21 replies to this topic

[respec]

This was from Empire, where the games have been quite tough since the split. Its my first orbit at the table and I have no read on Villian here.


Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 7 , 7 .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, CO raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8 , 5 , 6 (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

[pokerplayer24]

I 3-bet the flop. He has overs pretty often.

[bobbywithani]

If the tables are tough don't limp in pre-flop. Raise or fold.

[Zach6668]

If the tables are tough, find a new table.

FYP

[bobbywithani]

FYP

Ha of course, but sometimes you are forced, say when clearing a PSO bonuse, to play at sites that are full of weak-tight types, so it can be important to realize that at tables like this a hand like 77 loses value, because your implied set odds go down a great deal etc..

[respec]

I would never play tough tables if I had a choice but the current reload at Empire is too good not to take advantage of. Unfortunately just about the only people who still play there seem to be weak-tight at best and TAG at worst.

[Actuary]

as played, I don't fold river

[pokerplayer24]

as played, I don't fold river

Wow yea that is pretty awful.

Also to talk about a few things I didnt say originally.

Raise preflop, limping is kind of meh.

Flop bet-3bet, he raises with overs a ton here being in position.

Turn, bet. If raised I fold the river UI.

As played folding the river is a massively -ev move. I'd think you're ahead anywhere from 25-30% of the time min.

[respec]

As played folding the river is a massively -ev move. I'd think you're ahead anywhere from 25-30% of the time min.

OK. This is why I posted the hand. Can you tell me what he has there 25-30% of the time that I can beat? He has absolutely zero reason to bet a hand like AQ/AJ there.

The fact that there are so few hands he is likely to have that I can beat is also the reason I didn't lead the turn. Had it not been an A or a K I most likely would have.

[Zach6668]

OK. This is why I posted the hand. Can you tell me what he has there 25-30% of the time that I can beat? He has absolutely zero reason to bet a hand like AQ/AJ there.

The fact that there are so few hands he is likely to have that I can beat is also the reason I didn't lead the turn. Had it not been an A or a K I most likely would have.

The thing is, people make stupid plays in poker all of the time. This could very easily be someing like AQs, or AJ. I think the random donk factor accounts for a lot, unless we have a read that he is an exceptionally strong player.

[respec]

I honestly don't think people bet hands like AQ or AJ there "all the time". Some do, most don't in my experience, and they shouldn't.

Lets also not forget that the majority of the time he doesn't even have a hand like AQ or AJ there. So we've got two relatively low probabilities that BOTH must be present in the particular hand for me to be winning, namely that he have a hand that I can beat AND that he bets it on the river. Even if I concede that an unknown player on Empire will bet A-high or a small pocket pair there more often than 1 in 9 times that still doesn't make it a call. Not even close in fact.

For instance, if we assume that on the river I'm ahead 25% of the time (to use pokerplayer24's number) and that he'll bet a hand I'm beating 25% of the time (far greater than 1 in 9), then I need 15:1 pot odds just to break even. I happen to think both these assumtions are on the optimistic side but the point is just the same.

Heading into the turn I'm pretty much hoping he has AK, and then the K falls. After I miss my draw I could go on hoping some more that he not only has some different hand, like AQ or 44, but that he's willing to raise it and bet it on both big streets after I led the flop, or I can tell myself that a typical player would simply not play (or have) a hand like that often enough to make a river call profitable.

Please feel free to disagree but FWIW I still like the laydown. I'd estimate I have the best hand about 1 in 20 times on that river if I'm being generous.

[Actuary]

respec:

I think the general thought among those thinking the river is a call (I think it's close, not atrocious) is due to the somewhat passive way the flop and turn are played. Had you 3-bet the flop and lead the turn your river decision is easier.

Once you check the turn the villan will bet any hand. (unless you read him as very passive. That's why we can set up c/r's with as little as TPTK because they will bet)
You say he has no reason to bet the river; but he may have to in order to win.

You're not saying if the pot was 14 BB's you'd fold, are you?

I'm not one to bet/raise for info; however, you are likely ahead on the flop so 3-betting is for value. Given you are calling a turn bet, I think bet/calling is better. If he raises, c/f river. If he just calls turn bet, I c/c river. If villain is particularly aggressive, just c/c down, so as to not get outplayed.

that's my thoughts.

[aim786]

I honestly don't think people bet hands like AQ or AJ there "all the time". Some do, most don't in my experience, and they shouldn't.

Lets also not forget that the majority of the time he doesn't even have a hand like AQ or AJ there. So we've got two relatively low probabilities that BOTH must be present in the particular hand for me to be winning, namely that he have a hand that I can beat AND that he bets it on the river. Even if I concede that an unknown player on Empire will bet A-high or a small pocket pair there more often than 1 in 9 times that still doesn't make it a call. Not even close in fact.

For instance, if we assume that on the river I'm ahead 25% of the time (to use pokerplayer24's number) and that he'll bet a hand I'm beating 25% of the time (far greater than 1 in 9), then I need 15:1 pot odds just to break even. I happen to think both these assumtions are on the optimistic side but the point is just the same.

Heading into the turn I'm pretty much hoping he has AK, and then the K falls. After I miss my draw I could go on hoping some more that he not only has some different hand, like AQ or 33, but that he's willing to raise it and bet it on both big streets after I led the flop, or I can tell myself that a typical player would simply not play (or have) a hand like that often enough to make a river call profitable.

Please feel free to disagree but FWIW I still like the laydown. I'd estimate I have the best hand about 1 in 20 times on that river if I'm being generous.

respec,
I used to think this way a few months ago, however you may be surprised how often you run into an unimproved A-high here. Others have already mentioned that calling is better than folding because of how passively you played the hand. You said that most people don't bet A high here and that they should'nt, and you are correct. If I had A high here, I'd definitely check behind here.

But, in these type of games, you must realize that most of the players are aggressive overplayers. If you show weakness, they will attack attack attack. Sure he could have an overpair, but he could very likely have a naked A.

[psujohn]

But, in these type of games, you must realize that most of the players are aggressive overplayers. If you show weakness, they will attack attack attack. Sure he could have an overpair, but he could very likely have a naked A.

The majority of .5/1 players on every site I've played are passive not aggressive.

I most likely play it like OP but I think I'm pretty much convinced that 3-betting the flop is necessary. If we 3-bet the flop and get called then bet/call the turn. If the flop is capped I'm check/calling the turn and folding the river UI.

Having a read would help tremendously - against an agg player it could easily be AQ, against a passive player it's almost certainly a bigger pair.

[Briguy]

Meh. I think calling the river is break-even, given the pot size. Hero will be good 1 in 8 times against certain players (LAAs and some TAAs who like to bluff with A-high when shown weakness), but certainly not against many mice or calling stations (they will usually let the river check through with A-high). I don't like three-betting the flop or bet-calling the turn, because of the decent draw. It just seems like a spew to throw an extra big bet in the pot on the flop or turn when your opponent is showing strength, and you have odds to draw out.

If the opponent has taken shots with unimproved hands before, I might look him up on the river, but probably not if he plays standard.

Edit to add: Actually, 3-betting the flop isn't too bad, because of the draw + BS factor + two streets to come.

[respec]

Thanks for the replies, I appreciate it.

I thought this was a fairly run of the mill hand but apparently there's more to it than I realized. After the first couple of "call the river" replies I decided to see if I was crazy and I posted the hand on another (extremely well known) strategy site and a funny thing happened. I got a lot of responses, more than here I believe, and they ALL said the river was a fold, every single one of them! Also, I got one or two posters who suggested I 3 bet the flop and that notion was quickly shot down as "spewy".

I'm not claiming anyone is obviously right or wrong here, I just think it is very interesting that different online communities made up of individuals can see the same hand so differently. I basically learned how to play on the other forum so its not too surprising that I'm still leaning towards the way I ended up playing it, but its interesting nonetheless IMO.

If anyone's interested in the other thread I believe the title is "77 river decision" and as of this post its on the first page of the appropriate forum which bears the same name as this forum. I won't give them free advertising so you'll have to figure it out.

[Love4hockey]

I three bet the flop. With the way you played it I think you have to call the river. The flop 3 bet would tell you alot.

****replies****

Seens about right.

[bobbywithani]

Two plus two is great, but sometimes they can be a little weak-tight IMO. I think you have to call the river down.

[Abbaddabba]

Given how you played preflop, you should be check/raising the flop.

If he 3bets, then you can check/call the turn and probably check/fold the river unimproved.

[Actuary]

Given how you played preflop, you should be check/raising the flop.

If he 3bets, then you can check/call the turn and probably check/fold the river unimproved.

nh.
I always forget about the c/r on the flop.
Not saying I agree..I'm uncomittal on thsi hand..but a new line, looks good.