18 replies to this topic

[gobears]

This is from memory as I'm at work

About 30 players left, we're in the money. Blinds 3K/6K I'm in about 10th.

Hero in the SB: 121K
UTG+1: 85K
Button: 153K

Both UTG+1 and Button are aggressive but seem to know what they are doing

I find QQ in the SB. UTG+1 raises to 20K, Button pushes all-in and says "I have AA". Button has been involved in many pots but never chatted while in a pot until know; this is also his first push that I've seen.

What's your play? All-in or fold?

[throwemaway]

This is from memory as I'm at work

About 30 players left, we're in the money. Blinds 3K/6K I'm in about 10th.

Hero in the SB: 121K
UTG+1: 85K
Button: 153K

Both UTG+1 and Button are aggressive but seem to know what they are doing

I find QQ in the SB. UTG+1 raises to 20K, Button pushes all-in and says "I have AA". Button has been involved in many pots but never chatted while in a pot until know; this is also his first push that I've seen.

What's your play? All-in or fold?

Oh boy..I would be crying once I saw that in the chat...Do you think its possible he was trying to type that to someone in AIM and accidentally put it in the chat? Ive done that before and nearly threw up lol..

Your not desperate here at all, so I might let this go..I don't know though, weird hand

[SavageHenry]

How many chips does the utg+1 have ? If he is pot committed i think i fold. if he isn't pot committed i think i still fold you have a decent stack that you can steal and bully with.

[shpaget]

I fold.

He's either tried to put this into MSM, and accidentally put it into the chat window.

Or he's using reverse psychology and hoping you don't believe him.

[Actuary]

I reluctantly fold.

Take money from shorter stacks.

[simo_8ball]

I think this is an msn chat gone wrong or a guy being insanely honest often enough for you to safely fold this.

on a sidenote, if you call with QQ and he does show AA you look like the world's biggest idiot.

[mk]

You can report him for that because it's cheating. I definitely would've. Suited Up did the same thing to Bizzle in a Neg-O and Bizzle hates him to this day, lol.

Interesting hand even (especially?) if he doesn't type into chat.

First, what are our pot odds? The pot is 150k when it gets to us and it's 118k to call, which gives us 1.27:1, which means we need to be 44% to win vs. button (assuming UTG+1 folds if we call) in order to break even. Not very good, but not terrible. What range can we assign the button? He's risking half his stack; he probably has a good hand. I'd guess his range is something close to [TT+, AQ+]. Against this range, QQ is 55% to win, so calling makes money (our EV is 147k in this case, or +29k). What if he's a little tighter and only moves in here with [JJ+, AK]? QQ is 47% to win, so the call still makes money, but not much (our EV is 126k in this case, or +8k). Surprisingly, if we limit button's range to just [QQ+, AK], QQ is still 40% to win! So it would still be a very close call and if I somehow knew that UTG+1 would fold, I would almost definitely make it.

But what if the initial raiser calls? What kind of range would UTG+1 call with? Let's assume he knows what he's doing and he will look at pot odds himself. If we call, the main pot will be 196k and he will only have to put in 65k more to call, which gives him almost exactly 3:1 odds, meaning he needs only 25% equity to break even. He should be willing to gamble with a pretty decent range. His calling range should be something like [88+, AJ+]. Against this range for UTG+1 and [TT+, AQ+] for the button, QQ is about 41% to win which is excellent. In this case, our equity in the main pot is 41%, and our equity in the side pot (which we figured out earlier) is 55%. Working through the numbers we find

EV(main pot) = .41 * (196k+65k) = 107k
EV(side pot) = .55 * 72k = 40k

which added together gives us the same EV of 147k that we have if UTG+1 folds.

If UTG+1's calling range is tighter, say, the same as the button's jamming range [TT+, AQ+], our queens shrink up a little more, but we are still a favorite at 38%. In this case

EV(main pot) = .38 * (196k+65k) = 99k
EV(side pot) = .55 * 72k = 40k
for a total EV of 139k, so the call still makes money.

Calling with queens after a raise and a re-raise is difficult, but I think it would be mathematically correct in this situation. It should be noted that this is very likely the weakest hand you would be willing to call with. JJ doesn't do nearly as well. AK actually does considerably worse too.

[timwakefield]

I would definitely report him for cheating.

As for the hand, that's a noodle-scratcher. I would probably fold, I think players tell the truth there looking for a call more often than not.


P.S. MK that's a great breakdown you did. You're right that the hand is much more interesting without the chat. In most of the tournaments I play in I would be calling there.

[mbreon]

I fold the QQ here...not an easy hand to lay down, but you can certainly find a better spot....as others have stated, the villain could have inadvertently been trying to type to someone through AIM or such. As actuary stated, I look to pick on shorter stacks as opposed to getting involved with all of my money here.

[gobears]

Thanks for the analysis MK - you know, my gut was saying to call right before I noticed his chat. I folded instead mainly due to the reverse psychology angle and the chance he was trying to IM somebody. UTG+1 folded as well so I never found out what he had.


Now is it really "cheating" if you put in that you have aces or is it more angle shooting? The line about what is acceptable and what is not sometimes blurs as you can say "Call me, I have nothing" but you can't say "I have AA"?

Just wondering what the T&C's say on the various poker sites about this. It never really crossed my mind to report this as I thought that if he did it deliberately, it was unethical but within the rules.

[shpaget]

Deleted as per brain cramp.

[Spence]

I'd vomit in my mouth.

Call with the Queens.

Then swallow to punish myself.

[XXEddie]

Thanks for the analysis MK - you know, my gut was saying to call right before I noticed his chat. I folded instead mainly due to the reverse psychology angle and the chance he was trying to IM somebody. UTG+1 folded as well so I never found out what he had.
Now is it really "cheating" if you put in that you have aces or is it more angle shooting? The line about what is acceptable and what is not sometimes blurs as you can say "Call me, I have nothing" but you can't say "I have AA"?

Just wondering what the T&C's say on the various poker sites about this. It never really crossed my mind to report this as I thought that if he did it deliberately, it was unethical but within the rules.

I believe saying 'im bluffing' and 'I have a good hand' is ok. But if you say something like 'I have AA' you wont get a penalty....unles you actually have AA

[Spence]

If you tell the truth it's illegal to do.

Pretty effed up, but those are the rules.

[blakheart]

You can report him for that because it's cheating. I definitely would've. Suited Up did the same thing to Bizzle in a Neg-O and Bizzle hates him to this day, lol.

Interesting hand even (especially?) if he doesn't type into chat.

First, what are our pot odds? The pot is 150k when it gets to us and it's 118k to call, which gives us 1.27:1, which means we need to be 44% to win vs. button (assuming UTG+1 folds if we call) in order to break even. Not very good, but not terrible. What range can we assign the button? He's risking half his stack; he probably has a good hand. I'd guess his range is something close to [TT+, AQ+]. Against this range, QQ is 55% to win, so calling makes money (our EV is 147k in this case, or +29k). What if he's a little tighter and only moves in here with [JJ+, AK]? QQ is 47% to win, so the call still makes money, but not much (our EV is 126k in this case, or +8k). Surprisingly, if we limit button's range to just [QQ+, AK], QQ is still 40% to win! So it would still be a very close call and if I somehow knew that UTG+1 would fold, I would almost definitely make it.

But what if the initial raiser calls? What kind of range would UTG+1 call with? Let's assume he knows what he's doing and he will look at pot odds himself. If we call, the main pot will be 196k and he will only have to put in 65k more to call, which gives him almost exactly 3:1 odds, meaning he needs only 25% equity to break even. He should be willing to gamble with a pretty decent range. His calling range should be something like [88+, AJ+]. Against this range for UTG+1 and [TT+, AQ+] for the button, QQ is about 41% to win which is excellent. In this case, our equity in the main pot is 41%, and our equity in the side pot (which we figured out earlier) is 55%. Working through the numbers we find

EV(main pot) = .41 * (196k+65k) = 107k
EV(side pot) = .55 * 72k = 40k

which added together gives us the same EV of 147k that we have if UTG+1 folds.

If UTG+1's calling range is tighter, say, the same as the button's jamming range [TT+, AQ+], our queens shrink up a little more, but we are still a favorite at 38%. In this case

EV(main pot) = .38 * (196k+65k) = 99k
EV(side pot) = .55 * 72k = 40k
for a total EV of 139k, so the call still makes money.

Calling with queens after a raise and a re-raise is difficult, but I think it would be mathematically correct in this situation. It should be noted that this is very likely the weakest hand you would be willing to call with. JJ doesn't do nearly as well. AK actually does considerably worse too.

nice analysis.

I would expand buttons range here and call, without the chat. with the chat.. probably fold. brutally tough, but good fold i think.

[shpaget]

If you tell the truth it's illegal to do.

Pretty effed up, but those are the rules.

In a tournament if you say ANYTHING about your hand that can influence play it is illegal, whether what you say is true or not (I believe there may be an exception if you are asked by the potential caller).

[RDog]

Fold. No doubt it is chat/aim gone wrong. Done it myself. I was talking trash and not exposing my hand so not as bad. Even if it was purposely done, I would say he is either telling the truth or it is AK. Don't like those options. Unfortunately, fold.

[tskillz187]

Even without the chat I'm reluctantly folding. Wish there was no chat, as it would have been a much more interesting debate as MK pointed out.

[caviness36]

Without the chat, I'm calling here. I realize you have a healthy stack, and QQ can be vulnerable, but chit, it's the 3rd/4th best starting hand, so odds are you're way head. Having said that, once he says, "I have AA", I'm folding. Even if he's lying, I do not want to be dominated here, and his statement puts just enough doubt in my mind.