better than your odds, you have to call if you like money.For example, let's say we are betting on the roll of a die...you are 5:1 to guess the correct roll....your odds of guessing right are only 17%.But, if you have to bet $1 and I say I'll give you $6 every time you're right, you'd be a complete moron to turn down that deal.Because over 1200 rolls of the die you make a profit....200 times you win $6...1000 times you pay $1...you make $200.It doesn't matter how bad your odds of winning are as long as the price you pay is better.So, it comes down to you calling $3000 to win $7700 ($400 of each which is a sidepot)....so, do you have better than a 28% chance of winning here?Yes, you do.Even if you are against KcKsQsJc and AcAsTsTc you are 32% to win...and I have to think that that is pretty close to your worst-case scenario against their probably holdings. I have to think that against a reasonable range of hands for two tight players you are much better than 30% to win, so a call is mandatory...if you like money.btw - I think this is a clear fold in O8....I also likely fold in an Omaha tournament, even if the price is slightly in your favour, looking for a better price (but could also call if your stack is huge if knocking out the 2nd player is a great benefit).Also - the fact that you raised with 3458 to begin with (and the fact that some of you don't like it) is irrelevent...he could have been making a move, or setting up a post-flop move...he may have raised blind and not looked until facing the all-ins...he could be randomizing and this was his time to raise a random hand...there are dozens of reasons to play this hand this way....just because the "book" says to fold it pf doesn't mean you should every time.

View PostTheMick, on Monday, August 28th, 2006, 10:21 AM, said:

Fold. While you have a shot at two flushes, it's a low end. Even if both other players have aces, then they have a shot at the nut flush, if of course one of their other hole cards is a club or spade. The straight is almost as bad. If you get a wheel draw, you're up a creek because A) It can bring an Ace, likely making trips for one of your opponents, and B)if a 2 doesn't fall, you have 2 pair, and are probably already beaten. Not to mention the chances that your opponents have overcards galore. What if the flop's 7-9-10? You're hurting, and you've just thrown 3 grand away.You raised, you got reraised twice, it's time to get out cheap. Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
It doesn't matter if you're hurting after the flop...there's no more play here...you get to see all 5 cards....if the 2nd player had more money behind, then it's usually a clear fold, but your call of 3000 into a 7700 pot (assuming the first raiser calls his last 1100) is with the consideration that you are not going to be outplayed, you are not worried about pricing for a redraw after the flop, and you will see all 5 cards. It's as clear as day - do you have better than a 28% chance of winning this hand? Yes, you must call...no, you must fold.
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#28 David_Nicoson

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Posted 28 August 2006 - 03:37 PM

View PostTheMick, on Monday, August 28th, 2006, 2:21 PM, said:

Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
I'd do the opposite. If I'm afraid of going broke, I'm playing at the wrong stakes.
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#29 LooseCannon

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Posted 28 August 2006 - 10:58 PM

View PostTheMick, on Monday, August 28th, 2006, 10:21 AM, said:

You raised, you got reraised twice, it's time to get out cheap. Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
Man, pot-limit omaha cash games are definitely not for you. You would probably hate a game where it is sometimes correct to fold the nuts on the flop and sometimes correct to jam the pot when your opponent flopped the nuts and you didn't.

#30 shpaget

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 05:34 AM

Quote

You raised, you got reraised twice, it's time to get out cheap. Maybe I'd gamble in a tourney, but not in a cash game. That's how people go broke.
If you can't afford to lose $3000 you shouldn't have $3000 on the table.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#31 shpaget

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 05:45 AM

View PostLooseCannon, on Monday, August 28th, 2006, 10:58 PM, said:

Man, pot-limit omaha cash games are definitely not for you. You would probably hate a game where it is sometimes correct to fold the nuts on the flop and sometimes correct to jam the pot when your opponent flopped the nuts and you didn't.
Troo...nothing like having KdKsTdTs in your hand, to a board of Tc4s6sKc, and you're drawing dead.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#32 EmOEmU

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 07:05 AM

it would be a real wierd *** hand if one guy had a-a-t-j and another had a-a-k-q that just hardly ever happensi dont see why these guys need to have aces in their hand anyway remember they are real short stacked playing 100-200 with only 4000. even if they are rocks they could have any kind of big pair or a few high connecting cards. given the spot with chips already invested i would probably gamble and call the all ins.

#33 LooseCannon

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 08:43 AM

View PostEmOEmU, on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006, 7:05 AM, said:

i dont see why these guys need to have aces in their hand anyway remember they are real short stacked playing 100-200 with only 4000. even if they are rocks they could have any kind of big pair or a few high connecting cards.
A very tight player almost never reraises committing more than half his chips without AA in his hand. A tight player never puts in the third raise after a very tight player reraises without AAxx. You would have a better chance of finding a hand other than AA in the hand of a tight player who puts in the third raise for the same amounts after a very tight player reraised an early position raise in a no limit hold em cash game.I think you people are really underestimating what very tight means in pot limit omaha. A tight PLO player will often see fewer flops than a tight NLHE player.

#34 shpaget

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 09:28 AM

View PostLooseCannon, on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006, 8:43 AM, said:

A very tight player almost never reraises committing more than half his chips without AA in his hand. A tight player never puts in the third raise after a very tight player reraises without AAxx. You would have a better chance of finding a hand other than AA in the hand of a tight player who puts in the third raise for the same amounts after a very tight player reraised an early position raise in a no limit hold em cash game.I think you people are really underestimating what very tight means in pot limit omaha. A tight PLO player will often see fewer flops than a tight NLHE player.
I agree, at least one of the two players has AAxx, and the other guy is huge too....simple probability tells me the other has KKxx rather than also AAxx....and generally, your chances are much better if both players have AAxx, making it more correct to call....even against AAxx and AKKx you are likely over 30% to win the hand.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#35 yergan

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Posted 29 August 2006 - 04:41 PM

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006, 5:45 AM, said:

Troo...nothing like having KdKsTdTs in your hand, to a board of Tc4s6sKc, and you're drawing dead.
The Th or Kh wouldnt help?

#36 shpaget

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Posted 30 August 2006 - 05:52 AM

View Postyergan, on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006, 4:41 PM, said:

The Th or Kh wouldnt help?
not if they're in someone else's hand.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#37 LooseCannon

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Posted 30 August 2006 - 06:13 AM

View Postshpaget, on Tuesday, August 29th, 2006, 9:28 AM, said:

I agree, at least one of the two players has AAxx, and the other guy is huge too....simple probability tells me the other has KKxx rather than also AAxx....and generally, your chances are much better if both players have AAxx, making it more correct to call....even against AAxx and AKKx you are likely over 30% to win the hand.
You need to factor in that, given a very tight player's reraise in front of him, a tight player would fold a lot of KKxx hands.

#38 shpaget

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Posted 30 August 2006 - 06:20 AM

View PostLooseCannon, on Wednesday, August 30th, 2006, 6:13 AM, said:

You need to factor in that, given a very tight player's reraise in front of him, a tight player would fold a lot of KKxx hands.
yup...I am doubting the second reraiser has KKxx (though there are a few KKxx hands he might have, but overall it's almost guaranteed he has AAxx).The first reraiser could have KKxx, even at "very tight", especially if dude with 3468 is known to be loose.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."

#39 KVOM

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Posted 30 August 2006 - 08:15 AM

The quiz is "what would you do?", not "what is the correct play?"At the table there is no way I (personally) could evaluate that I was a 28% favorite with pot odds of 27%, so my instinct would be to fold.Some non-mathematical considerations: If DN is raising with this hand UTG I imagine he has been successful at stealing a lot of blinds. Hence his advantage over these players is probably greater than the 1% he is getting on this hand.

#40 shpaget

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Posted 30 August 2006 - 08:32 AM

View PostKVOM, on Wednesday, August 30th, 2006, 8:15 AM, said:

The quiz is "what would you do?", not "what is the correct play?"At the table there is no way I (personally) could evaluate that I was a 28% favorite with pot odds of 27%, so my instinct would be to fold.Some non-mathematical considerations: If DN is raising with this hand UTG I imagine he has been successful at stealing a lot of blinds. Hence his advantage over these players is probably greater than the 1% he is getting on this hand.
Well, I don't know where you're getting 1%...He's getting 28% pot price, but he could be upwards of 40% to win the hand.Regardless, even if he's only 31% to win against a range of hands, that is not a 3% advantage...it's a 10% advantage.And, since the word "quiz" is used, that implies that there is a correct, and incorrect, play. (and folding may indeed be correct)And to be profitable long-term, you need to be able to determine what your odds are in all situations to determine if your price to play is correct.
"Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."




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