RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 4 handed, at a friend's house a couple weeks ago, so I don't remember the specifics. Villain in the hand was a good, thinking player, said he played 10/20 and some 20/40 on party. RISE is button with A J 1 fold, RISE raises, SB folds, BB callsFlop:(4 SB)J 8 4 SB checks, RISE bets, SB raises, RISE 3-bets, SB callsTurn:(5 BB) K SB bets, RISE callsRiver:(7 BB) 2 SB checks, RISE bets.... Link to post Share on other sites
Dirtydutch 9 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 I should really start reading these more closely... I missed another action. I think I call down, after the turn lead. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 check behind.What's a good player calling with here, after betting the turn?The board is draw light on the flop, so I don't see him pulling an SnG to charge draws.I'd expect to see 88, KJ enough times to check behind.Maybe weak. Link to post Share on other sites
RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 I'd expect to see 88, KJ enough times to check behind.you dont think KJ or 88 are betting the river?also, forgot to mention that he was solid, but called almost every single one of my raises pf from the BB.my whole thought process on this hand went like this:pf standard. flop, his c/r tells me he had part of this flop, J or 8 maybe. standard 3-betTurn, his bet doesn't necessarily mean a K. he knows im a decent player and can make good laydowns when i need to, so he may be semi bluffing the K (i'm still assuming he has atleast a pair). if i raise i lose the same when he 3-bets and i fold as i do going to sd, and i lose the chance to outdraw him. If i raise and he has nothing (or just an 8 or weak J) he folds and i dont win anymore. So I callRiver his check tells me he doesnt have a K or anything big or he would've value bet, so I assume my 2nd pair A kicker is good and I bet, hoping he calls with a worse J or an 8. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 yes, I'd think he would bet the river with any hand that beats you.I think if he had KJ,88 type hand, he's hoping you raise the turn.But, since you did not raise the turn, he figures you for worse than KJ, but based on flop and turn, is confident that you will bet if checked too.I presume you have shown the tendency to value bet and he's relying on that here.Or .. as you say, he has a weaker J.And if he's loose from the BB, that is more likely...than if he's tight. Can you fold to a river c/r?Yes, you are good a lot here, jsut not enoguh against a good player, to withstand a c/r.I think. Link to post Share on other sites
RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 but based on flop and turn, is confident that you will bet if checked too.what on the flop and turn suggests i will bet if checked to on the river? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 what on the flop and turn suggests i will bet if checked to on the river?you 3-bet the flop and called the turn.wHat do you mean?There are no draws so you like your hand.Have you been value betting?Can you be relied on here to bet? Link to post Share on other sites
RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 you 3-bet the flop and called the turn.wHat do you mean?There are no draws so you like your hand.Have you been value betting?Can you be relied on here to bet?yes i have been value betting, but after i just call his turn bet, i dont think he thinks im betting the river 100% of the time. I could play this hand the same way with TT or AQ, AT possibly.If I can fold to a c/r, do you like the river bet? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 yes i have been value betting, but after i just call his turn bet, i dont think he thinks im betting the river 100% of the time. I could play this hand the same way with TT or AQ, AT possibly.Say you will bet 60% if checked to and call a c/r 70% and would call his lead 90%...he makes more checking..... Link to post Share on other sites
RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 Say you will bet 60% if checked to and call a c/r 70% and would call his lead 90%...he makes more checking.....your math hurts my head.but out of 100 times this hand happens, 42 of those times I call a c/r (60 x .70), which means he makes 84 bets, if 90% of the time I call his lead, he makes 90 bets....so, youre wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 your math hurts my head.but out of 100 times this hand happens, 42 of those times I call a c/r (60 x .70), which means he makes 84 bets, if 90% of the time I call his lead, he makes 90 bets....so, youre wrong. you forgot the 60 times he makes one bet when you fold to the c/r.(0.4 * 0) + (0.6 * 0.3 * 1) + (0.6 * 0.7 * 2) = 0 + 0.18 + 0.84 = 1.02= You dont Bet + You bet and fold + You bet and call1.02 > 0.9.Please apologize. Link to post Share on other sites
RISEorFall 0 Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 you forgot the 60 times he makes one bet when you fold to the c/r. but he makes the same as c/c and risks being 3-bet. so...youre right...but its close and i refuse to apologize :glare:EDIT: plus you pulled those numbers out of your ***, so you can make them correct or not. Say I fold to a c/r 75% of the time. then (0.4*0)+(0.6*0.75*1)+(0.6*0.25*2) = 0.75and he makes more by betting Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 but he makes the same as c/c and risks being 3-bet. so...youre right...but its closehe makes more with a c/r, and consider I was pretty conservative on my assumptions of your betting/calling c/r, imo.and i refuse to apologize I'd expect nothing more. Link to post Share on other sites
Mattnxtc 0 Posted May 13, 2006 Share Posted May 13, 2006 check behind.What's a good player calling with here, after betting the turn?The board is draw light on the flop, so I don't see him pulling an SnG to charge draws.I'd expect to see 88, KJ enough times to check behind.Maybe weak.with the way this hand was played i never expect to see 88. If somebody plays 88 this way they deserve to be broke. May be kj but never 88 Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 13, 2006 Share Posted May 13, 2006 EDIT: . Say I fold to a c/r 75% of the time.yeah...sure.... Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted May 13, 2006 Share Posted May 13, 2006 You guys are being silly. Even considering to not bet that river is just out thinking yourselves. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 13, 2006 Share Posted May 13, 2006 You guys are being silly. Even considering to not bet that river is just out thinking yourselves.you bet/call or bet/fold?still silly? Link to post Share on other sites
cu in 4years Dan 1 Posted May 16, 2006 Share Posted May 16, 2006 to me when he says i play on party 10/20 20/40, he is doing it imo to make you think he is great so he can make great steals. not sure it fits in here but... Link to post Share on other sites
antistuff 0 Posted May 18, 2006 Share Posted May 18, 2006 you bet/call or bet/fold?still silly?threebet, whats another dollar?now that i look at it again a few days later, i think he either has you beat or has something like 910 that he isnt going to call with. i really don't think youre getting checkraised here, but i dont think there is much value in a bet either. this is assuming he is decent. Link to post Share on other sites
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