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If You Have The Pot Odds Should You Always Go For It?


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#1 pokerroomace

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 10:10 AM

If you have the right odds to call a hand, at the beginning of a tourney, should you go for it or not? and why not?Eg:10 person SnG: first hand:blinds are 10/20. Everyone has a stack of 1500 chips. You're in the BB and everyone folds till the SB who raises allin.Your hand is 55 and the other guys hand is AQo (lets say for arguments sake that he showed you his cards, so you're 100% sure what he has).Do you call or fold? You're getting the right odds. But you're putting the SnG on a 50-50 hand.I would definitely fold in this situation and I think that's the right play. But what's the reason for folding?In a cash game you would definitely make a call here, right? (If you make this call 1000 times you'll have a made a profit at the end of it)Elie

#2 mtdesmoines

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 10:47 AM

RE-buy: yesother situations: no (55 ?!?!?!)I hate rebuys.
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#3 Dannon

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 04:48 PM

completely agree, folde the 55 if its not a rebuy, good players don't like coinflips, if you are better then your opponent, why risk your tournament on a coin flip? And I hate rebuys too...

#4 kidprodigy08

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Posted 23 July 2006 - 09:16 PM

depends on how good you are, if you are better than 50% of the players than fold, if you suck then call
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#5 navybuttons

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Posted 24 July 2006 - 05:44 AM

there was a whole thread last week where i advocated folding AK in the BB if SB goes all in with QJ on the first hand of the main event.however, i think this situation is completely different. the slightest reason for the call is the positive equity from it being our blind (although this is relatively moot)in the main event having 20000 chips to start the second hand does very little for our overall chances to win the tournament.however doubling up in the first hand of a SNG does a whole lot for our chances of winning.if you are a good player you can use those chips to basically coast your way into the money (without having to showdown another hand) and if you are a bad player all you have to do is probably play really tight to make it into the money.it would also show the table that you are willing to take an absolute gamble. (makes them less likely to raise your blind and less likely to call your raises IMO)
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#6 Sluggo

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Posted 29 July 2006 - 03:08 PM

If you have to ask, you should call 100% of the time. Don't wait for a worse spot to get your money in.
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#7 76clubs

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Posted 31 July 2006 - 09:37 AM

If I had that same situation in a cash game I would fold it. jsI'm not that good though....

#8 copernicus

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Posted 01 August 2006 - 07:56 PM

View Postnavybuttons, on Monday, July 24th, 2006, 9:44 AM, said:

there was a whole thread last week where i advocated folding AK in the BB if SB goes all in with QJ on the first hand of the main event.however, i think this situation is completely different. the slightest reason for the call is the positive equity from it being our blind (although this is relatively moot)in the main event having 20000 chips to start the second hand does very little for our overall chances to win the tournament.however doubling up in the first hand of a SNG does a whole lot for our chances of winning.if you are a good player you can use those chips to basically coast your way into the money (without having to showdown another hand) and if you are a bad player all you have to do is probably play really tight to make it into the money.it would also show the table that you are willing to take an absolute gamble. (makes them less likely to raise your blind and less likely to call your raises IMO)
that depends on what you mean by doubling up "does very little for your overall chances". In either case doubling up doubles your chances of winning. However in the SnG that means going from 10% to 20%, and in the ME from .025% to .005%.Also due to the steepness of the SnG payout structure doubling your chances of winning is far short of doubling your $EV, because you are foregoing some of your chances of 2d place and some of your chances at 3rd place. In the shallower payout structure of a large MTT, doubling your chances of winning comes closer to doubling your EV.(Note that this effect...the reduction in probability of lower payouts when you increase your probability of higher payouts and the resulting less than proportional increase in EV...is what is responsible for the "chips lose value" paradox. I call it a paradox because your chances of winning improve proportionally with your stack (or more than proportionally if you are a good big stack player) but your EV doesnt increase in proportion to those chips. So on one hand additional chips apparently are at least equal in value, and on the other hand they apparently lose value.In a single prize satellite it becomes obvious that both P(winning) and $EV increase in the same proportion. Its only a mutlitple prize structure that leads to the paradox.
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#9 Actuary

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Posted 01 August 2006 - 10:19 PM

Copernicus,I'm not a fan of the tEV equations but I have no basisMy theory is thast actual results do not mirror the expectations close enough to prove them to be good indicators.I think their is so much moving of the chips that no set of formulae can affix TEQ properly.How dumb am I ?

#10 copernicus

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 04:06 AM

View PostActuary, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 2:19 AM, said:

Copernicus,I'm not a fan of the tEV equations but I have no basisMy theory is thast actual results do not mirror the expectations close enough to prove them to be good indicators.I think their is so much moving of the chips that no set of formulae can affix TEQ properly.How dumb am I ?
As long as the skill level disparity isnt huge I think ICM (or the model used for sit-n-go analyzer) are actually pretty good. And skill level is equalized to a great extent by low stack/blind ratios toward the end of the tournament and luck in all stages of a tournament...so I like them. They are sound mathematically, and particularly in late stages when the stacks are fairly wide spread (where most of the bubble play questions come in) they clarify the best moves well. Are they really accurate to .2% of the prize pool...no...but a lot closer than "common sense" analysis of the best move.
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#11 Squirrelmonger

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 05:00 AM

Quote

However in the SnG that means going from 10% to 20%, and in the ME from .025% to .005%
I hate when I go all-in on a hand, proceed to win the hand and lose 4/5ths of my stack as a result >< :club: Although this year in the main event its somewhere around going from 0.000114% of the chips to 0.000228% of the chips. Leaving only 99.999772% of the chips to be won!

#12 Actuary

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 06:50 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 4:06 AM, said:

. Are they really accurate to .2% of the prize pool...no...but a lot closer than "common sense" analysis of the best move.
is there empiracle evidence?

#13 copernicus

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 02:41 PM

View PostActuary, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 10:50 AM, said:

is there empiracle evidence?
Of which...ICM/tournament chip models in general, or end game/sit n go analysis ala sit-n-go analyzer?On the former, not that I know of. I would love to have access to chip counts every n minutes from a a few thousand online tourneys, but i dont think any site is going to fork them over.On the latter...the best empirical evidence is using it as the learning aid its intended to be, and seeing how often your gut instinct is wrong and the improvement in SnG ROI as a result.
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#14 Actuary

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 03:20 PM

View Postcopernicus, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 2:41 PM, said:

On the former, not that I know of. I would love to have access to chip counts every n minutes from a a few thousand online tourneys, but i dont think any site is going to fork them over.
you hit on my point of skeptism.the chip counts change so often how possibly can the TEQ be predictive?my questions are ignorant I know..cant really put into words.

#15 Gooser

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Posted 02 August 2006 - 03:28 PM

i like a call with the 55 vs ak 1st hand. You either double up and can then really make some plays and build your stack up and dominate your table - or youre out and didnt waste any more than a few minutes p.s. i think this play also depends on the stakes of the mtt, id be willign to do the for a 30 tourney or less, but probably not make the gamble in a super weekday for instance (unless i qualified for <30 :club:
and with the other hand ill doodle on some napkins, f*ck you with a loaf of bread and make you cheat on atkins.


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#16 kevinoc85

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Posted 03 August 2006 - 11:17 AM

View PostGooser, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 4:28 PM, said:

i like a call with the 55 vs ak 1st hand. You either double up and can then really make some plays and build your stack up and dominate your table - or youre out and didnt waste any more than a few minutes p.s. i think this play also depends on the stakes of the mtt, id be willign to do the for a 30 tourney or less, but probably not make the gamble in a super weekday for instance (unless i qualified for <30 :club:
i agree. if it's a tournament you can afford to lose, then by all means, call because you can get yourself a big stack, and if you know how to use a big stack, then you'll be in a good position to make the final table. but if it were... say the main event of the wsop, then of course i wouldn't call.

#17 canadapoker5

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 03:24 PM

Personally, I would probably fold 5-5 would have to have at least 2 to 1 or better odds especially early in a tournament or SnG.Just my thoughts, no criticism intendend toward anyone.

#18 copernicus

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Posted 13 August 2006 - 05:52 PM

View PostActuary, on Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006, 7:20 PM, said:

you hit on my point of skeptism.the chip counts change so often how possibly can the TEQ be predictive?my questions are ignorant I know..cant really put into words.
certainly minor changes in chip counts happen often enough that there is a lot of noise inherent in small differences. However, grouping the data along with a bit of Whittaker-Henderson Type B graduation (sorry for the inside actuary joke) should give some fairly solid evidence in favor/against ICM.
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#19 pragtyro

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 06:00 PM

The math on this is next to impossible, but at this point wouldn't pocket 5's be BEHIND AQ? 8 folds on the first hand of an STT makes me think that those 16 cards in the muck didn't include alot of aces or queens.

#20 ChrisRichey

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Posted 18 August 2006 - 06:11 PM

View Postcanadapoker5, on Sunday, August 13th, 2006, 4:24 PM, said:

Personally, I would probably fold 5-5 would have to have at least 2 to 1 or better odds especially early in a tournament or SnG.Just my thoughts, no criticism intendend toward anyone.
I agree. Wheter it is mathematically correct or not, I would rather pick a better place to shove all of my chips in.




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