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Just how dangerous is that flop?


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#1 spacemonkey

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Posted 12 December 2004 - 10:21 PM

One of the skills that is hardest for new players to pick up in Holdem is reading the flop. Obviously pocket eights is probably good against a rainbow flop of 2-4-7 but not T-J-Q but it's a tricky business. So I thought up a little system that tries to quantify the probability that any given flop has hit an opponent. I haven't done too much analysis of how things work out and it's based purely on my experience. It's not perfect (for example it doesn't account for the reduced straight possibilities around aces and deuces) but I think it's at least taking the right factors into account.Terrence's danger flop index:Presence of certain cards: (apply for each card rank that appears)+3: (1 or more) Aces+2: (1 or more) Kings, Queens, Jacks+1: (1 or more) 8s, 9s, 10s+0: (1 or more) 7s, 6s, 5s, 4s, 3s, 2s,Flush possibility: (apply only one)+2: 2 cards of same suit+3: 3 cards of same suitStraight possibility: (apply only one)+1: 2 connected cards (ie. 8-9-K)+2: 3 cards to a 4 card straight (ie. 8-9-J)+3: 3 card straight (8-9-10)Pair penalty:-1: a pair on board=0: flop tripsExample flops:A:club:-K:club:-Q:club: = 3+2+2+3+3 = 134:diamond:-9:spade:-Q:diamond: = 0+1+2+2 = 52:spade:-7:spade:-T:heart: = 0+0+1 = 15:spade:-6:heart:-9:diamond: = 0+0+1+1 = 2T:diamond:-K:club:-A:diamond: = 1+2+3+2+1 = 98:heart:-8:spade:-9:heart: = 1+1+2+1-1 = 4A:spade:-A:heart:-A:club: = 0Approximate scale:0-3: Fairly safe.4-6: Moderate flop.7-9: Worrisome flop.10+: Have the nuts or be afraid, very afraid.Of course keep in mind the number of opponents you're facing and what you pre-flop reads are before you do anything stupid. This is only a measure of the probability that your opponent improved his hand not how attached he is to the hand. For example a pair on board reduces the probability that anyone has another card of that rank but if they do their hand is very strong. Also it's highly likely that with a 2-flush or 2-straight that someone has a draw which they may or may not play strongly.Anyway it's just something I came up with. I know there's a lot of ways to tweak it but I wanted to make sure that I could still do it in my head. I'd be happy to field any questions, comments or criticisms.

#2 theACE

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Posted 12 December 2004 - 11:17 PM

very interesting, it kind of follows the same philosophy of the high/ low system for counting cards in black jack. I can see merit in your system for sure spacemonkey, back when i was starting out i would have used that system i think.




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