9 replies to this topic

[screech]

Early in an sng tournament:I am one off the button with K 10 All but one players limp in ahead of me so I decide to try and see a cheap flop too.Button and the SB call. BB checks. Pot is $160.Flop is:J 9 J SB checks. BB bets $100. Normally, I am trying to get away from this hand, but there are two callers in front of me. The pot is now $460, giving me 4.6 to 1 odds. I have 12 outs if no is drawing at an ace high flush or if no one has a full house. I decide to estimate that I in fact have about 9 real outs which makes this about the right price to call.So after talking myself into calling, the button raises all-in and gets two callers, making this an easy laydown, much to my relief. Out of the three remain players:Player 1 had 10 9 Player 2 had j 9 Button had K J (go figure)My question is this:Should I have folded to the first bet and am I overestimating my real outs?I feel like I guessed 9 because that would justify a call, even though I really felt like I should get away from this hand.

[dms26]

I hate drawing to a hand that may be dead, with the board paired there I would fold. Especially early don't do anything stupid to leave you busted or crippled.

[Vade]

1. Don't post results, it makes it waayyy to easy to decide.2. If you can see the next card cheap, it might be okay, but you could be drawing to an inferior hand just as easily. Calling the 100 and folding to an all in isn't that bad of a play, imo.

[Bonobio]

I think that if this were at PokerStars, where you start with 1500 chips, I'd call that easily. Close pot odds to me don't matter much in NL tournaments in situations like this. If it were at Poker Mountain, where you start with only 800...then I'd probably fold.

[Briguy]

Without considering the results, I'd guess that you have 8 real outs...the remaining diamonds, excluding the A (often someone will be sitting on AJ). Ok to call the feeler bet (100), but not the all-in. I don't see anything wrong with your play. Of course, I suck at NL.No need to cry if the 1-outer hits, either. You did the right thing, IMO.

[dms26]

I guess my only problem with calling the 100 bet is what if the pot wasn't re-raised on the flop and the turn comes esp. the ace. Now you have the nut flush and it makes it much more painful to fold to an all-in.

[Absolute]

Don't post the results.Of course you call the $100.

[screech]

Thanks to everyone for their input.Next time I will make sure I don't post the results to make it more interesting for you guys, and to give me a more unbiased opinion.

[Abbaddabba]

The two callers should worry you. Especialy the second caller. Would he really slow play the trips with a diamond draw out there, knowing that there are people commited to the pot? Would either caller slow play with the trips with draws out there? Could you even be calling with a 9, knowing there's a better and a caller? I figure one or both of the callers is sitting with a boat OR waiting on a similar draw, potentially a higher flush draw. The better could have a lot more things. There may be someone sitting there with an open ended straight draw too, and that really is the best case scenario for you. Between the three of them, there's a reasonable chance you're drawing dead.Come up with a rough estimate of what the weighted average of your outs are, assuming each potential hand that they're sitting with - weighted by the probability of them holding it. Unless the table is extremely loose, the probability of drawing dead would overshadow the value of, in a best case scenario, your outs coming through. If you're at the low limits though, it's very possible that people are making bad calls. You have to make a judgement call with respect to whether or not you want to give your opponents any credit.