11 replies to this topic

[TheCinciKid]

53 left in a Party MTT and 50 will cash.

You have a stack a little below 1/2 of the average, but your M is still around 3 or 4.

Folded to you on the button and you have A3o. Blinds can both break you, but neither is a huge stack.

Do you fold, raise or go all-in? And, why?

[unkysimba]

are you playing to barley make it into the money? if so then fold and try to out last 3 other people. if you are playing to win, you have to push and at least try to pick up blinds, if anything and if you got called, hope youre in good shape and can double up, because you need the chips. there should be no raising when you have an m of 3 or 4, its either push or fold.

[timwakefield]

To me this is a very easy decision: push. With an M of 3 or 4 and first-in-vigorish on the button I think you should be pushing with much less than A3.

Are you worried about going out on the bubble? I hope not, because worrying won't help you play well. This is a good opportunity to add 25% to your stack.

[TheCinciKid]

I have to admit that I'm a little surprised by the replies here. I'll get into why a little later when more people have had a chance to respond.

[throwemaway]

Well the problem with pushing here is your going to be dominated anytime your called pretty much, unless someone heros up with kq or kj..But I think w/ how short you are and A high on the button, I'm willing to take the f/e I have and jam it..It depends how much bubbling out is worth to you though

[timwakefield]

It depends how much bubbling out is worth to you though

If you're feeling desparate to make it to the $$ then you are playing above your limits.

[throwemaway]

If you're feeling desparate to make it to the $$ then you are playing above your limits.

Exactly..I wouldnt be in that situation, so I would push

[Davin]

play for the money.

if you're 1/2 avg and your m is 3 or 4, that means avg is 7-8 and they're in the push/fold situation as well. there's a good chance that 3 ppl will bust in the next rotation.

[Actuary]

w/o reading replies..

my initial thought was "I push!"

but then I began to think.. "lets play this in 2 stages"

1st..make the money.
2nd.. go for Final Table.

there wil be plenty of gambling soon when the bubble breaks (I hear), so take advantage then.

With the blinds covering you, I don't think the extra 25% is worth missing money., with A3 off.

I think it's close though

[TheCinciKid]

My instinct in the hand was to push, and that's what I did, however there was a part of my brain telling me it was really stupid, I could fold to the money, etc. I don't generally play to just cash though, it's not my style and it's not the way tournaments should be played. I very rarely sneak into the money. In fact, I've probably bubbled as many times as I've cashed then gone out in the next few hands.

I think this decision is close, b/c anything that calls is probably way ahead, which means that if we're gonna make this play we should probably be doing it with hands worse than A3o as well. I still think it's +EV in the long run because we're a favorite against two random hands, and a good percentage of the time we're gonna pick up the blinds. Those are pretty significant to our stack and important if you're looking to go deep.

Psychologically speaking though, bubbling can hurt and I think that's the main argument I can make for folding. Squeaking into the money could have taken a night where I'd already busted out of the 40k and turned it into a profit for the night on Party. Pyschologically speaking this could be big. However, by folding here, I think we assure ourselves of barely making it into the money. If/when we do cash our stack will be short enough that we'll probably have to push in a worse spot. I think it's a very interesting hand though and I'm glad to see that others had the same instinct I did.

FWIW....SB called with 66 and it was GG me.

[gobears]

Pokerstove is taking a long time but against two random hands, you're only 36% to win (assuming that's what the ending calc will be) which I found surprising.

Still, I think that this is a clear push and I would push with many hands that are worse than A3o. It helps that the two blinds don't have huge stacks as that helps your fold equity a tiny bit.

[Actuary]

Pokerstove is taking a long time but against two random hands, you're only 36% to win (assuming that's what the ending calc will be) which I found surprising.

that's assuming all hands call.
when we are called, we are beat much worse on ave.

so we pick up 25% a lot (but, really, how much is that worth towards achieveng the goal of much better cash?)

and when we are called, we are usally kicked to the curb.. not dbling up.

After some sleep.. I still like fold best, being so close to money.