26 replies to this topic

[Foulky]

I read explanations on when folding AA is correct in a supersatellite that has 9 left with the top 8 receiving a seat. It was explained that you have 30% of the chips, but there is at least 1 person at the table who has more than you. If the chip leader moves in then you are mathematically correct to fold, and wait for someone else to bust since 1-8 all get paid the same prize. However, I was wondering what about a multi-way pot. I'll lay out a situation: a shortstack on the button moves in, the chip lead on the SB then moves all-in over the top and you are in the BB with AA. What should you do here? I mean if the SB makes the best hand out of the 3 of you then you still get the seat despite getting busted because the short-stack would get 9th place. If you make the best hand you obviously get the seat, but if the short-stack makes the best hand with the chip leader making the second best hand then you are out on the bubble. However, AA will rarely make the worst out of the 3 hands, but it can happen. I can't quite figure the math out, and i was wondering based on the math what the correct play is.Thanks

[Mister Hand]

Aces are going to be slightly better than a 4-1 favorite against most all-in hands. If both hands have a 1 in 5 chance of beating your aces, then there's a 4% chance that you'll end up with the third best hand, and be busted out without winning the seat. Depending on the size of the blinds and the stacks of the other players, with 30% of the chips in play, you can probably wait for the smaller stacks to go all-in and lose on their blinds, and get a seat at least 99% of the time. So it's probably still a good idea to fold here.

[Azzy666]

If you have 30% of the chips, let's assume the chip lead has 42% of the chips - fair? Worst-case scenario is the other 7 all have 4% of the chips. As such, I still would find this an easy fold.The odds of the button winning the hand AND the small blind beating you could be as low as 1% and I'd still fold.The reason is that you should be able to sit there with check/fold on and it would be EXCEEDINGLY unlikely that all of the 4% stacks survive long enough for you to blind out considering you have 8.5x each of their stacks....Just my opinion.....

[vyrusguy]

I would think folding in this situation is rediculous at best. Basically you're saying to yourself "OK, I know i'm winning...in fact, i'm a big favorite against any hand...I'll fold." If you're not going to call with that hand then why play poker at all? Playing to place in a tourney is OK, I do it on a regular basis. I worry about winning the thing after i've already placed(this is only when i'm short on cash of course). The point of poker, at least for me, is to get your chips in when you have it. So if you have the best hand why not call? I know there's a chance that you'll get outdrawn and it happens from time to time, but that's life so get over it. If you're worried about getting outdrawn every time that you KNOW that you're winning then you shouldn't be playing cards...but that's just my opinion

[Mister Hand]

vyrusguy said:

. Playing to place in a tourney is OK, I do it on a regular basis. I worry about winning the thing after i've already placed(this is only when i'm short on cash of course). The point of poker, at least for me, is to get your chips in when you have it. So if you have the best hand why not call?

Because in this case, it's a supersatellite. There is no financial advantage to finishing in first versus 8th place. By calling, your odds of winning go from at least 99% (if my estimation is correct) to 96% (getting outdrawn by both all-in hands). Why give up 3% for no additional gain?If this is was a cash tourney, where the higher you placed, the more money you would make, it would of course be correct to call in this situation.

[bourbenz]

vyrusguy said:

I would think folding in this situation is rediculous at best. Basically you're saying to yourself "OK, I know i'm winning...in fact, i'm a big favorite against any hand...I'll fold." If you're not going to call with that hand then why play poker at all? Playing to place in a tourney is OK, I do it on a regular basis. I worry about winning the thing after i've already placed(this is only when i'm short on cash of course). The point of poker, at least for me, is to get your chips in when you have it. So if you have the best hand why not call? I know there's a chance that you'll get outdrawn and it happens from time to time, but that's life so get over it. If you're worried about getting outdrawn every time that you KNOW that you're winning then you shouldn't be playing cards...but that's just my opinion

wow every argument up there just went right over your head didn't it?

[dms26]

vyrusguy said:

I would think folding in this situation is rediculous at best. Basically you're saying to yourself "OK, I know i'm winning...in fact, i'm a big favorite against any hand...I'll fold." If you're not going to call with that hand then why play poker at all? Playing to place in a tourney is OK, I do it on a regular basis. I worry about winning the thing after i've already placed(this is only when i'm short on cash of course). The point of poker, at least for me, is to get your chips in when you have it. So if you have the best hand why not call? I know there's a chance that you'll get outdrawn and it happens from time to time, but that's life so get over it. If you're worried about getting outdrawn every time that you KNOW that you're winning then you shouldn't be playing cards...but that's just my opinion

The question is specifically about super-satellites. There is no distinction in prize money between 1st and the last spot that pays. Why risk going out on the bubble with so many shortstacks around and you have a very comfortable amount of chips? It just makes no sense to battle with the chip leader in this situation.

[cdddc75]

Foulky said:

I read explanations on when folding AA is correct in a supersatellite that has 9 left with the top 8 receiving a seat.  It was explained that you have 30% of the chips, but there is at least 1 person at the table who has more than you.  If the chip leader moves in then you are mathematically correct to fold, and wait for someone else to bust since 1-8 all get paid the same prize.  However, I was wondering what about a multi-way pot.  I'll lay out a situation:  a shortstack on the button moves in, the chip lead on the SB then moves all-in over the top and you are in the BB with AA.  What should you do here?  I mean if the SB makes the best hand out of the 3 of you then you still get the seat despite getting busted because the short-stack would get 9th place.  If you make the best hand you obviously get the seat, but if the short-stack makes the best hand with the chip leader making the second best hand then you are out on the bubble.  However, AA will rarely make the worst out of the 3 hands, but it can happen.  I can't quite figure the math out, and i was wondering based on the math what the correct play is.Thanks

Remember, you are a 95.9% favorite to "win" the satellite before this hand.Six possibilities here (assuming no chops):1. SB > Chip leader > You (You finish 9th)2. SB > You > Chip leader (9 still alive, your odds of "winning the satellite" improve from 95.9% to 97.9%). 3. You > Chip leader > SB (Congratulations)4. You > SB > Chip leader (Congratulations)5. Chip leader > SB > You (Congratulations)6. Chip leader > You > SB (Congratulations)AA against the SB's hand is probably a 4 to 1 favorite. Multiply that by 4.5 to 1 (your positive outcomes based on the possibilites above), and your odds of knocking the SB out are 18 to 1. Still, you are giving away 47 to 1 odds of "winning the tournament" by calling here, plus the possibility of the chip leader "winning the tournament" for you by knocking out the SB.Long story short, it's still an easy fold.

[Azzy666]

bourbenz said:

vyrusguy said:

I would think folding in this situation is rediculous at best. Basically you're saying to yourself "OK, I know i'm winning...in fact, i'm a big favorite against any hand...I'll fold." If you're not going to call with that hand then why play poker at all? Playing to place in a tourney is OK, I do it on a regular basis. I worry about winning the thing after i've already placed(this is only when i'm short on cash of course). The point of poker, at least for me, is to get your chips in when you have it. So if you have the best hand why not call? I know there's a chance that you'll get outdrawn and it happens from time to time, but that's life so get over it. If you're worried about getting outdrawn every time that you KNOW that you're winning then you shouldn't be playing cards...but that's just my opinion

wow every argument up there just went right over your head didn't it?

lol

[Azzy666]

cdddc75 said:

Long story short, it's still an easy fold.

Well, I wouldn't say it's an easy fold, but it is a fold you should make 8)

[cdddc75]

Azzy666 said:

cdddc75 said:

Long story short, it's still an easy fold.

Well, I wouldn't say it's an easy fold, but it is a fold you should make 8)

The easy fold comment was just a nod of appreciation for Smasharoo's work.

[vyrusguy]

My apologies...I misread the post and didn't realize the specified situation. But what if you were heads up against the guy who went all in...would a call be the right play in that situation?

[Mister Hand]

Assuming that losing the hand won't damage your stack too badly, then yes, you should call the all-in if it's a heads up situation.

[jayistheman]

Mister Hand said:

Assuming that losing the hand won't damage your stack too badly, then yes, you should call the all-in if it's a heads up situation.

the all in has you covered..easiest fold ever..... tournaments are more than a poker game.... they are bigger games that involves poker.

[Mister Hand]

jayistheman said:

Mister Hand said:

Assuming that losing the hand won't damage your stack too badly, then yes, you should call the all-in if it's a heads up situation.

the all in has you covered..easiest fold ever..... tournaments are more than a poker game.... they are bigger games that involves poker.

Uhhhh...he's changing the hypothetical from two all-ins to one, and I'm assuming the one all-in that's still in the hand is the small stack on the button. I've already stated that you should fold the aces if the bigger stack is all in.Poker discussions are more than inidividual posts...they are larger discussions that involve poker.

[jayistheman]

my bad... i had another situation in mind, and being my own typical lazy self, i chose to skim the entire thread...and the tournament comment wasnt directed toward u mister hand.... you know far more than i do, "hand"s down..... HAHAHAHA.. BEST PUN EVER!! :wink:

[Solodell]

Ok, you have 30% of the chips, chip leader has more. That means at least about 61% is tied up by you two. The other 7 share the remaining 40% at best (probably less). There is no reason at all to put yourself in danger here, you gain nothing by doing so (other than a better chance of actually knocking out the short stack). The only thing you get is a possible bad beat story about missing the final 8 payout when your pocket rockets got cracked. It might be hard to lay down, but it's a good idea to lay down AA here.

[LeeDanger]

I understand the heads up fold but why is everyone saying to fold in the second situation? You and the chip leader can both call and really weaken the short stacks opportunity to win. Remember the short stack has to win this hand otherwise the tourney is over. I'd say call here get the tourney over.

[cdddc75]

LeeDanger said:

I understand the heads up fold but why is everyone saying to fold in the second situation? You and the chip leader can both call and really weaken the short stacks opportunity to win. Remember the short stack has to win this hand otherwise the tourney is over. I'd say call here get the tourney over.

From the original post:

Foulky said:

I'll lay out a situation: a shortstack on the button moves in, the chip lead on the SB then moves all-in over the top and you are in the BB with AA.

(bold added for emphasis)If the chip leader had just called the short stack's all-in, then of course you call to have another chance to eliminate the short stack. The problem in the original scenario is that you put yourself at risk of elimination by calling, since the chip leader is all-in. No reason to do that in a supersatellite.

[AllenRay4]

that big-stack obviousley doesn't know how to play the short stack all-in poker. in a situation like this you want 2 or 3 others callin the all-in so there is a better chance of eliminating him. this would not be the case in a cash tourney but if its for a satelite and 1-8 get the same, knock out the short stack! good fold though...the other day i couldnt lay down kings in a similar situation (top 7 advance on....10 left, i was in 2nd)....and even though he flipped over QQ, i lost to the chip leader's 4 card flush and was eliminated