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Tactical Error Or Playing To Win?


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#1 benhoug

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 08:05 AM

I was watching the 1993 WSOP Main Event on ESPN classic and a very interesting pot came up. It begs the question, was this play a tactical error, or was the playing playing for first and nothing else.

Here's the setup...

3-handed.
Jim Betchel -Button- over 1 million in chips
John Bonnetti - SB - 935K in chips
Glenn Cozen - BB - 95K in chips

1st place $1 Million
2nd place $440K
3rd place $220K

I'm pretty sure the blinds were 6k/12K w/ a 3K ante.

Betchel made it 35K, Bonnetti called and Cozen thought for a long time, before finally calling (after the antes he had only 70K left, so just calling the 35 seems like a terrible play to me). (132K in pot)

Flop comes K icon_suit_diamond.gif 10 icon_suit_spade.gif 6 icon_suit_spade.gif

Bonnetti checks, Cozen checks, Betchel bets 75K, Bonnetti immediately raises to 180K. Cozen folds, Betchel calls. (492K in pot)

Turn: J icon_suit_spade.gif -this card fills both the straight and flush.

Bonnetti immediately moves all in for approx. 725K. Betchel calls.

With the 3rd player (Cozen) left w/ only about 35K, and the difference in payouts being so large, what hand does Bonnetti have to have for this to be a good play? What hand does Betchel have to have for it to be a good call?

Discuss...

#2 mk

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 10:06 AM

I've watched that hand a bunch of times and I'm sure it still haunts Bonetti to this day. I honestly don't think Bonetti should make this play with anything less than a flush. Cozen was so pumped and rightfully so. lol.

#3 LPY2005

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 10:17 AM

Wow, crazy hand considering the size of the small stack and the payouts. In my opinion it would be a mistake for Bonnetti to push with anything but the nuts. He's pretty much got 2nd locked up if he survives this hand and a healthy chip stack to fight his way into first.

Betchels call would also be a mistake with anything less than the nuts. He doesn't have Bonnetti covered by very much and risks going out third after he's crippled.

The only push that would make sense would be if it came from Betchel, knowing that Bonnetti couldn't call with anything less than the nuts without fear of being eliminated.

In this case both should have played small pot poker until the small stack was eliminated and second place money was locked up. Cozen must have been peeing himself with excitement knowing that he could make an extra $220K from this hand.

The first or nothing mentality is a pretty stupid reason to throw away $220K back in '93. As long as I have a healthy stack heads up I throw away the second nuts here.

Some might even argue that in this situation that even folding the nuts in this situation is correct, because a set could beat an A high flush if the board pairs on the river, but that's pretty extreme.

What happened in the actual hand? Set vs. flush? The board paired and the redraw to the boat beat the flush?
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#4 benhoug

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 10:38 AM

QUOTE (LPY2005 @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2006, 10:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What happened in the actual hand? Set vs. flush? The board paired and the redraw to the boat beat the flush?

Bonnetti made the play w/ AK (I don't think he had a flush draw) - just top pair/top kicker. Betchel had bottom set and made a very tough call.

#5 macphec

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 10:46 AM

QUOTE (benhoug @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2006, 8:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
what hand does Bonnetti have to have for this to be a good play?

Discuss...



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#6 LPY2005

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 11:50 AM

QUOTE (benhoug @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2006, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Bonnetti made the play w/ AK (I don't think he had a flush draw) - just top pair/top kicker. Betchel had bottom set and made a very tough call.


Big mistake by Bonnetti and extremely tough call by Betchel. This is no place to get cute with TPTK. Although I have to say Bonnetti's move would have worked on me. With the small stack so close to going out I would have laid down bottom set here even if I was pretty confident I had the best hand.
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#7 benhoug

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 12:15 PM

QUOTE (LPY2005 @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2006, 11:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Big mistake by Bonnetti and extremely tough call by Betchel. This is no place to get cute with TPTK. Although I have to say Bonnetti's move would have worked on me. With the small stack so close to going out I would have laid down bottom set here even if I was pretty confident I had the best hand.

He HAD to be bluffing. There's no way any competent player would think TP/TK was good. He had to make that bet knowing that Betchel couldn't call w/ anything less than a straight - unfortunately for him, and fortunately for Cozen, he was wrong.

#8 tapeworm

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 12:18 PM

My answer was going to be that the caller needed a set of Kings or better(possibly set of 10-10). With the donk all-in overbet on the turn, and the C/R on the flop, it is hard to imagine that he has either a straight or a flush. A set is a possibility, so that is why I think a set of Kings is good. I added set of 10s only if you think it is unlikely that he would smooth-call PF with KK. Also, witha set you think he would C/R more on the flop with the draws out there, so I can possibly see how he made the call. Either way, tough call though, but I guess you can't let a guy run over you just because there is a third player.

This is a pretty interesting hand though with the third player so shortstacked. I would love to see the footage of both those guys faces. Yikes!!

#9 LPY2005

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 12:27 PM

QUOTE (benhoug @ Wednesday, April 19th, 2006, 1:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
He HAD to be bluffing. There's no way any competent player would think TP/TK was good. He had to make that bet knowing that Betchel couldn't call w/ anything less than a straight - unfortunately for him, and fortunately for Cozen, he was wrong.


Agreed, and that's probably the only reason Betchel called. He must have thought that if Bonnetti was strong that he would bet for value instead of trying to chase him off the hand. That's a big if though in this situation.

Just for the record I fold the straight even faster that bottom set if I'm Betchel. At least with the set you have have redraws if you are wrong.
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#10 gooch

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 01:52 PM

At that point in the tourney, and with small stack being so small, I think I would have waited for a better time to make a move.

This happened to me in a 30 person $30 live game once.

Down to 6 left and I am small stacked after a very bad 2 outer hits to take out 80% of my stack, very next hand I catch AA, go all in, get called and quaduple up to get me back into marginal shape, still pretty small though (about 8 BB left), well low and behold #2 stack takes out #5 moving me up, then #2 and #1 get in a pissing match and #1 takes out #2 (very close in chips) moving me up to 3 where I bow out at.

That move tripled my pay off

I've played a bunch of 50 person sng and have to say that when I do bow out it is usually from playing from the BB with a marginal hand like K6 or so and then getting top pair or even two pair and not being able to get away from it.

More than once I've been bubbled with KK and just feel like throwing it away to wait out one of the small stacks, I know it's crazy but in tourament poker is it not all about being the last one standing?

Those were both a monster push and a monster call with that much at stake, you know the short stack is just sitting there thinking he may have just played his most profitable hand ever, without even seeing the showdown
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#11 FullMontyM1

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Posted 19 April 2006 - 07:07 PM

Bonnetti needs AsQx to make this play.

I can completely understand Bechtel's call. Bonnetti's actions scream two-pair or TPTK!

More money has been lost on TPTK than any other hand in poker.

As for Cozen, that's a weird play. Maybe he smelled an action hand developing and figured a) I'm a huge dog to get anything -but- third, cool.gif I've got hand to triple up with if I hit the flop, c) if I don't hit the flop it's easy to get out of the way -and- I've put more money in the pot for them to fight over. Sometimes giving action generates action.

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