36 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

Before I answer the question, let's look at the following simulations where 7 8 is up against the following hands:vs 2 2 53.48%vs A K 41.92%vs A 6 47.59%vs A A 23.11%vs 8 6 61.76%vs A 8 34.35% Now, it's 6000 to call and you could win 8400. So you are getting about 4 to 3 odds on your money. Factoring in all of Antonio's possible holdings it appears as though I was getting the right price in this situation. I was in this hand and made a mistake. My thinking was that I could win the next hand if Antonio didn't have anything. I knew as I folded it was a mistake. I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible. It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible. Antonio later told me that he had A 6 so while I was getting 1.4 to 1 odds, I ended up folding in a coinflip situation.

[Wilderness]

Hey, I got another one right, I must be a pro My reasoning, as well as most of people in the question thread who said to call, was pretty much what you said. You've got a hand that is probably not much worse than a coinflip or so and you need to double up badly. You have no reason to think that you will either get another good hand very soon or that he will fold to an all-in push once you've folded this and maybe another hand so you have to take your chance with this hand right now.

[JohnnyCache]

My thought was at those blinds, it was better to go now then later - there's a very good chance of going broke before you get another hand as playable. Easy for me to say now tho.

[packattack]

I'm curious though Daniel...when did you end up making your move, and did you get your money in with the best hand?

[KDawgCometh]

I'm surprised that Antonio had that good of a hand considering that his range could even put you in a favorite situation. The stack is so short that you are getting good odds on your $$$ considering the opponent

[dEv~]

I voted call but I'm sad to say it wasn't for any of those reasons. Thats quite a chip desperity and with a nice suited connector I can't let it go. You're going to have to get lucky as it is...so why not try it out with a pretty hand like that.

[KingAustin]

Holy crap, after I read the situation I easily decided to call and then told myself he might have A6 or something. Now I read that he did have A6, wow!!! I can't believe I called that. Probably just lucky guess.Quick question, why are you an underdog to 8 6 ?

[Jubba]

He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards. :)I voted call because suited connectors are about a coinflip to any two random cards. And this is probably your best chance to double up and get back in the race.

[KingAustin]

Jubba said:

He's not an underdog. He's a 61.7% favorite. Those percentages are his chance of winning. You're just reading it backwards.

Wow, do I feel smart >.< :oops: :oops: This just goes to prove that my call of Antonio's cards was lucky.

[maddog2030]

DanielNegreanu said:

I later talked to Gus Hansen about the hand and he thought my laydown was absolutely horrible.  It was the wrong play for sure, but I wouldn't go as far as horrible.

I'm always interested in hearing Gus' reasoning for things. Did he explain why he thought the fold was absolutely horrible?

[jogsxyz]

Horrible? The fold can't be that bad.Assume Antonio is playing any ace, any pair.87s needs 1.48 from the pot to call. Danielis getting 1.4 on this pot. That's a marginaldon't call. Gus decided that Antonio has atempo tell. Gus called Antonio with T8 ofdiamonds when Antonio took too long to raiseall in. Say Antonio gave away that he didn'thold a high pair, AK, or AQs. Now the 87sneeds only 1.34 from the pot. This time it'smarginally right to call. Big deal. 87s isonly 47.76% against a set of random hands.Whatever Daniel did on this deal, it wouldn'thave improved his chances of winning the matchmuch. What about the hand that crippledDaniel? That's the hand I'm interested inseeing.

[Wlleiotl]

gus says to call because he has to make a stand, even if he steals next hand hes back to this same situation and theres no way to avoid having to win some races to get back from this situationthats what i think anyway

[Wlleiotl]

Short-stacked from the earlier hand, Daniel goes all in with J-10 suited against Antonio Esfandiari's K-9. The flop comes K-9-3, giving Antonio two pair, but leaving Daniel with a gut-shot straight draw. A meaningless 4 falls on the turn, and a king on the river gives Antonio a full house and eliminates Daniel Negreanu from the tournament.

[Marcstar]

I skipped the replys but I'm not sure the fold is so horrible. Surely you can pick a better spot in a hand or two where you think you might be better than a coinflip. Sure in this place we now know you are a coin flip but you are going to be a dog against a larger pair or two bigger cards. A coin flip is really about the best you could hope for. If you think half the time you are going to be a dog and half the time you might be a coin flip to me I don't want to risk my entire stack in this situation.I'm not sure if I got any of the other quiz quetions wrong but in this case I guess I got it wrong but I do disagree. It's a close one either way but I actually like how you played it in the first place. Fold. But what do I know.

[Jubba]

The problem with folding is that even if you get AA on the next hand and double up, your stack will still be insignificant. Doubling up and having a stack of 14,400 would be better than 12,000. That extra 2,400 is another 1.5 rounds of the blinds to find another strong hand.And suited connecters are about a coin-flip to any two random cards (except an overpair).

[nitrolife]

But NEXT hand pays 2400 less........and you ain't gotta no chippies. The fact remains, even Gus or DN are highly HIGHLY unlikely to come back from 10 to 1....luv'm, but it ain't happening.

[Jubba]

Yeah, thats why I say call and then have AE buy you a drink...

[AceOfSpades]

I voted call. Its a pretty easy decision if you think about it. Your sitting with 78 suited. He went all in. You only have enough chips to play 5 more hands if you fold. And if you win you double up making yourself alot more of a threat to your opponent. If lets say he was sitting with Pocket Aces Or Pockey Kings...and he revealed his cards by an accident, I would've still called him. You need to make a move at some point. He went all in, giving you a chance to double up, not many chances when the chip leaders gonna do that.

[Shorty]

vs A 8 34.35%Hey Daniel Are we playing with 2 8 of diamonds in this tourney? :PEDIT: ahhh methinks you probly mean A 8