20 replies to this topic

[DanielSon]

Ok here's the situation...I just finished a SNG and wanted to know the following...

Situation:
You are in the final 4 of a 10 person SNG where the top 3 pay. Blinds are at 150/300 and you are on the button. SB has about 4K in chips, BB has about 7.5K in chips, you have 3K chips and UTG has about 300. You are dealt KK, UTG folds and you raise to 1200 and get called by the BB. Flop is 632 rainbow and BB bets the pot.

Question:

Do you fold and hope the player UTG goes out when he's forced all in, call, or push in?

Thanks

[Demonde]

What's the buy-in?

[ROGUE06]

Definetly gotta push, more than likely you have the best hand. Maybe the chipleader in BB called with junk and hit a pair or he has ace high. Regardless of what he has you have to push. If you are worried now about finishing in 4th, you should have never entered pot in first place since it looks like you hit your golden opportunity, but not entering the pot would be just dumb. Not to mention as much as you want to make the money, you're always trying to win it and there is a huge jump in the money when you hit 1st.

[Wandigo]

Unless you think he tripped up, push. Play for first.

[DanielSon]

I pushed all in, guy turned over 86 and caught an 8 on the turn...It's just I started thinking this wasn't the right thing to do, because I have busted out in 4th in a LOT of sng's lately becuase of hands like this and it's really been affecting my bottom line. So wasn't sure if I was approaching it wrong or just getting terribly unlucky multiple times.

[bringsme]

What's the buy-in?

was about to ask the same question. But short-handed, I think I'm running with it. Maybe AA, possibly 77-QQ, a set (bad news), two pair isn't so bad, and if he has 45 your almost drawing dead. But even at the $109 sng on party, people would make that play with A6 SOOOTED It's a situational game, and you've played with him for at least 45 minutes now, you should have at least a basic idea of how he plays, and that should narrow the range of hands down. I don't think he would be betting the nuts, but if he's thinks u have a big pocket pair and he's a smart player he definately would. I'd go all in, put him back on the defensive. I think most of the time you'll end up doubling up

[gkunit20]

If you fold, stop playing poker.

[Jdr999]

After the flop, I don't see how you can fold this. Just bad luck. However, if an ace hit the flop, I would fold.

[GoCryWolfe]

With only 9 BB's left, I don't see why you don't push preflop. That is the best option.

[Eclypse]

With only 9 BB's left, I don't see why you don't push preflop. That is the best option.

I agree.

[reedmcneal]

This is a no brainer. 80-90% of the time you are dominating. Not to mention if you win this pot you are chip leader and most likely will finish in the top 2. I wouldn't think 2 seconds about it.

A preflop push can be done, but I don't have a real problem with how it was played.

[XX44466XX]

Stallone went Over The Top-so should you. Or go play checkers.

[eYank]

With only 9 BB's left, I don't see why you don't push preflop. That is the best option.

yeah u dont have a huge amount and if one of the big stacks calls u and u double up you are in great position and if everyone fold, u win the blinds

[copernicus]

Definetly gotta push, more than likely you have the best hand. Maybe the chipleader in BB called with junk and hit a pair or he has ace high. Regardless of what he has you have to push. If you are worried now about finishing in 4th, you should have never entered pot in first place since it looks like you hit your golden opportunity, but not entering the pot would be just dumb. Not to mention as much as you want to make the money, you're always trying to win it and there is a huge jump in the money when you hit 1st.

absolutely wrong. In a SnG the increase in prize money is not huge, it is quite shallow and favors playing to make into the money first, then try to move up.

This hand was played poorly from the start. As soon as UTG folds, you play the hand as cheaply as possible and dont risk going out on the bubble. If you flop well you can challenge the big stack.

By committing so many chips preflop you put yourself in an awkward position.

The math is not very difficult:

Before the hand started you essentially have 3rd place locked up, you have about a 20% chance of winning first, and about a 33% chance of taking second.

Your EV for folding is .2*.5 + .33 * .3 + .47* .2 = about 29% of the prize pool. (verified by SnG Power Tools at 28.8%)

With the small stack folding KK is 70% to win against two random hands. Lets say you are assured of doubing up when you do win (an overstatement)

Your EV is now .3 * $0 + .7 * (.4 * .5 + .4 *.3 + .2 * .2) = 25% of the prize pool.

Folding KK here is better than a 70% chance of doubling up!

Assume that some intermediate strategy is going to improve on the 25%. Lets say that intermediate strategy is the one taken.

KK with that flop vs 1 random hand is 80% to win, and you will essentially double up if you do, youre out if you dont. Youre EV is just back up to the 29% you could have had if you folded KK. Unfortunately, because of the way it was played, folding after committing 1200 chips puts you in worse shape than you started in.

What kind of shape? Folding you are about .12*.5 + .25 *.3 + .6 .2 (if youre smart enough not to get involved again. Thats .26 of the prize pool. Folding at this point is only 3% of the prize pool worse than playing.

Thinking of it without the math, if you were on the bubble of a satellite with the same prize for all positions would you play AA with the small stack out of the hand? If you would you are certifiable.

A SnG on the bubble is much closer to a satellite payout than it is to a MTT payout, where it does pay to go aggressively go after the top prizes.

If you dont understand any of this, you need to buy SnG Power Tools before you play any more SnGs.

I pushed all in, guy turned over 86 and caught an 8 on the turn...It's just I started thinking this wasn't the right thing to do, because I have busted out in 4th in a LOT of sng's lately becuase of hands like this and it's really been affecting my bottom line. So wasn't sure if I was approaching it wrong or just getting terribly unlucky multiple times.

You clearly approached it wrong in this case.

With only 9 BB's left, I don't see why you don't push preflop. That is the best option.

Pushing is .8% of the prize pool worse than folding.

[FullMontyM1]

Word up Copernicus.

Monty

[cubbybri]

I would say, if you are going to play it, you need to push.

As always, Copernicus has the numbers and says the fold is right.

So folding proper play normal raise is no good.

[Actuary]

Copernicus:

you take the fun out!
I'm pushing everytime preflop


also...

In the 50/30/20 Payout structure
Playing one and getting first is more profit and much better ROI than getting 3rd 2 times and 2nd 1 time!

Tell me where I'm wrong

[copernicus]

Copernicus:

you take the fun out!
I'm pushing everytime preflop
also...

In the 50/30/20 Payout structure
Playing one and getting first is more profit and much better ROI than getting 3rd 2 times and 2nd 1 time!

Tell me where I'm wrong

For -.8% if you like pushing, go ahead and push.

On your question, if you play 3 sngs, and hit first once and bubble twice youve collected 50% of one prize pool. If you hit 3rd twice and 2d once youve collected 70% of one prize pool, so after your buy in and vig youre better off with the 2d and two 3rds.

If your question is, is it better to play 1 SnG and win 50% of the prize pool or play 3 SnGs and hit 70% of the prize pool, in both situations youve collected a net of 40% of the prize pool (if its a ten handed sng) less vigorish, so obviusly your ROI is better playing and winning once.

So what? If you can pick and choose which ones youre going to win, thats fine. Most of us have to play the same number of SnGs to play and then make a decision at bubble time how to maximize ROI!

[Actuary]

well, i only play the ones I win.



I used to not consider the differnce between 2nd and 1st as much; but now playing more of these, it really adds up to stay focused all the way thru!.

[copernicus]

well, i only play the ones I win.



I used to not consider the differnce between 2nd and 1st as much; but now playing more of these, it really adds up to stay focused all the way thru!.

No argument there. Ekeing out a few tenths of a percent when you win pays for a lot of buyins. The question is what you do when you are focused, and generally small +EV situations for a large number of chips is not the way to eke them out with an SnG payout structure.

What's the buy-in?

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