3 replies to this topic

[Slow Clap]

100 NL on Bodog

Hero - $100 (UTG) Kc Kh
SB - $27
BB - $225

preflop
Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls, BB calls

Flop($10.50) - 6h Qd 5d

SB bets 6.75, BB calls, Hero raises to $16, SB calls, BB calls

Turn($57.50) 3h

SB checks, BB checks, Hero goes all in for $78, SB calls $8 all in, BB folds

SB shows QcJc, Hero wins $71.50

My question is this: Assuming you think you have the best hand on the turn and assuming the BB is on a draw, is it better to go all in and be happy taking down a $57 pot, or to bet 3/4s to pot sized bet getting the BB to chase incorrectly with his possible draw.

I know Sklansky's fundamental theorem would suggest the correct move would be to make a bet on the turn that the BB would be making a mistake to call and it does not matter if you get sucked out on because you have forced your opponent to make a mistake. But by going all-in on the turn I thought I could take down a risk free $71. Would you guys take the risk free $71 or go for a maybe 70% chance of winning $115 and a 30% chance of winning $0.

Also, at these stakes, i have seen players make all in calls with flush draws here, so I could be forcing the BB into make a huge mistake.

How you do guys approach these situations?

[LongLiveYorke]

70% of 115 is better than 100% of 71

.7*115 = 80.5 > 71

[timwakefield]

From your example, when you assume BB is on a draw you also assume that you will not pay him off on the river when he outdraws you.

[Scott3705]

From your example, when you assume BB is on a draw you also assume that you will not pay him off on the river when he outdraws you.

Fundamental to undestanding the concept of every thing is ok as long as opponent makes a mistake is that you do not make a mistake. If he draws at improper pot odds but is compensated by implied odds by you, then you should just move in. If you're able to make good reads and folds, then it's ok to make smaller bets. In thsi case, the turn is an all-in anyway so it doesn't really matter.