Big Draw, Oop On Turn

[pokerplayer24 0]

Villain is a 22/14/3. Good thinking player.PokerStars 15/30 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, T. 2 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.Flop: (6 SB) A, Q, J(2 players)Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.Turn: (5 BB) 4(2 players)Hero checksI tend to normally bet draws here but it seems like i'm getting popped up on the turn a ton lately in these spots. Thoughts? or is my draw just to strong to check here while checking just a straight draw and or flush draw would be fine.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I think if you're going to check-raise the flop, you almost have to bet out on the turn to avoid transparency. (That your hand isn't as strong as your check-raise implied.) Yes, we've got a good draw, but from an equity standpoint, with 12 outs, we're an underdog to win this pot on the flop. The reason we're check-raise semi-bluffing is to build fold equity so that we can fold a better hand, so I think you've got to try to utilize it on the turn.Yeah, you're going to get called down (or possibly raised since he's aggressive) in this spot a lot if he's got any piece of it, but there's a chance he might fold an underpair...some sort of K-rag or possibly a jack. I think a lot of it depends on what kind of range he's 3-betting pre-flop. This is actually why I dislike open-raising in this spot against a thinking, aggressive opponent.

[cu in 4years Dan 1]

i hate your check on the turn.if you miss the river card, that check on the turn is going to shoot you in the foot when you try to bluff the river

[greatwhite 0]

Lead the turn. With your massive draw he doesn't have to fold too often for this to be profitable.

[hotbacon 0]

Good turn check.Only hands that bet/call the flop and fold the turn: TT. K9s if he would 3-bet it PF.Lower PPs fold to the flop raise, and anything that hit the flop is going to SDCompare this to all the times we're getting raised by a set/two pair/AK/AT etc. and I think this is a good check.

[screech 0]

Villian folds the turn never, but will raise you a decent % of the time. He may also give you a free card. Betting seems silly.

[pokerplayer24 0]

I think if you're going to check-raise the flop, you almost have to bet out on the turn to avoid transparency. (That your hand isn't as strong as your check-raise implied.) Yes, we've got a good draw, but from an equity standpoint, with 12 outs, we're an underdog to win this pot on the flop. The reason we're check-raise semi-bluffing is to build fold equity so that we can fold a better hand, so I think you've got to try to utilize it on the turn.Yeah, you're going to get called down (or possibly raised since he's aggressive) in this spot a lot if he's got any piece of it, but there's a chance he might fold an underpair...some sort of K-rag or possibly a jack. I think a lot of it depends on what kind of range he's 3-betting pre-flop. This is actually why I dislike open-raising in this spot against a thinking, aggressive opponent.

I fold underpairs by checkraising here.Also I have a double gutshot so I have 15 outs and thus have an equity stand point am ahead on the flop.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Villian folds the turn never, but will raise you a decent % of the time. He may also give you a free card. Betting seems silly.

This isn't an terrible semi-bluffing spot, but in heads/up pots like this, your flop C/R is going to be taken with a mound of motherfucking salt. I'm sure the BB looks at you and sees that girl with the Umbrella and the Galoshes on.I doubt the BB is folding a K here, especially if he has a gutshot to go with it. He's popping you again with two pair, a made straight, or an ace. And I wouldn't be shocked to see him raise for some kind of free showdown with a hand like QJ, JT. Could even be looking to show down cheap with KT/KQ.You were a slight favorite on the flop, and have become a dog on the turn. Like I said, a bet's not really that bad, but it's rarely going to fold out a paint-card. Only reason a bet might be good if you know he's shown a propensity to stubbornly call flop check/raises in pots like this, and fold on the turn if you follow through.CheersWang

[CobaltBlue 662]

Also I have a double gutshot so I have 15 outs and thus from an equity stand point am ahead on the flop.

Ugh. Yeah...I missed that. Disregard most of what I said.

I fold underpairs by checkraising here.

Only reason a bet might be good if you know he's shown a propensity to stubbornly call flop check/raises in pots like this, and fold on the turn if you follow through.

What Wang said. I find very few villains that are going to 3-bet pre-flop and bet/fold the flop with a pair (even an underpair) HU and IP. You said he's thinking though, so he might not be the typical villain.I guess I see the reasoning for checking the turn. There are quite a few hands that will pop us, but if that's the case...I think I prefer just bet/3-betting the flop.