8 replies to this topic

[copernicus]

Early in a 90+ player MTT, $50 buyin. 3000 chip starting stacks, late in third round so blinds are 50/100 and about ready to go up to 100/200. Ive played one hand up to this point, which i won without showdown.

Im in seat 5 of 11. CO and button have been very loose preflop, playing a lot of weak As, and very passive on the flop if they dont hit.

Folded around to my KJ, and I had already decided to try and steal with anything reasonable with the blinds going up, so I raise to 300. Button calls and has a ton of chips.

Flop Q83 rainbow. I lead out 300 trying to steal it, button calls. 1350 in the pot, ive got about 2400 behind.

turn T of one of the suits on the board, giving me OESD and a flush draw on the board.

I check, button bets 600 giving me about 3:1 odds. I think Ive got 11.5 outs on average, with the OESD and pairing either the J or the K. (I put him on AK, AQ and small pairs that havent made a set at this point). I call figuring im pretty close on immediate odds and if the straight hits can pick up at least 600 more chips giving me better than 4:1 implied odds.

River pairs the 8 (not flush possible). My play?

[GrinderMJ]

This is a little strange, you asking other people for advice since you seem to be all knowing, but I wouldn't get fancy. I have a hard time believing he will fold to a shove on the river, and even though the structure sounds sucky, I think you can work with 1800 at 1/2 with an M of 6. You have enough room to pick your spots and double a few times, I'm just surrendering here.

[copernicus]

This is a little strange, you asking other people for advice since you seem to be all knowing, but I wouldn't get fancy. I have a hard time believing he will fold to a shove on the river, and even though the structure sounds sucky, I think you can work with 1800 at 1/2 with an M of 6. You have enough room to pick your spots and double a few times, I'm just surrendering here.

all knowing? opinionated maybe, especially if it boils down to a math issue, but far from all knowing!


Results/comments in white:

I checked, he checked. He did have AK. After the hand I felt like I might have been able to push him out, and its 1800 vs 4100/0 if he folds/calls. That means almost 45% folds, and since he was the big stack (another 6-7k behind at this point) Im still not sure if I would get the fold. With 15 minute blinds we werent even getting around the table once, and the table was about to break, so whatever tight image i might have had would have been useless. This am Im leaning toward push again, but at least MJ didnt think it was an auto-push.

[mk]

move in on the turn. not close.

[throwemaway]

I'm not a big fan of the way you played the turn at all..I think you should have just pushed w/ tons of outs and a lot of fold equity..I would like someone to figure our equity using Pokerstove against his calling range, which I would say is AQ, KQ, QJ, 99-JJ...I think coupled w/ the times we take down the pot there and the times were called and hit the river, it equals out to be a +EV play..



PS....Your weak flop lead I'm also not a huge fan of..I would bump it up to something like 400-500, but thats just me

[copernicus]

I'm not a big fan of the way you played the turn at all..I think you should have just pushed w/ tons of outs and a lot of fold equity..I would like someone to figure our equity using Pokerstove against his calling range, which I would say is AQ, KQ, QJ, 99-JJ...I think coupled w/ the times we take down the pot there and the times were called and hit the river, it equals out to be a +EV play..
PS....Your weak flop lead I'm also not a huge fan of..I would bump it up to something like 400-500, but thats just me

I agree that pushing on the turn is +tEV. The problem with it is I only pick up 2xCPR (really closer to 1.5xCPR with the speed of the blinds). The tradeoff is doubling up if I hit the str8 and he has a real hand.

Say he calls the push 25% of the time, I win 25% of the time and lose 75% of the time for a net of -250 or so, and he folds 75% of the time for +450. that makes pushing +200.

If I play it as I did, say I pick up 3000 10% of the time, pick up the 600 but no more 15% of the time, and check it down 75% of the time. Thats +390.

So I dont think it was a mistake on the turn. The river is still where i think I may have been too weak.

Re the flop bet, $500 wouldnt get him off any hand that $300 wouldnt also.

[shpaget]

I think he calls a turn push more than 50% of the time (based on typical play I see in this tourney)...I think your turn call is fine, but I can push anyway on occasion. I need to be sure he has no piece of the flop to bet the river - because he'll call with pocket A8....or sixes.

I guess this is why I didn't see you last night - got there about 9:15.

lost $300 at the cash game going allin pf with aces against T7o and Q9s and lost to BOTH of them!!!!!

I have to laugh.

[Gooser]

if you read him as weak i dont know why you would check call on the turn, check and when he bets come over the top all in and he'd likely fold...if not you still have your outs

[copernicus]

if you read him as weak i dont know why you would check call on the turn, check and when he bets come over the top all in and he'd likely fold...if not you still have your outs

Did you read my last post on the EV of pushing on the turn vs seeing the river card? I dont think I want a fold on the turn at this point.

I think he calls a turn push more than 50% of the time (based on typical play I see in this tourney)...I think your turn call is fine, but I can push anyway on occasion. I need to be sure he has no piece of the flop to bet the river - because he'll call with pocket A8....or sixes.

I guess this is why I didn't see you last night - got there about 9:15.

lost $300 at the cash game going allin pf with aces against T7o and Q9s and lost to BOTH of them!!!!!

I have to laugh.

sorry I missed you ! I left just before you got there apparently...maybe 9:10.

same time next year (unless he decides to go to camp at Shattucks instead)

Do you think he folds to a push on the river? You may know the guy...maybe mid twenties, curly brown hair, ties it back with a shoelace the 3 times I saw him?