nomad_monad, on Thursday, May 18th, 2006, 6:23 PM, said:
LJ, I give you credit for presenting a good case, but it seems to me it's reliant on a few big assumptions:1) Villain won't be making PSB or near-PSB betting a draw that stands to outdraw yours if you both hit a decent portion of the time (it doesn't even have to be that often, I think). In that case, you likely lose a substantial sum on turn/river that really eat into the long-term bottom line of calling down. Some of it may be made up by being able to bluff off the busted draw on the river if turn+river bricks, but we are not in position here, which makes bluffing *our* busted draw on the river much more difficult.2) Villain never overbets the turn. If he does, you cannot use flop equity as constant throughout the hand to justify your ROI calculation. If the villain PSB throughout, then you still get 2-1 on the turn which matches your equity *on the turn*. But if he overbets, you will get less than that, and you will have to make up the difference by having to get even more out of him on the river when your draw hits. Plus you stand to lose more when it doesn't. I would also add that the chances the villain overbets the turn are greater in the situation described here, since a PSB on the turn commits the villain, so he may be inclined to push there.Which means that the value of pushing vs. calling is twofold:1) you are *guaranteed* 55% equity for the entire hand (or 40% in the case of a set), whereas by calling down you open the door for the villain to hijack the linear progression of your equity by hammering you on the turn.2) you never offer implied odds to your villain on your draw
You are absolutely correct which is why I highlighted my assumptions very clearly.I think calling down works best at the lower limits because the assumptions tend to pan out to be true more often than not.
tapeworm, on Thursday, May 18th, 2006, 6:38 PM, said:
Yes, you made this argument before. I am one of the 85% of people suggesting a push, but I find this alternate thinking very interesting and it is presented very clearly. Do you chase till the river no matter what?(assuming pot-sized bets) or bail on certain cards?My question is, what is your game plan on the turn if...a) The board pairs on turn, and you are facing a pot-sized betb ) The board pairs on turn, and you are facing a 1/2 pot betIf you call in the above scenarios(as you wouldn't be putting in more money than a fllop-push), then what would you do if you hit your hand on the river? Also, when you count these extra scare cards as outs, does that mean you are bluffing a river if you miss a draw but another scare card comes? I ask, because you could get induced into making a -EV play on the river. It is a common play to check-call to a villain when you put him on a draw. Albeit some of your scare cards are believable enough to make it possibly worthwhile.Obviously bluffing would be read dependant, so maybe we can ignore that case, but I am interested in how you would react to bad cards coming, because I think you can end up making a bigger mistake by either folding when you still have all your outs or calling when you are dead. There are tons of arguments that have been made for pushing, and I won't rehash them, but I am itnerested in hearing how scare cards play a role in the LJ-calldown plan. Other than these minor complications(and details like assuming no overbets or not being against a better draw), I think the only other thing that I don't like is that even if you don't gain in EV by pushing, you lose in an opportunity to stack your opponent since your flush outs and the 5 should be scary enough for him to fold alot, and I think there is additional value is breaking an opponent.I am interested though, as it seems like it could be a viable alternative for cases where you feel you have a good read on your opponent, he is likely to pay you off, and you have limited folding equity. If you put your opponent on a set, it might be better way to go.
If the board pairs I'm going to stop drawing 90% of the time (10% of the time I will continue if my read is good). Nothing worse than drawing dead. Also, especially short-handed, your opponent is going to shutdown when the board pairs whether they have a boat or not. If they have it, they slow play it like the elite donks they are. If they don't have a boat they might put you on the middle pair that tripped up and give you smaller tester bets on the turn, allowing you to see the river for free and call according to how big your opponent wants to bet (fold to all-in), etc.Another factor that a lot of people leave out is how many players completely shut down after flop betting, especially after their big raise is called. You might be able to see the river for the price of a "probe" bet (opponent wants to see how you react).Again, I re-iterate that calling down is better at lower stakes where you are against unsophisticated opponents. They make lots of mistakes both before a potential draw hits and after.