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What Is A Good Averge Roi?


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#1 BWToth

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 08:33 AM

Ok, I've been doing some reading and punching in some numbers to try and estimate what it would take to be profitable playing only LOW STAKES SHORTHANDED NL SnGs and the following questions have arisen:Is a 20-25% Return on Investment feasible for a "good" player? It seems most places say it is possible to acheive this percentage for a "good" player, but i have my doubts. Especially over the long term. So I did some basic calculations so its easier to see without having to think about it and here is what i'm getting at:If a 25% ROI were feasible this would mean that someone who played an avg of 25 (say playing two tables at once) $20+2, 5-handed SnGs 6 days a week for a year could NET $41,000. 25 x 22=550, 550 x .25=137.5 x 6 x 50= 41250That's pretty good money, especially for such low stakes.So, i guess in turn I may have answered my own question that a 25% ROI is WAY too high. Right?So for a random sample of 1000, 5-man SnGs, it would have to look something like:250 1st, 350 2nd, 400 out of the money: in the money 60%? seems feasible?1st: $17500 2nd: $10500 Total: $28,000 Investment: $22,000 Profit: $6,0006000 / 22,000 = .273 ROI: 27.3%Maybe this is realistic and people do, do this and make good money, I guess I've just never thought about it in the long term before.If anyone has any experience that shows these numbers to be impossible or possible for that matter, like the 25% ROI or in the money 60% feel free to share or correct me.60% in the money seems high?I dunno....thoughts please?Thanks.

#2 MasterLJ

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 08:41 AM

25% is in the absolute upper tier of sustainable ROI.I'd say it's probably top 5% of long-term winners (which is said to be 3-10% of the entire player base).Suffice it to say, there aren't many pros that could even sustain such a feat, even at low stakes.
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#3 BWToth

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 08:54 AM

View PostMasterLJ, on Friday, August 11th, 2006, 12:41 PM, said:

25% is in the absolute upper tier of sustainable ROI.I'd say it's probably top 5% of long-term winners (which is said to be 3-10% of the entire player base).Suffice it to say, there aren't many pros that could even sustain such a feat, even at low stakes.
OK, cool, that's what i was wondering, so what is a more reasonable ROI for the above average player?

#4 MasterLJ

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 09:09 AM

25% ROI would be at least a full 2 standard deviations from the mean.That being said, I'd guess that 10-14%ish is probably average ROI for winning players.
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#5 BWToth

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 12:35 PM

Any one else????

#6 Money022

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Posted 11 August 2006 - 01:51 PM

Speaking of ROI, anybody familiar with this site? Shark ScopeLists ROI and other good details about your SNG/MTT play at some of the larger sites.
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#7 BWToth

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 08:39 PM

I know my OP was long, but c'mon people don't be lazy, i think there is some legitimate discussion buried in there somewhere.

#8 Zach6668

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 09:13 PM

I don't play much SH SNG's, but your numbers look right.However, for full SNG's, a 25% ROI is pretty high. Like LJ said, 15% would be pretty solid.Get Actuary in here.... He plays mostly 6-handed $22 SNG's on Party.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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#9 BWToth

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 09:19 PM

ok, well, thanks for your help.

#10 Zach6668

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 09:51 PM

From 2+2.com, http://forumserver.t...e...an=0&page=0

Quote

What are attainable stats at the different levels? NOTE: The below talks about the "old" party structure. Conclusive sorts of findings with respect to the "new" party structure haven't been come up with yet.In this thread, one poster comments on many things, including attainable stats for the various buyins. More than that, there is quite a bit of posting later in that thread about what are attainable and realistic ROI’s for the higher stakes Party SNGs. A summary for a "good player" the following ROis are good, while 4 tabling:11s - 25% ROI20s - 20% ROI33s - 16% ROI55s - 13% ROI109s - 10% ROI215s - 7% ROI Higher ROIs are attainable at every one of these levels, HOWEVER if you can achieve the above ROI's you are capable of making a good living at poker, especially if you can do so playing 8 at once.Anyone who can acheive the above ROI's, while playing many tables at once, is a "good" player. They might not be great and may still have plenty of weaknesses, but they are definitely very good at what they do.In short, if your ROI is higher than the above numbers, you are doing something right and should be relatively satisfied with your play. You may still have plenty of room to improve but you are definitely on the right track. (thanks for the above to curtains.)Basically, as you move up your ITM shouldn’t decrease very much, but your ROI will. If you’re making money though, you’re making money. Just don’t get overconfident with a small sample size. See the “what do you think of my stats?” section.
*****************Here's some more links you may be interested in:ROI for SH SNG's - WPT Fan SiteSnG ROI Confidence Intervals--Monte Carlo results - 2+2ROI uncertainty rules of thumb - 2+2Zero-Sum game theory and equilibrium - 2+2*****************The 2+2 posts from above, except the top one that I quoted, were taken from:SNG FAQ v3 (.pdf)
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#11 Actuary

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 10:14 PM

View PostZach6668, on Sunday, August 13th, 2006, 9:13 PM, said:

I don't play much SH SNG's, but your numbers look right.However, for full SNG's, a 25% ROI is pretty high. Like LJ said, 15% would be pretty solid.Get Actuary in here.... He plays mostly 6-handed $22 SNG's on Party.
I got nothing to add.My ROI is going up and hovering at 24-28% over last 150; but 13.2% overall (784) I seriously play pretty bad.If I could play better HU and get some more 1sts that would help.I always lose money on late Sunday nights.

#12 Zach6668

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 10:33 PM

View PostActuary, on Monday, August 14th, 2006, 2:14 AM, said:

I always lose money on late Sunday nights.
Hmm... are you playing right now?
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#13 Actuary

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Posted 14 August 2006 - 06:53 AM

View PostZach6668, on Sunday, August 13th, 2006, 10:33 PM, said:

Hmm... are you playing right now?
I was.lost $85pretty good for me on Sunday.




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