Posted 13 December 2004 - 10:29 PM
If I miss, I fold...kinda like the "no set, no bet" rule. I'm a rather tight player outside of tournament play, so if I don't get an A, K, or a flush draw i'm out. If the flop is Qh7d3s, your AKo only has 6 good outs. So, your a 3-1 dog against any QJ, and a 7-1 dog against any AQ or KQ.Unless the pot is just gargantuous I will not take another one off, it's -EV. Yet you see people do it all day...those are the players you want to play against, as are the guys who chase a broadway no matter what. For fun, let's say you still have AsKd...but the flop is QcTs2h. Now you would think you have 10 good outs (Ad, Ac, Ah, Kc, Ks, Kh, Js, Jd, Jc, Jh). The only problem with this thinking, is that anyone holding QT takes out 6 of your outs, AQ and KQ take out 3 of your outs. So, depending on the amount of players in the pot, your outs could be as abundant as 10 or as little as 4. Also, anyone holding KJ or AJ takes out 4 of your outs. O.K. let's rationalize, BTW i'm just brainstorming, might get some good arguements and learn something :idea: ....Opponents possible hands:AQ=7 outsAJ=6 outsAT=7 outsKQ=7 outsKJ=6 outsKT=7 outsQJ=9 outsQT=4 outsAA=4 outsKK=7 outsQQ=4 outsTT=4 outs22=4 outsJJ=8 outsFor reasons unknown we will not count other pocket pairs or Qx, Tx, or 2x. On average you will have 6 good outs head-up, making you a 3-1 dog, and have to be getting 3-1 effective odds. Unlikely if your head-up, right? The more people in the pot, the less outs you have, making you a probable 5-1 dog, and must be getting 5-1 effective odds.This is why I don't chase with AK0 unless I have the proper odds, which, more times than not, is going to be pretty high. Now, I normally don't chase because my mind sais "probably not", this is only an attempt to figure out why my mind sais that.
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