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If You Have The Pot Odds Should You Always Go For It?


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#21 XXEddie

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 06:52 PM

View Postpragtyro, on Friday, August 18th, 2006, 6:00 PM, said:

The math on this is next to impossible, but at this point wouldn't pocket 5's be BEHIND AQ? 8 folds on the first hand of an STT makes me think that those 16 cards in the muck didn't include alot of aces or queens.
and you think for some reason alll the mucked cards wouldnt be As or Qs. On the first hand of a SnG, I wouldnt even play A9 unless I was in MP and most Qs other than AK, KQs and QQ would also fold.The very amatuer-ish(sp...is that a word) for you to think that the unknown mucked cards could come into play. Ill tell you right now to stop it

View PostChrisRichey, on Friday, August 18th, 2006, 6:11 PM, said:

I agree. Wheter it is mathematically correct or not, I would rather pick a better place to shove all of my chips in.
seriously. Not to mention the fact that the SB would never show you their cards, and that alone makes this question dumb. But unless the SB was some big name pro, Id fold.

#22 copernicus

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 08:33 PM

View PostXXEddie, on Friday, August 18th, 2006, 10:52 PM, said:

The very amatuer-ish(sp...is that a word) for you to think that the unknown mucked cards could come into play. Ill tell you right now to stop it
this is not quite true. It is easier to do live, but reducing potential outs for unseen mucked cards is not necessarily "amateurish" (yes its a word without the hyphen). Mason Malmouth started a thread on this at 2+2 a while ago. There can be inferences drawn about mucked cards from prior action, particularly about the presence of Aces. The accuracy and value of them might be fairly weak, especially compared to imputing unseen cards when you are counting cards at black jack, but can affect close decisions (eg where you are on a flush plus overpair draw with an A, you may be able to adjust your chances of getting the A based on imputing lack or presence of Aces in folded hands based on their position and how A hands would be expected to react.another example is if there is a bet that you recognize as being likely to be protecting against a flush draw, and someone between you and the bettor takes an unusual amount of time to respond (or live you can even see them moving their lips or some other "calculation" behavior). An inference that they have one or two of your flush outs is not at all out of line.
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#23 mrbluto

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Posted 19 August 2006 - 02:13 PM

View Postpokerroomace, on Friday, July 21st, 2006, 1:10 PM, said:

If you have the right odds to call a hand, at the beginning of a tourney, should you go for it or not? and why not?Eg:10 person SnG: first hand:blinds are 10/20. Everyone has a stack of 1500 chips. You're in the BB and everyone folds till the SB who raises allin.Your hand is 55 and the other guys hand is AQo (lets say for arguments sake that he showed you his cards, so you're 100% sure what he has).Do you call or fold? You're getting the right odds. But you're putting the SnG on a 50-50 hand.I would definitely fold in this situation and I think that's the right play. But what's the reason for folding?In a cash game you would definitely make a call here, right? (If you make this call 1000 times you'll have a made a profit at the end of it)Elie
I ran into problems twice in s&g's with sb and bb going all in on the first hand and me with A-K, the first time I called he had 77, and I lost, the second time I called and the player had A-Q and I won.I think you have to play the big hands early against an all in and hope they are protecting a average hand.

#24 WowThats

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 02:12 PM

My personal opinion: Before calling just because you have pot odds you have to look at all the possible scenarios.THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR:Do you have a realistic chance of winning... lots of people on this site advocate calling just because you have pot odds, which is goofy or as they say a donkey move.Tournaments:How close are you to the money? If I am in the top five in chips count "on the bubble" I will throw away AA I will let the small stacks fight it out. No reason to get sucked out on by a desperate player. BTW: there is more to "why I would throw away AA".Everyone will have a opinion about how it should be played out just remember to think it through before it is your turn. I've seen many players even the so called pros calling with no chance of winning because they have pot odds.

#25 copernicus

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 02:49 PM

You might be more comfortable in the General forum making statements like this:"If I am in the top five in chips count I will throw away AA I will let the small stacks fight it out."thats the worst big stack tournament advice Ive ever seen.
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#26 WowThats

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 04:18 PM

You just don't understand all aspects of position in tournament play... You have to think beyond "pray and play". :club:

#27 Actuary

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 06:46 PM

View PostWowThats, on Monday, August 21st, 2006, 4:18 PM, said:

You just don't understand all aspects of position in tournament play... You have to think beyond "pray and play". :D
how many tournies have you played?the sad thing is you probably won't post for much longer; and we will miss the entertainment while you will miss the enlightenment :D :) :club: :club: :) :P :club: :) :P :D :club: :

#28 WowThats

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 07:16 PM

Don't worry about how I play Actuary worry more about how you play... you appear to be just another player who tosses in their chips just because without thinking through all the possible scenarios. There are times in every tournament when you should not get involved with AA or KK, try to think of those possibilities you will answer you're own questions, it may help you become a better player and maybe enlighten yourself or you can continue to entertain yourself. B)

#29 Actuary

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 07:28 PM

View PostWowThats, on Monday, August 21st, 2006, 7:16 PM, said:

Don't worry about how I play Actuary worry more about how you play
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#30 Royal_Tour

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 07:32 PM

View PostWowThats, on Monday, August 21st, 2006, 8:16 PM, said:

Don't worry about how I play Actuary worry more about how you play... you appear to be just another player who tosses in their chips just because without thinking through all the possible scenarios. There are times in every tournament when you should not get involved with AA or KK, try to think of those possibilities you will answer you're own questions, it may help you become a better player and maybe enlighten yourself or you can continue to entertain yourself. B)
Are you for real?Honestly, do you seriously believe you're giving valid advice? YOu should use the opportunity to better yourself as a player.The only time to fold a big hand like that is on the bubble of a satelite where all the pirzes are the same.As a big stack, you should go on a tear, When i win tournaments its because i'm a killer knocking out player after player, Its very rare that you win a tournament and only knock out a couple players.



#31 WowThats

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 09:27 PM

It is difficult to express an opinion "the world is wrong they are right"! Gee Royal you got one possibility right... Bet you take the short bus to your Area 51 vacation home, a high percentage of the people here would not have even got one right they only want to say your wrong and they're right!Remember the category of this thread "tournament" cash games are different! I never said I would just fold AA or KK you have to understand every possibility outcome when playing in a tournament. A high percentage of people have tunnel vision they can not think beyond what is in front of their face.I relate poker to sports "lots of people think they understand everything there is to know about a sport, in reality they don't understand anything about the game they just play to have fun".

#32 copernicus

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Posted 21 August 2006 - 10:41 PM

View PostWowThats, on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006, 1:27 AM, said:

It is difficult to express an opinion "the world is wrong they are right"! Gee Royal you got one possibility right... Bet you take the short bus to your Area 51 vacation home, a high percentage of the people here would not have even got one right they only want to say your wrong and they're right!Remember the category of this thread "tournament" cash games are different! I never said I would just fold AA or KK you have to understand every possibility outcome when playing in a tournament. A high percentage of people have tunnel vision they can not think beyond what is in front of their face.I relate poker to sports "lots of people think they understand everything there is to know about a sport, in reality they don't understand anything about the game they just play to have fun".
are you mattnxtc with a gimmick name? Hes the only other poster ive seen who is as consistently wrong as you are when you get specific, and mouth platitudes that have no value to sound like you can get something right.
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#33 Actuary

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 07:03 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Monday, August 21st, 2006, 10:41 PM, said:

are you mattnxtc with a gimmick name?
I never noticed this about Matt.But I saw him in Limit more.Funny, though, I was actually thinking of Rocketwadster when I read Wow's latest. All the worst parts of Rocket, without the humility and actual poker knowledge, or hot avitar. But eh, otherwise!

#34 throwemaway

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 08:20 AM

View PostWowThats, on Monday, August 21st, 2006, 9:27 PM, said:

It is difficult to express an opinion "the world is wrong they are right"! Gee Royal you got one possibility right... Bet you take the short bus to your Area 51 vacation home, a high percentage of the people here would not have even got one right they only want to say your wrong and they're right!Remember the category of this thread "tournament" cash games are different! I never said I would just fold AA or KK you have to understand every possibility outcome when playing in a tournament. A high percentage of people have tunnel vision they can not think beyond what is in front of their face.I relate poker to sports "lots of people think they understand everything there is to know about a sport, in reality they don't understand anything about the game they just play to have fun".
Please sir...enlighten us...Show me a good time to fold AA with a bunch of short stacks(besides in a satellite where all prizes are the same like Royal mentioned)
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#35 Jam-Fly

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 03:03 PM

No. IMO, there is never a need to put your tournament on the line in the first 4 levels of a SNG, certainly not pre flop
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#36 copernicus

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 03:31 PM

View PostActuary, on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006, 11:03 AM, said:

I never noticed this about Matt.But I saw him in Limit more.Funny, though, I was actually thinking of Rocketwadster when I read Wow's latest. All the worst parts of Rocket, without the humility and actual poker knowledge, or hot avitar. But eh, otherwise!
]my matt problems are in the Religion forum, nothing to do with poker, but since hes on ignore it will never turn into poker issues!
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#37 Actuary

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 04:09 PM

View PostJam-Fly, on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006, 3:03 PM, said:

No. IMO, there is never a need to put your tournament on the line in the first 4 levels of a SNG, certainly not pre flop
with any hand?**************************

View Postcopernicus, on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006, 3:31 PM, said:

]my matt problems are in the Religion forum, nothing to do with poker, but since hes on ignore it will never turn into poker issues!
wow.I have no one on ignore.Hard to imagine he could offend you that badly!don't ignore me.I'm a Christian too.I stay clear of the topic for the most part though

#38 copernicus

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Posted 22 August 2006 - 07:29 PM

View PostActuary, on Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006, 8:09 PM, said:

with any hand?**************************wow.I have no one on ignore.Hard to imagine he could offend you that badly!don't ignore me.I'm a Christian too.I stay clear of the topic for the most part though
Its been a long time, but it certainly wasnt for his particular beliefs. Most likely for trying to bluff his way through a debate using faulty logic and steadfastly ignoring those who explained his logical fallacies.
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#39 WowThats

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Posted 23 August 2006 - 11:59 AM

Last night while playing a 120 $225 live tournament there were five left at this point I am the chip leader. Within 3 hands (played none) I was third in chips with three remaining players. UTG I get QQ blinds are 4k/8k I raise to 20k, SB goes all in, BB calls the all in.I look at the BB my instinct is telling she is calling for pot odds with maybe one face card. SB my instinct says he has two face cards maybe AK, I think for a while then fold. SB asks why did you fold, BB says I surprised you folded...why?My response: I say to the BB I think you called for pure pot odds with one face card, I believe the SB has AK or two face cards I do believe I am in the lead at this point, the cash difference between 2nd and 3rd is fair amount I believe the SB will knock you out (now I do a Hullmuth to see if I can get into the SB head). That will leave me HU with him "I know I'm the better player" and the cash difference between 1st and 3rd is a lot of money. The SB did win the hand hitting runner, runner for a straight "I would have lost and come in third". HU I make several plays to get the chip count even when I get 10/6c in the BB the SB raises to 20k I call... flop 10 - 6 - J rainbow, I check SB bets 30% of their chips, I raise leaving the SB with 20k, SB goes all in, I call. runner , runner for a straight "I lose".It does not always work out to your favor, I did play it the way I wanted too.

#40 gobears

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Posted 23 August 2006 - 12:20 PM

View PostWowThats, on Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006, 12:59 PM, said:

Last night while playing a 120 $225 live tournament there were five left at this point I am the chip leader. Within 3 hands (played none) I was third in chips with three remaining players. UTG I get QQ blinds are 4k/8k I raise to 20k, SB goes all in, BB calls the all in.I look at the BB my instinct is telling she is calling for pot odds with maybe one face card. SB my instinct says he has two face cards maybe AK, I think for a while then fold. SB asks why did you fold, BB says I surprised you folded...why?My response: I say to the BB I think you called for pure pot odds with one face card, I believe the SB has AK or two face cards I do believe I am in the lead at this point, the cash difference between 2nd and 3rd is fair amount I believe the SB will knock you out (now I do a Hullmuth to see if I can get into the SB head). That will leave me HU with him "I know I'm the better player" and the cash difference between 1st and 3rd is a lot of money. The SB did win the hand hitting runner, runner for a straight "I would have lost and come in third". HU I make several plays to get the chip count even when I get 10/6c in the BB the SB raises to 20k I call... flop 10 - 6 - J rainbow, I check SB bets 30% of their chips, I raise leaving the SB with 20k, SB goes all in, I call. runner , runner for a straight "I lose".It does not always work out to your favor, I did play it the way I wanted too.
What were the stack sizes when you were down to 3?Also, what were the payouts for 1st, 2nd and 3rd?Now this post had some meat to it although it's hard for me to give an opinion without the stack sizes and payout structure.
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