gobears 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Writer says that he's been right over 75% of the time over the past six years (x indicates that you just shouldn't bet the same amount on each of the five bets)White Sox(4x): Under 92 winsDiamondbacks(x): Under 73 winsDevilrays(4x): Over 68 winsBrewers(2x): Over 81 winsTwins(2x): Over 83 winsI like the WSox, Rays and Brewer Bets myself - I'd pass on the snakes and twins. Link to post Share on other sites
Pete Rose 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 If I were a bettin' man, I'd definitely put some money on the Brewers. Link to post Share on other sites
jeff_536 3 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Devil Rays over 68 wins? in the same division as the yanks, red sox, Jays and Orioles? I'll take the under. Link to post Share on other sites
KowboyKoop 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Devil Rays over 68 wins? in the same division as the yanks, red sox, Jays and Orioles? I'll take the under.Well...they won 67 games last year. The Yanks aren't any better (only older), the BoSox aren't better (ton of question marks), the BlueJays MIGHT be be better...and the Orioles are probably worse. Also...the D-Rays are young and improving...............don't think ONE more win is out of the question. Look at the teams...not just the names of the teams. Link to post Share on other sites
jeff_536 3 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Well...they won 67 games last year. The Yanks aren't any better (only older), the BoSox aren't better (ton of question marks), the BlueJays MIGHT be be better...and the Orioles are probably worse. Also...the D-Rays are young and improving...............don't think ONE more win is out of the question. Look at the teams...not just the names of the teams.I'll still take the under...their pitching is either young/bad...they have no 3B...i think they're gonna lose a lot of games 7-6 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 KC over/under 70 wins?UNDER If I were a bettin' man, I'd definitely put some money on the Brewers.me too. and i'll take the under on the Dbacks any day Link to post Share on other sites
MDXS 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Well...they won 67 games last year. The Yanks aren't any better (only older), the BoSox are better (but over performed last year), the BlueJays MIGHT be be better...and the Orioles are probably worse. Also...the D-Rays are young and improving...............don't think ONE more win is out of the question. Look at the teams...not just the names of the teams.FYP. I agree...the Devil Rays should win 68 or more. Besides, it's not as if all their game are in the division. Link to post Share on other sites
KowboyKoop 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 I'll still take the under...their pitching is either young/bad...they have no 3B...i think they're gonna lose a lot of games 7-6LOL.....it appears that you don't really have a clue. Their entire team was very young last year...and they won 67....and this year their division is likely a little weaker....and all their young players just got one year better....and you don't think they will win ONE more game than last year...lol....whatever. Yeah..of course they have their problems...but they have a ton of promising talent...and some of that is going to pan out and they will be better. I'm not saying they are a contender...but I think 74-77 wins is realistic...I think the Orioles are the bottom-dweller in that division this year. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafs 142 Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 I think the Orioles are the bottom-dweller in that division this year.But they've lost Sidney Ponson and Raffy Palmeiro. That has to count for something. Lotsa cancer removed from that clubhouse. Link to post Share on other sites
kers2 0 Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 KowboyKoop: Defender of the terrible baseball teams Link to post Share on other sites
KowboyKoop 0 Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 KowboyKoop: Defender of the terrible baseball teamsI am not defending them..I don't think they will be a good team. I just think it's pretty crazy for someone to think that a 67 win team last year who is full of young talent that just got one year more experienced and better and is sporting a highly-regarded rookie in Delmon Young.....I think it is pretty hard to imagine that someone thinks they will win less games than last year with ALLLLL that improvement over last year.....I don't think 73 or so wins is unrealistic for the D-Rays.... Link to post Share on other sites
Thriceknurd 0 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 KowboyKoop: Defender of keeping it real.Good points made on the Devil Rays. I tend to agree that it's more likely the Rays finish with 70+ wins this season. Remember though, the Blue Jays had one heck of an offseason. They are the most improved team in that Division. Another thing to focus on is that the Rays I believe have had only 1 season with 70 wins or more. It seems that every season they are crapped on by the Yanks and Sox with the unbalanced schedules. Orioles finish at the bottom though....What are your thoughts on the Angels? Alot of ESPN writers are picking the A's to win the AL West this year. And well, what ESPN says, goes. .. . . sw.. . . . Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 The White Sox have fewer question marks than any team in baseball. I would not be surprised if they win 100 games. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 The White Sox have fewer question marks than any team in baseball. I would not be surprised if they win 100 games.I believe their bullpen, particularly their closer, is a big question mark. Dustin Hermanson has had back problems and Bobby Jenks is a nutbar. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 I believe their bullpen, particularly their closer, is a big question mark. Dustin Hermanson has had back problems and Bobby Jenks is a nutbar. It's true that Jenks is a question mark, but Cotts and Politte are both studs who are capable of closing. And Brandon McCarthy coming out of the bullpen is ridiculous. Even though he's really young, he could be a #2 or #3 starter on most teams.p.s. where ya been, digi? haven't seen you around much. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 p.s. where ya been, digi? haven't seen you around much.Changing diapers! Link to post Share on other sites
keith crime 8 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 Where would you guy set the over under on Andruw Jones homers this year? Link to post Share on other sites
Hobbes 1 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 Where would you guy set the over under on Andruw Jones homers this year?35 Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted April 3, 2006 Author Share Posted April 3, 2006 The White Sox have fewer question marks than any team in baseball. I would not be surprised if they win 100 games.They have a solid team but they should have lost eight more games last year based upon the Pythagoerean theory. They played well but also got lucky last year.Also, past world series champs lost about 8 games more the following year (not including the 97' Marlins due to their unique situation). That would put the WSox at 92 or 93 games. This is similar to the Angels who won in 2003 had their win line set back 8 games and then failed to meet their win target.On the other hand, they are 1-0 Link to post Share on other sites
Hobbes 1 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 They have a solid team but they should have lost eight more games last year based upon the Pythagoerean theory. They played well but also got lucky last year.Also, past world series champs lost about 8 games more the following year (not including the 97' Marlins due to their unique situation). That would put the WSox at 92 or 93 games. This is similar to the Angels who won in 2003 had their win line set back 8 games and then failed to meet their win target.On the other hand, they are 1-0On pace to go 162-0. There is some discussion that good defense and a good bullpen can explain a portion of their good luck relative to their pythagorean record, but all things being equal you would expect them to come down a little. Thome could help offset that though. Link to post Share on other sites
MDXS 0 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 On pace to go 162-0. There is some discussion that good defense and a good bullpen can explain a portion of their good luck relative to their pythagorean record, but all things being equal you would expect them to come down a little. Thome could help offset that though.Speaking of coming back to earth after outperforming a pythagorean record, what happens to the Diamondbacks? Not every year a team outperforms by 13 games. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 On pace to go 162-0. There is some discussion that good defense and a good bullpen can explain a portion of their good luck relative to their pythagorean record, but all things being equal you would expect them to come down a little. Thome could help offset that though. Don't forget the coming out party Contreras had in the second half after changing his arm angle. He was sub-par in the first half and El Duque was sub-par in the second. Hopefully Vasquez will be an improvement over Duque, and Contreras will maintain his late season form. I expect Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland to be rock solid. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 They have a solid team but they should have lost eight more games last year based upon the Pythagoerean theory. They played well but also got lucky last year.Also, past world series champs lost about 8 games more the following year (not including the 97' Marlins due to their unique situation). That would put the WSox at 92 or 93 games. This is similar to the Angels who won in 2003 had their win line set back 8 games and then failed to meet their win target.On the other hand, they are 1-0explain! now! Link to post Share on other sites
MDXS 0 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 explain! now!Basically, there's a correlation between the amount of runs a team scores and the runs they give up with their record at the end of a season.If a team scores 750 and gives up 750, you can expect them to be a .500 ball club. Without getting too detailed, the more positive the run differential, the more they'll win. The more negative, the more they'll lose.It isn't perfect of course, but it gives an indication of which teams benefitted most from luck and which teams got the shaft. Link to post Share on other sites
Hobbes 1 Posted April 3, 2006 Share Posted April 3, 2006 explain! now!RS = Runs scoredRA = Runs allowedG = Games playedRS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2) x G = Expected wins. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now