Posted 17 April 2006 - 09:48 PM
Here's my read of the hands. I'm guessing the Q up is raising with a pair, trying to isolate against low hands hoping they miss. A 7 calling out of poistion with a 4 behind them sure sounds like he's got A-2 under there and is trying to trap any other low draws out there who feel like getting frisky. The 9 calling against a Q up raiser has to be a straight draw, but I think it's more likely (given their play on 4th street) that they have a 2-flush, 2-straight pair going. I just can't imagine what other range of hands they would just call with here. After fourth street, my worst-case scenario read is like this:Kc Qs Qc Ac2s As 7c TcTs 9h 9s 9c8c 5s 4c 2cI think you'll learn a few things by calling here. First off, I really don't think you have to worry about Player #2 all that much, the only thing a 10 could improve is if he actually had a middle-straight draw like 9-8-7, but considering I'm putting player 3 on trip 9s, I don't see that, I see him folding. The unfortunate part for you is that you're out of poistion here, and Player 1's play determines a lot here. If Player 1 calls or raises, you have to figure they have a big high hand already, because betting on two 9s has to be setting off some alarms. The great thing about Stud 8 is player 3 can just as easily see that no one else has really improved much, and they might be trying to take the bull by the horns and isolate against you, the most viable low draw (killing your EV) with just a pair of 9s and 8-7 in the hole. I think this is much more likely the scenario rather than trip 9s. Assuming this is Player 1's read, he'd either be in there raising or calling. If this is the situation, with 9 small bets in front of you and the best (and scariest) low draw, I'd try to trap Player 1 for as many bets as I can get, you have the best EV in the hand so why not try and make it a big one instead of a small one. Who knows, maybe you'll hit a cash card like a 3 of clubs on 5th street and scoop it right there. Raising only encourages Player 1 not to get stubborn with his big pair. Folding seems worthless. A lot of people seem to think this is a low-only hand, but you've got a lot of options at making a flush or low straight and the last time I checked, you're playing for both pots. The one caveat: This is in a $1500/$3000 game with people who bet more per hand than I've got in my bank account. Depending on the type of player Player 1 is, his play might be dictated by that. He could easily toss away a big pair there, I would definitely consider it. In short: You have EV, you've got more ways to improve than you do to lose even if everyone is killing your flush cards: Call and win a big one.