27 replies to this topic

[Scott3705]

Not a whole lot of main villain. I saw him get out of line once with a gutshot draw draw but that's it. hasn't shown down a whole lot.

2/4online

Mp2 (main villain) limps, MP3 limps, I raise in CO with K q
BB calls, and two limpers call

FLOP ($17)

Q J 7 (rainbow)

BB checks, Villain bets, MP3 calls, I raise, BB folds Villain 3 bets, MP3 folds, I????

Turn:

9

Villain bets, I????

[Actuary]

get to sd cheaply after you are HU on the flop.

[Scott3705]

get to sd cheaply after you are HU on the flop.

What the hell am I beating tho?

[Actuary]

well...

if I'm counting right, you are getting 14:1 on the flop call..that's a no brainer.

On the turn, you picked up a gutshot.

On the river you'll be getting 10.5 : 1... with TP2K. I'd say you still win 10% of the time.

[LongLiveYorke]

I agree with Actuary. Show it down (cheaply)!

[Zach6668]

I agree with Actuary. Show it down (cheaply)!

[screech]

What the hell am I beating tho?

QT, Q8, 98, T9.

Like Actuary said, you picked up a gutter on the turn, so your not folding. And folding the river in a pot this big against a player capable of getting out of line would be horrendous.

[ICrushHomeGames]

C/c down. You can't predict that 9 on the turn.

[The Nuts]

I agree with the rest. C/C to showdown.

[Shimmering Wang]

What the hell am I beating tho?

You're beating draws, and worse queens, but that's not even the point. Folding is a big mistake because you're rarely going to improve to a winner less than 1/15.5 (or whatever) times here. IF there's even a single diamond, folding becomes even worse.

When your myriad outs are taken in conjunction with the fact that you could have the best hand already, it's a pretty easy peel.

Picking up the gutter means you're showing down, almost automatically.

Wang

EDIT: Whoops. Miscalculated the number of bets in the pot on the flop. Fixed it.

[TB17]

Does anyone like a cap on the flop and then a check on the turn if he checks behind us when we see the gutshot? After the 3 bet we are sure to be behind, but then if we cap it and he calls, he might check the turn and then we check behind and we can get to s/d for a SB cheaper.

If he leads out on the turn then C/C, but in position I like a cap on the flop. Discuss?

[Shimmering Wang]

Does anyone like a cap on the flop and then a check on the turn if he checks behind us when we see the gutshot? After the 3 bet we are sure to be behind, but then if we cap it and he calls, he might check the turn and then we check behind and we can get to s/d for a SB cheaper.

If he leads out on the turn then C/C, but in position I like a cap on the flop. Discuss?

No, I'm pretty sure capping the flop is bad. Just because we likely have the odds to see a turn doesn't mean putting in extra bets on the flop is +EV. It MIGHT slow him down a little, but our "draw" on the flop isn't strong enough for a cap to be okay. We're simply not likely to improve on the turn (even to a gutshot draw or flush draw, depending on the suit of the flop). We're in rough shape against the hands most players 3-bet here, and we don't want to put in extra bets H/U.

Cheers,

Wang

[TB17]

We aren't capping because we are strong enough, it's more like a bluff to get a free turn card. It's not as bad because there's no flush draw out there so we aren't giving a free card to the flush draw.

The main thing we're trying to do is get to the river as cheap as possible. If our villain is the kind of person who constantly checks OOP after a raise (most people are), then I think it's ok.

[Shimmering Wang]

We aren't capping because we are strong enough, it's more like a bluff to get a free turn card. It's not as bad because there's no flush draw out there so we aren't giving a free card to the flush draw.

The main thing we're trying to do is get to the river as cheap as possible. If our villain is the kind of person who constantly checks OOP after a raise (most people are), then I think it's ok.

Well, I think we're kind of confusing the issue, here. When we put a bet in, there is only one concern (longterm "image issues" nonwithstanding):

Is the bet +EV? Or, specifically here, "when I cap, will I make more money against his hand/range than if I just call?"

I still think it's a pretty easy "hell no."

Here's a few reasons why I think so:

1) Certain turns may accomplish the task of "earning" us a free card, regardless. If a jack, seven, or Ace comes off, he might check to us anyway, and we can check it right back. Most "scare cards" give us additional outs, anyway. Double fun good! Probably not very likely, but there's no reason to bloat the pot unneccessarily. Heck, he might even check a T because he's putting us on AK, like all morons do.

2) His 3-bet screams extreme strength. The type of player that slows down with a strong hand to a cap is rarely the same player who 3-bets when we raise, especially at this level. We might be drawing really slim, and just donking money away unneccessarily. There are very few turn cards that help us, or give us a "free card" worth taking. Don't let your judgment become colored because we just so happened to pick up a gut/shot on the turn.

3) If he leads the turn, we have no choice but slam our heads against a wall.

4) By your logic, it becomes correct to raise/cap almost ANY flop in position if we think there's a very good chance we're behind, but we're going to have to see a river anyway. Raising with middle-pair and an overcard is often a good idea (Sklansky and I agree here), but I imagine Sklansky would think capping when we're behind almost all the time and have no real draw is silly


Sorry, I'm a little drunk, so this might be a tad diiiisjointed


Wang

[Actuary]

I wish I was that smart sober.

I agree, cap bad.
Free card unlikely.
When free card come, it may have come anyway.

ps. I add nothing extra.

[Zach6668]

I wish I was that smart sober.

I agree, cap bad.
Free card unlikely.
When free card come, it may have come anyway.

ps. I add nothing extra.

Please change your avatar.

[The Nuts]

Change yours too Zach. Penguins suck.

[Zach6668]

Change yours too Zach. Penguins suck.

Leave and never come back.

[Shimmering Wang]

I wish I was that smart sober.

I agree, cap bad.
Free card unlikely.
When free card come, it may have come anyway.

ps. I add nothing extra.

1) Nothing I say is smart, ever.

2) I'm actually a wee bit smarter drunk. Natural environment, and all

3) I miss you, Actuary. How you doing? Send me a PM, gimme a rundown on your life. Last I saw, you were quitting your job?

4) Now I'm mega-wasted, and I rule


Wang

[The Nuts]

Statistically, the Penguins really do suck. I'm not saying that just because I like another team.

Though Sidney Crosby is a damn good player.