16 replies to this topic

[Actuary]

$20+2
6 Man
1st: $72
2nd: $48

BB and I have been stealnig each others blindss, actually, I've had decent hands on button. I recently played back at him from BB, donknig the flop after he min raised preflop and sb called as well; but otherwiose, it's been quite passive among us.

With the one shorter stack, everyoine else seemed content to play small ball.

so, I'm saying BB is not loose, nor overly aggressive OOP.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t4048)
SB (t3728)
BB (t2764)
UTG (t1460)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to t525, 1 fold, BB moves All-In for t2564, Hero ?

[mk]

Seems like you have a read that he's probably pretty strong. Even still, you're getting about 1.6:1, which means you only have to be about 40% against his range to make calling EV neutral.

AQo vs. [TT+, AQ+] is about 35%. If you can include AJ in his range, you get bumped up to 43% equity and calling becomes profitable. So, do you think he'd make this move with AJ? And even if he would move in here with AJ, you'll be risking most of your stack on a very, very small edge. I think it's a fold.

[Rocketwadster]

I think its an easy fold with ace queen. By going all in he has removed any positional disadvantage he would have with any medium pocket pair or weak ace, which is a good move on his part. You are either behind, or have him dominated IMO. More hands you are behind that dominated if I understand your description of his play correctly.

[Actuary]

well, if I'm almost good to call based on his rarther tight range, for an M~9, then given the stack and the fact we would be 3-way if I were to win, doesn't that make calling ok?

As you know, eventually, you either have to call with a likely marginaly better/worse hand (or race) or be called by a far better hand becasue you allowed all the stealing.

If I fold, 3 of us will have about 3500.
Call and win, I have ~7000, to 3500 & 1500
Lose and its 1300.

I'm don't know the Tourney Equity formulae, please assist

[Rocketwadster]

If I fold, 3 of us will have about 3500.
Call and win, I have ~7000, to 3500 & 1500
Lose and its 1300.

This is exactly why I think its an easy fold. Change the chips stacks around and it may slide to a call. You have lots of chips left if you fold here, allowing your superior play to shine through, rather than constantly coin-flipping IMO.

[mk]

I'm don't know the Tourney Equity formulae, please assist

If you fold, here are the $ equities:

Hero (t3523): $34.79
SB (t3628): $35.52
BB (t3389): $33.72
UTG (t1460): $16.02

If you call and win, here are the $ equities:

Hero (t6912): $57.28
SB (t3628): $43.49
UTG (t1460): $19.22

If you call and lose, here are the $ equities:

Hero (t1284): $15.18
SB (t3628): $38.33
BB (t5628): $49.34
UTG (t1460): $17.15

So you're actually risking about $20 in equity to gain 22, so if we solve this equation [ 57.28x + 15.18 = 34.79] for x, we get .35, so you need to be about 35% for calling to be EV neutral in terms of prize equity. Sorry about the earlier mistake.

edit: see actuary's post below for the correct equation, lol.

[Actuary]

MK,

dude, I have him covered.
I would have >0 Equity even if I lose, no?

[Rocketwadster]

If you call and lose, your equity is obviously $0. So you're giving up about $35 in equity to win an extra $22, which means you need to be better than 60% to win in order for calling to be better.

Are you sure? He has more chips that the other player...am I misunderstanding the equity thing?

[mk]

hahahaha, i forgot that you had him covered. sorry! something definitely seemed wrong there! i'll fix it.

edit: initial post fixed.

[Actuary]

MK,

thanks!
I need to look up those Equity Equations, apparently, it's more than just Total Prize Pool * % of Chips

But for this equation: [ 57.28x + 15.18 = 34.79] for x; should it be [ 57.28x + 15.18*(1-x) = 34.79] for x

?

x = 46.5% , is that right?

That is also consistent with -19.61 * (1-x) + 22.49x = 0

So, when deciding this call, its the Tourney Equity and not the Pot odds at this stage, that are most relevant, correct?

Well, I guess the math says fold..with this villains tendencies so far. Given my tight image, and his current M, I probably wanted to rationalize a call here, knowing that AQ 4 handed will be better than a lot of hands I'm going to have to call with at some point, or obviously much better than ones I'll push.

And, until you get to that point where enough stacks have to push/call with marginal hands, imo, you really don't know your fold equity. And isn't it FE that helps you decide how weak of a hand YOU CAN CALL with as well. that is, if you have no fold equity, you have to play hands based more on "this XY is likely good in a 4 handed game and I have to push/call eventually". Where as when you have FE in abundance, then laying down hands like this is easier. Of course, now, it's not to that point yet, and I probably got ahead of myself.

*****

[mk]

But for this equation: [ 57.28x + 15.18 = 34.79] for x; should it be [ 57.28x + 15.18*(1-x) = 34.79] for x

Yeah, I think you're right.

[Wingmaster05]

I think its an easy fold with ace queen. By going all in he has removed any positional disadvantage he would have with any medium pocket pair or weak ace, which is a good move on his part. You are either behind, or have him dominated IMO. More hands you are behind that dominated if I understand your description of his play correctly.

That sounds like to me you should call, but then you go back and say fold. And when you say behind, it sounds like 45/55, not dominated.

It's definitely close, if most have been playing small ball i would just fold.

[TheCinciKid]

Seems like you have a read that he's probably pretty strong. Even still, you're getting about 1.6:1, which means you only have to be about 40% against his range to make calling EV neutral.

AQo vs. [TT+, AQ+] is about 35%. If you can include AJ in his range, you get bumped up to 43% equity and calling becomes profitable. So, do you think he'd make this move with AJ? And even if he would move in here with AJ, you'll be risking most of your stack on a very, very small edge. I think it's a fold.

It's absolutely not an easy fold IMO. My gut says fold, but I really don't like it. There are a lot of hands the villain could be playing back with here that we're ahead of. In my experience late in SnGs when it gets shorthanded he could even have a weak ace. If we fold here it's going to be much more difficult for us to win the whole thing, let alone cash with there being 3 even sized stacks. If we call and win, we SHOULD win the whole SnG. I think that's worth calling most of the time.

[Actuary]

any one agree with this theory:

by the nature of the forum, we assume I called and I lost.
Thus we all tend to give "safe/tight" advice since we "know" the results.

I like to post a lot of hands I win as well, fwiw.

Or maybe I am just looser and you all (mostly) are tighter.

May I ask:

If I called, is there any arguments against the person who says "If you call a push, just push in the first place?"

[blakheart]

If I called, is there any arguments against the person who says "If you call a push, just push in the first place?"

Calling a push from the guy with $2700 is different then calling a push from the guy with $3700. I think raise call is ok, not really the hand you want to call an all in with, but not horrible. Figuring this equity equations out with the clock ticking isn't realistic, and it seems pretty close to me.

You need to gamble at some point, and as Cinci said, winning here puts you in great shape to win the tournament. It also puts the fear of God in anyone trying a resteal, figuring you to call them down. If you lose, you are not out of it, and winning puts you in a great spot.

[Rocketwadster]

And when you say behind, it sounds like 45/55, not dominated.

Right, I never claimed that we would be dominated, but it is possible if our opponent has Ace King.

I think there are way more possible hands that we are behind here than ahead of, but the ones we are ahead of we have dominated (ie. weak aces).

IMO - If you believe that you are a better player than at least 2 of the 3 players remaining, then why flip coins for the prizes when your superior playing ability still has plenty of time to shine through?

[cu in 4years Dan]

call:

1.you would love to knock the focker out and make the money.
2. its a 20 man SnG, total donk fest. your chip leader its not like its a few dimes but its not the end of the world either.