15 replies to this topic

[KDawgCometh]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is MP3 with [Q :spade: ], [K :diamond: ]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.Flop: (9.50 SB) [K :spade: ], [4 :club: ], [Q :diamond: ] (4 players)UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds.Turn: (6.25 BB) [8 :diamond: ] (3 players)UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls.River: (12.25 BB) [4 :diamond: ] (2 players)Hero bets, Hero calls.Final Pot: 16.25 BBButton is a calling station who has overplayed hands before and has no problem calling two cold with less than stellar hands. Was I wrong to threebet the turn when he showed aggression(I felt he might've hit a smaller two pair), and should I have checked the river looking to call

[Emptyeye]

If he's really a calling station like you say, I would probably have shut it down on the turn and check-call from there. Definitely check-call the river. It's my experience that when a calling station wakes up and starts raising back at you, they've usually picked up something huge.

[Vade]

This is an interesting hand.Without a read on the opponent, I would have said that 3-betting is fine here.But with a calling station....He could have 8-8, which is the first thing that comes to mind.He could have 4-4, which even a calling station would try to slow play.He could have the worst played runner-runner flush in history, but I wouldn't worry too much about that either.Probably not the best three bet in the world, and you had him raising on the river.I have to think you're behind here, I'm just not entirely sure what he has.

[Swift_Psycho]

I wouldn't three-bet on the turn with a calling station raising you on the expensive street.

[Smasharoo]

You played it fine. The lack of a turn cap begs the question that this might be AA which just caught up with you on the river. He caps a set on the turn, but is unlikely to raise into a bet on a flush drawn board.I think it's AA most of the time.

[Random Fluke]

Smasharoo said:

You played it fine.  The lack of a turn cap begs the question that this might be  AA which just caught up with you on the river.  He caps a set on the turn, but is unlikely to raise into a bet on a flush drawn board.I think it's AA most of the time.

I wouldnt expect it to be AA, if it is he made a mistake by not re-raising pre.If your read is right I think you played it perfectly. He could have any number of things, but I'm betting the luck-sack beat you on the river with either a flush, full house, or trips.

[Smasharoo]

I wouldnt expect it to be AA, if it is he made a mistake by not re-raising pre. If our opponents didn't make mistakes we'd all just be sitting around taking turns paying rake.

[Random Fluke]

Smasharoo said:

I wouldnt expect it to be AA, if it is he made a mistake by not re-raising pre.  If our opponents didn't make mistakes we'd all just be sitting around taking turns paying rake.

true, but even novices usually know to raise to the hilt with AA. Failing to limit the field with AA is usually a big mistake.

[Smasharoo]

Well, we'll see what it was at some point if the OP posts the results tommorow or whatever.

[KDawgCometh]

results:the lucky bastard stayed around with 88. What can I say, that's poker

[Vade]

KDawgCometh said:

results:the lucky bastard stayed around with 88. What can I say, that's poker

Ah ha! I guessed it right.Consider yourself lucky he missed a cap on the turn, would have been out another BB

[Random Fluke]

Although 88 wasn't the hand I expected him to have, I think button played this hand very well. With 8.5 small bets in on the flop, if he knew he could collect a bet if he hit his set on the turn, it was worth calling one small bet on the flop to draw to his set.

[KDawgCometh]

Random Fluke said:

Although 88 wasn't the hand I expected him to have,  I think button played this hand very well. With 8.5 small bets in on the flop, if he knew he could collect a bet if he hit his set on the turn, it was worth calling one small bet on the flop to draw to his set.

I don't see how taking 8.5-1 when you generally need 15or16-1odds(with implied odds for later streets) is a +ev play, explain your position much better because he only got 4 BBs out of me. If this is a five way then it might work

[Emptyeye]

Yeah, isn't it something insane like 22-1 to hit a set on ONE card?If, for some reason, he was in a 6-way pot, capped, pre-flop, then yeah, he has the odds to go chasing on the turn. Besides that, though...with a mid pocket pair, I have to either have odds to go chasing, or reason to believe my pair will be good even if I miss. with two overs, that isn't very likely, so I'd tos that on the flop, if someone bet before me.EDIT: Gotta love leaving words out of sentences.

[KDawgCometh]

Emptyeye said:

Yeah, isn't it something insane like 22-1 to hit a set on ONE card?If, for some reason, he was in a 6-way pot, capped, pre-flop, then yeah, he has the odds to go chasing on the turn. Besides that, though...with a mid pocket pair, I to either have odds to go chasing, or reason to believe my pair will be good even if I miss. with two overs, that isn't very likely, so I'd tos that on the flop, if someone bet before me.

yeah, but with implied oddsyou can do it with 15-1 in a loose game in a multiway pot. Basically you want it capped three way or threebet four or five way, so that if your gonna do that you can atleast claim a bunch of big bets

[Random Fluke]

KDawgCometh said:

Random Fluke said:

Although 88 wasn't the hand I expected him to have,  I think button played this hand very well. With 8.5 small bets in on the flop, if he knew he could collect a bet if he hit his set on the turn, it was worth calling one small bet on the flop to draw to his set.

I don't see how taking 8.5-1 when you generally need 15or16-1odds(with implied odds for later streets) is a +ev play, explain your position much better because he only got 4 BBs out of me. If this is a five way then it might work

he has a 4% chance to hit his set on the turn. the pot is 8.5 small bets. so approximately 20 times out of 21 he is going to pay 1 small bet and lose 1 small bet for a total of 20 small bets paid and lost.the 1 time he does hit his set, with a KQ on board and knowing you raised preflop, he can be very confident you will bet into him. So he got 3 BB from you on the turn and 2 more BB from you on the river. So the one time he does win he wins 11.5 small bets from the flop + 10 small bets from turn and river for a total of 21.5 small bets. So he is up .5 small bets!! hmm now that I do the math it actually doesn't look so good after all, it is probably a very slightly -EV play as I think about it more (because you have a chance to hit a full house or you could be holding kk/qq and the other person on the flop has a small chance to make his straight draw. and also he got more than he should have out of you, as you should have called down instead of 3 betting the river. Of course he was probably expecting the other player to make the mistake of chasing his straight draw to the river.) and he should have folded. However he did have *2* people with him on the flop, so he was probably hoping he could extract at least another BB or 2 from the other flop caller. I think this changes from very slightly negative, to positive with 3 callers on the flop.To summarize, I was wrong and he should have folded. It is very very marginal though, and calling the flop here is only a small mistake. If he was in a loose game and expected both the flop callers to stick with him to the river if he made his set it probably changes from very slightly negative to very slightly positive EV. When I first looked at the post I didnt take the time to do the math down and guesstimated it was slightly positive EV.