9 replies to this topic

[DonkSlayer]

1st hand at the table and I have no notes on the villain.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with [Kd] [Ac]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, SB calls.

Flop: [6d] [7c] [3c] ($6, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.5, SB calls.

Turn: [7d] ($15, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: [6h] ($15, 2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero thinks forever. Then calls.

Results:
Final pot: $31

[subsin]

wat wast the outcome

[No_Neck]

it specifically says jordon, so I guess you don't care what I think

[DonkSlayer]

Ok fine you guys can chime in.

[Jordan]

1st hand at the table and I have no notes on the villain.

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with [Kd] [Ac]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, SB calls.

Flop: [6d] [7c] [3c] ($6, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.5, SB calls.

Turn: [7d] ($15, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: [6h] ($15, 2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero thinks forever. Then calls.

Results:
Final pot: $31

I wish you had a read...but...the thing I dislike is there is a chance we might just be splitting, so already, even though we dont have odds to call the bet, they become even less because if we call and split, well blah even more..kinda.

I like the call though, and it's probably one that you can get away with...catching a lot of missed draws with that board.

- Jordan

[MasterLJ]

As Jordan says, you're calling for a chop.

If 85% of the time you chop, 10% you lose and 5% you win, this is a losing play.

perhaps raising is the answer here (take to $20-$24)?

90% of the time you win the entire pot, 10% you have to fold to a push/get called and lose.

Actual profit:
$15 (villain's portion of the pot) * .9 = $13.5
-
(hero's portion) 0.1 * $31 = $3.1

= total profit $10.4

Break-even analysis:
Or 15x - 34(1-x) = 0
49x - 34 = 0
49x = 34
x = 0.694

Your opponent needs to fold 69% of the time to break even. I think you're good hear enough to raise.

[gooch]

pair of nines?

[DonkSlayer]

Villain showed 5d-8d.

What sold the call for me was the size of his bet. It was a little steep for a value bet, especially considering that if he had the bo at, I was doing no better than some sort of two pair. He also didn't go for that smash bet that's so popular now, betting the size of the pot with the nuts. It was right in between. I thought missed draw more than boat or overpair.

[iggymcfly]

As Jordan says, you're calling for a chop.

If 85% of the time you chop, 10% you lose and 5% you win, this is a losing play.

perhaps raising is the answer here (take to $20-$24)?

90% of the time you win the entire pot, 10% you have to fold to a push/get called and lose.

Actual profit:
$15 (villain's portion of the pot) * .9 = $13.5
-
(hero's portion) 0.1 * $31 = $3.1

= total profit $10.4

Break-even analysis:
Or 15x - 34(1-x) = 0
49x - 34 = 0
49x = 34
x = 0.694

Your opponent needs to fold 69% of the time to break even. I think you're good hear enough to raise.

This is way off. It's $8 to call and if we split, we get half of $31 ($15.50). Thus, if we never win the pot outright, we'd have to chop about 55% of the time to make calling profitable. However, I don't think an ace bets this river very often, as if they're passive enough to c/c the flop with an ace and check the turn with an ace, they'll usually check the river.

If this is a bluff, it's going to be a missed draw, and even the nut flush draw is more likely to check then bet. Raising doesn't have much value either, as when this isn't a missed draw, it's usually a 6 or a 7. On this river, I say we lose 65% of the time, win 30% and chop 10%. Therefore, EV(call) = .35($32) - $8 for a profit of around $3. It's a pretty close decision, but it looks like it's definitely a call.

[Scott3705]

I dont know why we think we're calling for a chop, we're picking off bluffs from a lot of non aces here so I think we're calling to win here a lot. My only thought is that tons of player value bet stupid pairs that ace high can't call, but ace high is the only hand they beat. (I think Phil gordon started this phenomenon). However, most overpairs repop this flop and the underpairs are counterfeited.... so I think this is a pretty good call here.