89 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

Ok so you are in the second round of the National Heads Up Poker Championship and are facing Antonio Esfandiari. You've already lost a critical pot and are now sitting with 7200 in chips to his 72,800.The blinds are 600-1200 and you have the big blind leaving you 6000 remaining. Antonio moves all in and you look down at 7 8 Some background:Antonio has already made it clear verbally that he doesn't want to double you up. So with that information you assume that if you were to fold this hand, there was a reasonable chance he'd fold his big blind on the next hand.

[Absolute]

Why get your chips in here with 8 high?You need to push in the next two hands, and the odds are heavily in your favor of picking up a better heads-up hand by the time the BB hits you again.

[bigedjr17]

Although I think Antonio might be blowing smoke up your butt saying he doesn't want to double you up (of course he doesn't want to, but if you do, he'll still have almost a 5-1 chip lead) which might lead you to fold every hand he moves in with bec you think he's got a monster.. I'd still fold.. 78 soooted is a good hand to see a flop with.. but not move in with pre-flop..

[Erik67]

This seems like an easy fold, but Daniel said that this one would be tough. I play alot of HU on Poker Stars and double up alot with big Aces and Kings when I'm low stacked and get called. Of course Antonio is much better than me or the guys I'm playing and probably wouldn't call with some of the hands these guys do. You are desperate, but a high card is better in HU than low suited connectors, so why risk it with 8 high?? I think I can get a face card in the next couple of hands that he will call and have a better chance.Erik

[Briguy]

Man, this is a toughie. 78s is almost exactly a 50/50 win-loss hand against random cards HU (~47% win?).But still, I'd fold here. Heads up, you are a 40-60 dog against overcards, a 20-80 dog against an overpair, a slight coin flip underdog against A-low (or any high-low combo), and a slight coin flip favourite against an underpair. You are only a favourite (60-40) against two undercards here. There is no opportunity to push Antonio off, as he's already gone all-in. You would know better than anyone if he's liable to put you all-in with two unpaired undercards, but if you believe his verbal tell, it seems unlikely. The best case scenarios are an underpair or a high-low (which are not unlikely, I'd guess), which leaves you with a coinflip. Best case scenario.Also, I don't see much difference between 7,200 vs 72,800 and 6,000 vs 74,000. You are in deep doo-doo either way. Fold this one and push for the blind on the next hand. Yikes, regardless.

[ThePokerGeek]

I fold. Antonio might have said that he isn't going to double you up so you'd believe his hand was strong, but I would think it's a reverse psychology ploy and you wanna lay this one down. You have many more chances to find Q7s or higher, there's no need to call all-in with 78s yet.-PokerGeek

[holman3rd]

ThePokerGeek said:

I fold. Antonio might have said that he isn't going to double you up so you'd believe his hand was strong, but I would think it's a reverse psychology ploy and you wanna lay this one down. You have many more chances to find Q7s or higher, there's no need to call all-in with 78s yet.-PokerGeek

I got the last quiz right, so i'm on a roll. I'm gonna go against the majority here and say call. Antonio is likely pushing with a very wide range of hands here. His all-in indicates to me that he does not have a pocket pair, nor a strong drawing hand like AK/AQ/AJ. Could be any ace, any king, or any two, really. It appears that he's trying to knock me off my hand, and I'd expect a different play if he wanted action (i.e. if he held a very strong hand).That said, I'm in serious trouble with my stack. I believe that the odds are very high that I have two live cards plus flush and straight possibilities. I think this is almost a coin flip, so I'm gonna try to double up right here. I'm not counting on being able to steal back my blind on the next hand. From what I"ve seen on TV, Antonio doesn't seem to mind to gamble a bit, so I'm not really buying his statement about not wanting to double me up. I mean, do we expect him to say that he wants to double me up?Therefore, if I push with any two on the next hand (which I almost have to do), I'm likely to get called by a wide range of hands from Antonio. That would be the same situation I'm in now, except I'd be doing it with less chips.Sorry if this explanation isn't very clear...articulating my thoughts isn't my strength.My vote=Call.Also, I believe that on a pot odds basis, you have the right odds to call if Antonio has no better than 2 over cards. Pot odds are 1.4 to 1, and I'm a 1.38 to 1 dog to two overcards.

[mk]

I would almost like a call here, but voted to fold for 1 reason: you are not the aggressor and thus have no fold equity. I do, however, like being all-in with a hand that very likely is NOT dominated and has a lot of possibilities for a good flop.

[troutsmart]

Personally, at this point, I don't think it matters. Fold and hope you can pick up a better hand the next hand or call here. Mathmatically, you might be 60/40 dog with the pot offering 4-3. You might be more. Not the best spot to spot to put your money in, yet you just don't have much more time. Given the options of just folding or calling, life or death, I fold. Hope I get at least J high on the next hand.

[Briguy]

Quote

I got the last quiz right, so i'm on a roll. I'm gonna go against the majority here and say call. Antonio is likely pushing with a very wide range of hands here. His all-in indicates to me that he does not have a pocket pair, nor a strong drawing hand like AK/AQ/AJ. Could be any ace, any king, or any two, really. It appears that he's trying to knock me off my hand, and I'd expect a different play if he wanted action (i.e. if he held a very strong hand).

Antonio has a 10-1 chip lead. He's going to put Daniel in with any hand worth playing. And maybe even some not worth playing. The strength of the bet contains no information whatsoever.

[holman3rd]

Briguy said:

Quote

I got the last quiz right, so i'm on a roll. I'm gonna go against the majority here and say call. Antonio is likely pushing with a very wide range of hands here. His all-in indicates to me that he does not have a pocket pair, nor a strong drawing hand like AK/AQ/AJ. Could be any ace, any king, or any two, really. It appears that he's trying to knock me off my hand, and I'd expect a different play if he wanted action (i.e. if he held a very strong hand).

Antonio has a 10-1 chip lead. He's going to put Daniel in with any hand worth playing. And maybe even some not worth playing. The strength of the bet contains no information whatsoever.

Probably, as a limp by Antonio would look very suspicious. Still, the chances of two overcards or one over/one under are higher than the chances of Antonio having a pp.So, I still vote to call.

[holman3rd]

mk said:

I would almost like a call here, but voted to fold for 1 reason: you are not the aggressor and thus have no fold equity. I do, however, like being all-in with a hand that very likely is NOT dominated and has a lot of possibilities for a good flop.

Any fold equity you might have here will be even smaller on the next hand, when you hope to steal back the blinds. Still, it's a point worth mentioning, imo.

[Chicago Slim]

LOL the ultimate poker conundrum!!!! I think I would probably fold here......and wait to get at least a j, or a 10.....but then you have very little opportunity to "play around" with the blinds being where they areI think first off you should take some time and search your memory banks about Antonio's play previous to this hand (eliminating the "I dont want to double you up" quote) ......think about the hands he has pushed you with previous to this one (as it is heads up and has been from the outset) All that being said...your still 60/40.....its a tough place to beI think that in this situation I would wait...fold the hand...and hope that the cards I got in the next two hands would be more suitable to force the issue.......if I drew ANY ace in the small blind I would IMMEADIATELY push all in....and if not then I think that with any two "decent" cards in the BB it would be time....you cant wait anymoreI can see however that calling would be justified....so I dont think there is really a "wrong" answer......I just think personally I would be inclined to lay this down.....and hope for the best within the next two hands

[Hownit]

I may have already submitted a call vote. But i am changing. The only option at this point in this tourny is to double-up. There are much better hands that you will catch with 5 or 6 hands left until you are blinded out. To try to double-up. So wait for the next hand. If you have a face card, PUSH!

[GamblinLeaf]

FWIW, I'm gonna go with call. If you fold, you're left w/6k in chips. At $1800 each round that gives you only 3-1/2 rounds, 7 hands, to make the inevitable stand. You might pick up a better hand to make that stand with, then again, you might easily not. 7-8 sooooooted supposedly draws the best against monster hands, so may as well take a shot and hope its a coin flip.

[the_stein]

I would rather call at this point with 78s then for example ace2, there is a very slim chance that you are dominated, you are desperate, call

[J-Dub]

This is a real head scratcher. I feel like I'd really have to have been there the whole time to have a good feeling about whether to call or not. I know I have to make my move in the next two hands, so odds are I'll pick something better up in one of those two. But in the end, I'd say call. Although it's only 8-high, it's got possibility against anything Antonio might be holding. And if your small blind the next hand is junk it'd be very hard to push all-in in a steal attempt (I feel that'd be much more of a gamble). My gut tells me this is what Daniel did (called) and got knocked out with. But I say call.

[Wilderness]

I think I would call. Its obviously not a monster, but its a suited connector and it is unlikely to be dominated. Given the desperate position you are in, I think this hand has one of the better chances you will get over the next few hands. You might be dealt a monster, but the odds are against it and if you wait 2 or 3 more hands to get that monster then doubling up then will pretty much put you back at the same tiny stack you have now.From what I've seen of Antonio on TV, I have no reason to think that he will back off from an all-in on the next hand unless he's really got garbage. If he's got any kind of hand I'd think he would call me. I am also wary of any verbal reads, as I think he's a tricky player and not that straightforward but I also have zip experience actually playing him so maybe I'm wrong.But my vote is for call.

[LooseCannon]

In this situation, it's an automatic call with any ace, any two broadway cards, any pair, any suited connectors, and any suited one-gap connectors.Suited kings (maybe any king), suited queens, unsuited medium connectors like 98 off are probably also in play.

[cgrohman]

This one is tough. He can barely survive 3 rounds or so of blinds and he needs to double up right quick. If Antonio has something liek KJ then Danny is a 60/40 dog. If he has something liek A5, then its more like 53/47. With a short stack, coin flip situations are not that bad, especially being out chipped by that much and having the blinds come that fast. That being said, if I think I can move Antonio off of the average hand by moving any 2 cards in on the next deal then I will pass, as it is always better to be the agressor.