16 replies to this topic

[nomad_monad]

100NL

Relevant Stacks:
Hero: 198
Villain: 174

Preflop:
Hero dealt AcAs

Villain raises to $4 from UTG+1, Hero calls on the Button, SB and BB call.

Flop ($16):
5c6c7h

SB checks, BB checks, Villain bets $12
Hero raises to $36
SB folds, BB folds, Villain thinks for a while and calls.

Turn ($88):
3c

Villain checks, Hero checks

River ($88):
8c

Villain checks
Hero pushes


A little background: Villain is a good LAG. Preflop raising standards, even from EP, are fairly wide (saw him raise from UTG w/suited connectors 3 different times in the last hour). Never open-limps and has always just flat called any preflop reraise. We've both been playing LAG and been tangling a lot. The rest of the table was fairly weak-tight. One tendency I noticed was that if he had the lead preflop, he didn't like to give it up postflop - i.e. several times he didn't hesitate to come right back over the top of flop raise by me and I had to lay down a few times. On the other hand, if I took the lead by reraising preflop, he slowed down a lot postflop. Normally I don't like to just flat call with aces preflop, but this seemed like a good situation to exploit.

Comments on all streets appreciated.

[crankin]

Only plausible hand that could call you here is Kx with Kc. I think I'd prefer a small'ish "call me" bet of around 1/3 pot. If he has the Kc, he might think you are bluffing and come over the top. As played, I'd be surprised you get a call, and are losing value against the few hands that might call a reasonable bet.

All bets are off if villain has shown a tendency to think huge overbets are bluffs. But, even then, this is a horrible board for villain to try and call a bluff on.

I'm fine with the play on other streets. I'd normally re-raise pre-flop, but a smooth call in late position is ok to mix up your play.

[trystero]

I think I'd prefer a small'ish "call me" bet of around 1/3 pot. If he has the Kc, he might think you are bluffing and come over the top.

[nomad_monad]

Only plausible hand that could call you here is Kx with Kc. I think I'd prefer a small'ish "call me" bet of around 1/3 pot.

Fair enough.
However, does your opinion change any if we've been playing at each other a lot?
I honestly thought that when he checked the river to me, he was going to either fold or was trying to induce a bluff with a flush (although it's possible he was looking to call cheap with a rivered str8). Good payoff hands he could've held like 2 pair, set, and str8 really can't fade this board and he usually comes back over the top of me on the flop with them.

If he has the Kc, he might think you are bluffing and come over the top.

He's a good player. If he thinks I'm bluffing, he is never coming over the top with Kc. I think you know why it would be bad for him to do so.
It's actually part of the reason why I pushed - once I decided that he was either weak or looking to pick off a bluff, I thought it would be best to maximize the value I got from him trying to pick me off (because he's not reraising a bluff), even though an overbet might make it harder for him to do so.

But I admit, it is definitely a questionable decision I made in this hand.

[MasterLJ]

I like everything, think the river is debatable.

Every conceivable hand has hit, but you hit too hard =P. The flush will almost always fold here and same with the straight.

I think a good price-in on the river is the maximum you can extract from any reasonable $100NL player.

[coremiller]

I don't think our Villian is very strong here. If he's shown no hesitation to play back at you, then I think his flop call gives away the strength of his hand. If he had two pair or a set, he's almost certainly raising your flop raise with a coordinated board like that. Probably also if he has 89 and flopped a straight, since (having just smooth-called preflop) you could be on any number of possible draws and he'll want to charge you. This is an awful flop for slowplaing any made hand, if that's what he has.

Given the Villian's aggressive tendencies, and your past laydowns to his raises, I also think he's probably reraising you on the flop with a hand like 8c7c, since he'll think he has FE in addition to outs galore.

All of this leads me to conclude that Villian is not very strong. I think his most likely holding is probably a weaker overpair (like 99), or maybe A7.

I think a flush draw is unlikely because most reasonable flush draws gives him some other draw as well (109 - straight plus overs), which he would have played more aggressively, and he's likely avoiding the higher ones from EP (i.e. QJ, KJ) for fear of domination.

Based on all this, I'm leaning toward betting about 1/2-2/3 of the pot on the turn for a couple of reasons.

First, for value. If Villian does have 99 or 1010, you might be able to extract something here before all the draws come in on the river and kill your action.

Second, you might make him fold a better hand. If Villian is holding 56 or 67 for two pair, he's currently beating you, but he can't know that. He'll have a very difficult call here, since you've played the flop exactly as an aggressive player with the nut flush draw will often play it.

The only reason not to bet the turn is fear of a checkraise if Villian made his flush. But I think this is unlikely. First, Villian is less likely to have the flush; Second, you have the Ac, so Villian can't have the nut flush, AND has to fear the possibility that you do have the nut flush (your betting action so far is very consistent with this holding). So even if he has the flush, he might not always check-raise. And if he's a good player, he's almost never check-raising here without the flush.

Finally, if you bet the turn and get called, your river action is pretty straightfoward. Check behind or fold to a decent-sized bet if a non-club comes off; push any club.

As played, though, I prefer a small value bet on the river rather than pushing. A push will only get called by the Kc, and it's unlikely he's holding that. Tthe only hands that would make sense there are KKc (would he play the flop more aggressively with this?) or KcQc, unless you've seen him raise from OOP with something like K9s which would be really, really loose. Even if he has the Kc, he might not call because you're way overbetting. A small bet of about $30 might get called by a smaller flush, though.

[nomad_monad]

Based on all this, I'm leaning toward betting about 1/2-2/3 of the pot on the turn for a couple of reasons.

Most of what you wrote about the villain is what I was pretty much thinking. Good points related to betting the turn. Although, I think if I'm betting this turn, I'm betting it to try and fold 2 pair or to charge a good flush redraw. He's folding pretty much everything else here to a bet. The reason I checked though is because I thought I probably needed to make the turn bet at least 2/3 if I was ever going to fold a better hand, and that amount potsticks me due to the villain's stack size.

[coremiller]

Most of what you wrote about the villain is what I was pretty much thinking. Good points related to betting the turn. Although, I think if I'm betting this turn, I'm betting it to try and fold 2 pair or to charge a good flush redraw. He's folding pretty much everything else here to a bet. The reason I checked though is because I thought I probably needed to make the turn bet at least 2/3 if I was ever going to fold a better hand, and that amount potsticks me due to the villain's stack size.

let's see, Villian has $134 left. if you bet $60 and he pushes, you would have to call $74 into a pot of $282. That's odds of 3.8:1. If Villian only makes this play with a made flush, then you have to fold because you're not getting good enough odds to chase.

if Villian has the flush, he will very rarely have the Kc in his hand. that means that if the fourth club falls, you'll get very little value out of your flush. checking's only value is that it saves us money if we're behind.

betting, on the other hand, gains us value two ways: when Villian calls with the worst hand and folds the best hand. getting Villian to fold two pair (if that's what he has), for example, takes us from ~34% equity to 100% equity. betting also protects our hand against some draw that Villian would never bet with but that would win him the pot if it hits and we check behind on the river, like if Villian has 87 and the river is a non-club 9.

I'm not sophiscated enough to run the numbers, but it looks to me like the value we gain here by betting is probably greater than what we save by preventing the check-raise.

now, all of this assumes (correctly I think) that Villian won't check-raise unless he has the flush. if he'll ever make that play on a bluff, then we have to check so we're not forced to fold the best hand. but I dont think that's likely here.

[nomad_monad]

now, all of this assumes (correctly I think) that Villian won't check-raise unless he has the flush. if he'll ever make that play on a bluff, then we have to check so we're not forced to fold the best hand. but I dont think that's likely here.

i actually think the key portion of the turn decision isn't fearing the check-raise. i'm not deep enough here where folding to a turn c/r is really an option. although 3.8-1 is just a shade below what i need to call based on direct odds, if even something like 5% of the time he c/r on a semibluff here calling is the correct play.

i think the key here is how often villain holds and folds two pair or is in there with 87. i'm a little too busy at the moment to run the numbers, but if he calls X% of the time with two pair and i don't improve, it might be more profitable to risk letting 87 catch up. and i might add that a certain % of the time, letting 87 catch up is actually good if one of his dirty outs hit.

[coremiller]

i actually think the key portion of the turn decision isn't fearing the check-raise. i'm not deep enough here where folding to a turn c/r is really an option. although 3.8-1 is just a shade below what i need to call based on direct odds, if even something like 5% of the time he c/r on a semibluff here calling is the correct play.

i think the key here is how often villain holds and folds two pair or is in there with 87. i'm a little too busy at the moment to run the numbers, but if he calls X% of the time with two pair and i don't improve, it might be more profitable to risk letting 87 catch up. and i might add that a certain % of the time, letting 87 catch up is actually good if one of his dirty outs hit.

if he folds two-pair, that's great for us; if he calls with it, that's not as good but still ok, since we have like 14 outs to beat him.

it is almost never profitable to let 87 catch up. there are no cards that can come that will make his hand AND make us a better hand AND that he would call a significant bet with. if the 9 of clubs comes off, is he going to call any bet without a club in his hand? not likely.

if he has 87 (or 97, or a similar hand), the amount we lose when we give him a free card that costs us the pot will greatly exceed the amount we win if he makes a second best hand and we make the nuts.

i still think there is no value to a check besides preventing a check-raise. Fold Equity + protecting against draws makes betting better, i think.

[crankin]

Fair enough.
However, does your opinion change any if we've been playing at each other a lot?

Not a whole lot. If you all have been doing the all-in bluff back and forth, then a remote maybe. But, this board is just sooo coordinated, it takes a really big hand to call an all-in here.

He's a good player. If he thinks I'm bluffing, he is never coming over the top with Kc. I think you know why it would be bad for him to do so.

Agreed. However, if he has Kc, and he puts you on a smaller flush, he could raise you. Not saying it would be the correct move on his part, but I've certainly seen people make that move.

[nomad_monad]

i still think there is no value to a check besides preventing a check-raise. Fold Equity + protecting against draws makes betting better, i think.

get back to you in a bit - like i said before, good points though.

But, this board is just sooo coordinated, it takes a really big hand to call an all-in here.

Maybe. Bear with me for a minute here though.
The one thing the river overbet does is set up my hand range to be either the nuts or a bluff. No other hand really makes sense.
Given that, if you're the villain, 2 pair is probably just as good as Kc here.

[subsin]

id like to re-raise preflop, just because of a re-raise doesnt put you on ACES, flop, i raise to around 50-60, definately price out the blinds, starigh and flush draw -out there, turn makes a flush, think you're sorta lucky the 4th club hit on the river, if it hadent would you call a by raise by him?

[nomad_monad]

id like to re-raise preflop, just because of a re-raise doesnt put you on ACES, flop, i raise to around 50-60, definately price out the blinds, starigh and flush draw -out there, turn makes a flush, think you're sorta lucky the 4th club hit on the river, if it hadent would you call a by raise by him?

of course a reraise doesn't mean he puts me exactly on aces. that's not the point. the point was to smooth call to take advantage of a facet of his aggressive playing pattern.

36 is large enough to price out the blinds so long as they're not loosey-goosey (which they weren't). plus the flop isn't too hot for my hand - it's obviously still good enough to raise here for value but not so huge that i want to build a gigantic pot. plus, 36 and LAG might still come with something i beat. 50-60, he's only coming with everything that crushes me.

if the 4th club doesn't fall, yes i planned to call any river bet from him so long as a str8 doesn't complete. even then i call depending on the price i get. after he flat calls my turn, 2 pair is the only hand i'm worried about. although i think with the flush completing on the turn and me possibly playing a semi-bluff draw that hit, i see a showdown relatively cheaply even if the river blanks.

[iggymcfly]

Only plausible hand that could call you here is Kx with Kc. I think I'd prefer a small'ish "call me" bet of around 1/3 pot. If he has the Kc, he might think you are bluffing and come over the top. As played, I'd be surprised you get a call, and are losing value against the few hands that might call a reasonable bet.

I didn't read all the replies, but I disagree vehemently with this. I think you're just as likely to get a call here pushing for the size of the pot as you are making a little bullshit bet that doesn't help you at all, especially against a good player. A ton of weak players out there bet the **** out of their bluffs, and make small bets when they want a call, and it's such an easy read that most good players will exploit it. I think any good club calls your push here, and if they don't have a club, they're probably not calling the 1/3 pot bet anyway.

Incidentally, does anyone else use the 1/3 pot bet on the river whenever they miss a draw, and they're just trying to eliminate a better missed draw hand? I do this all the time, but I almost never see it from my opponents.

[nomad_monad]

I think any good club calls your push here, and if they don't have a club, they're probably not calling the 1/3 pot bet anyway.

Yeah, I thought that betting big here (be it pot or overbet) would further engineer that reality. When I do that against this guy, I figured that it makes his calling decision purely about whether or not he has a club, since I likely wouldn't be doing this unless I had the nut club or nothing at all.

As far as the results go - villain called w/JJ and the J of clubs.

Worked out for me, but I'm still a bit iffy on the push. I think the fact that we had been going back and forth a lot was really the determining factor.

[crankin]

I didn't read all the replies, but I disagree vehemently with this. I think you're just as likely to get a call here pushing for the size of the pot as you are making a little bullshit bet that doesn't help you at all, especially against a good player. A ton of weak players out there bet the **** out of their bluffs, and make small bets when they want a call, and it's such an easy read that most good players will exploit it. I think any good club calls your push here, and if they don't have a club, they're probably not calling the 1/3 pot bet anyway.

On a different board I would agree with the push. But, we'll just have to disagree on this particular board. I think the Kc could call a push, and possibly the Qc. Having read the result, I'm a little surprised the Jc called the push. And I just can't see any other club even considering it. Maybe I'm just too tight. However, I think a smaller value bet gets some weaker clubs to call, as well as some bluff catcher hands.

Incidentally, does anyone else use the 1/3 pot bet on the river whenever they miss a draw, and they're just trying to eliminate a better missed draw hand? I do this all the time, but I almost never see it from my opponents.

Yes, I use this sometimes as well, although probably not as often as you.