5 replies to this topic

[Abbaddabba]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with [Qh], [Kc].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) [Jd], [As], [Ah] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (6.66 BB) [2s] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises


I dont think many will have a problem with preflop.

He's 40/25/1 after 100 hands roughly.

Guy who bet the turn is 19/7/2.

[AlphaOmega]

What does raising the turn accomplish? The only fold equity you have is against a jack, but in that situation you can call profitably, so why risk raising?

Every other time you are getting ****ed because you're often going to be calling three-bets (because they will, and you'll have to call) and a lot of the time you will be drawing dead.

[Abbaddabba]

How often do you think someone has an ace?

The PFR virtually never does. I dont know how often the other guy does. Im guessing probably only half the time, roughly.

People will fold almost any non-ace pair, dont you think? I mean, unless it includes a flush draw.

[AlphaOmega]

I think some people (opponent dependant of course) are looking you up with a jack, but probably more often folding.

Nonetheless, we need two folds here on this turn (or have the best hand) more than 2/7.66 times, or 26% of the time. (We don't need to be good 3/8.66 times because I wouldn't bet the river. No better hand is folding, nor worse hand calling.)

19/7/2 are fairly solid stats. You basically have to hope that ~1/4 times he's donking a flush draw or straight draw, and I think that's highly optimistic thinking. You also have to worry about UTG+1 because he could be looking to c/r with trips (only god knows why, but it happens).

[Abbaddabba]

I think some people (opponent dependant of course) are looking you up with a jack, but probably more often folding.

Nonetheless, we need two folds here on this turn (or have the best hand) more than 2/7.66 times, or 26% of the time. (We don't need to be good 3/8.66 times because I wouldn't bet the river. No better hand is folding, nor worse hand calling.)

19/7/2 are fairly solid stats. You basically have to hope that ~1/4 times he's donking a flush draw or straight draw, and I think that's highly optimistic thinking. You also have to worry about UTG+1 because he could be looking to c/r with trips (only god knows why, but it happens).

What about something like 88, 99 or 1010? And lower pairs too, probably.

9 to 10 outs against 33 through 1010 and a J, basically.

I dont think he shows down a jack all that often... but if/when he does, im going to win about 20% of the time and get value when i make a straight, check behind otherwise.

[AlphaOmega]

What about something like 88, 99 or 1010? And lower pairs too, probably.

9 to 10 outs against 33 through 1010 and a J, basically.

I dont think he shows down a jack all that often... but if/when he does, im going to win about 20% of the time and get value when i make a straight, check behind otherwise.

Most of those are folding the flop, I would think.

And in the situations against determined pocket pairs I think calling is better because that will still, most of the time, leave us the option to bluff the river when we don't improve.

Anyway, it seems a lot closer than initially.