Tricky River Situation

[abruptor 0]

A rather tight limit table (6 players). All fold to the guy in the cut-off (unknown player to you) who raises.Button and SB folds. You are holding Qc-Tc in the BB and decide to see the flop for one more bet. The flop is Qd-Td-6h. You: check Fi: bet YOu:raise Fi:call Turn: Qs You:check Fi:bet You:raise Fi:raise You:cap Fi:call River: Kh Which move has the best EV here?1. Bet out (and call a raise)2. Bet out and re-raise 3. Check-raise 4. Check-call

[amarillotg 0]

bet/call.but what the hell do i know. i would have led the turn.

[Zach6668 513]

Bet out and reraise.Lead the turn as well.You are scared of KK and KQ. Thos are the only hands that beat you. Pump the pot!Also, this is a blind battle, essentially. He could easily be raising light here.- Zach

[LongLiveYorke 38]

As much fun as it is to check raise someone twice in one hand, I would just lead the turn and lead/raise the river. I agree with Zach (as usual).

[Zach6668 513]

Having the turned checked through is a disaster. Just more on why we should bet the turn, unless you know that 100% of the time, this villain will bet when checked to.- Zach

[screech 0]

Yeah, the turn check is pretty terrible. Bet and hope to get raised. You could have also taken that aproach on the flop.The river is a straightforward combinations problem. Assuming your opponent is sensible, there are only a few hands he can hold. AQ, KQ, TT, 66, Qx, and another QT. He may also have AA/KK of course, but they have to be discounted. Maybe count AA as 2 combos and KK as 1 (instead of 6 and 3, respectively).AA - 2 combosTT - 3 combos66 - 3 combosAQ - 4 combosQx - 6 combosTotal ahead - 18 combosKK - 1 comboKQ - 4 combosTotal behind - 5 combosIf you bet, and get raised, you can't really 3-bet since he will always call with AA, and probably with AQ/Qx, and sometimes with 66/TT too. You aren't ahead when a good player raises the necessary 2/3's of the time to risk a 3-bet. If he's a donkey who only plays his own cards, then you can go ahead and 3-bet. Edit: This isn't entirely correct. If you bet and are raised by a decent player, you are probably ahead often enough to 3-bet. It is close to the 2/3's thing though, and you probably shouldn't 3-bet if you're opponent is a good player.If you check, he will bet everything except for AA. You are ahead the necessary 2/3's of the time, and can check/raise for value. You have to just call a 3-bet though, since his 3-betting range is even smaller then his raising range.So it's close. Against a bad player, I would definetly bet/3-bet. Against a better player, a check/raise/call is the best option.

[BuffDan 0]

If you check, he will bet everything except for AA. You are ahead the necessary 2/3's of the time, and can check/raise for value. You have to just call a 3-bet though, since his 3-betting range is even smaller then his raising range.

So at risk of asking a stupid question, why does 2/3 come into play, ie why must we be ahead 2/3 of the time to raise, as this seems by your description to be a general concept?

[screech 0]

So at risk of asking a stupid question, why does 2/3 come into play, ie why must we be ahead 2/3 of the time to raise, as this seems by your description to be a general concept?

When you raise the river, you are putting 2 bets at risk to win 1. The 2/3 figure is not entirely accurate though, since you don't always lose when you call a 3-bet.In that light, I think this river should be bet/3-bet against just about everyone.

[greatwhite 0]

Against an unknown I'm leading the turn.