41 replies to this topic

[thecamelot]

Villain is 34/10/2.13/126, I've seen him make a few silly plays, and seems fairly loose, but capping from UTG scares me a bit.

Preflop raise OK? It's semi-isolation, semi value...

Also, how does aggression factor relate to play (in general and in this hand)? I guess I should read up on that a bit too.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K , A .
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2 , 2 , 6 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero ... ?

[allinbluff35]

you say he's loose, but what hands is he showing down?

[Zach6668]

Preflop raise OK? It's semi-isolation, semi value...

PFR is fantastic. I 3-bet all day

[dimseven]

3bet's good.

Postflop I'm tempted to call him down. He's not super aggro, but he capped pf when it turned out to be HU (rest of the table folded), plus its 7 handed.

[nrs02004]

at 34 vpip he's pretty aggressive...

[NWNewell]

I’m calling down, especially with this flop.

He is fairly aggressive and with his post flop aggression, his continuation bet on the flop doesn't tell us anything.

With his UTG raise, I think he's got a pretty good hand. And with his cap when it is heads up, I think he has big cards or a pocket pair.

I will give him credit for:
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK (maybe a couple more, but we'll stick to that for now)

Statistically speaking, he'll hold the following hands a certain percentage of the time and will result in the following EV:
(pot odds of deciding to call down on the flop would be 6.75:2.5BB = 2.7:1)
AA ~ 11% = -2.5BB
KK ~ 10% = -1.39BB
AK ~ 27% = +3.25BB
pp QQ or below ~ 52% = -0.3BB

If you weight the EV’s based on the percent chance of that match up, your EV for calling down his bets to showdown is about +0.3BB. If you think he is looser and more aggressive (and would cap with more hands that you might dominate AQ, KQ), your EV goes up even more since.

I would make this decision based on weather I think my opponent would cap with AK or not. If he would, I’m calling (regardless of what other hands he would cap with). More pocket pairs wouldn’t be a huge impact (all pocket pairs would bring you down about even money), but more unpaired cards like AQ, AJ, KQ, would greatly increase your EV. And if he is tighter, say only capping with AA, KK, or AK, your EV is even higher (+1BB).

I think your getting all your EV from him playing AK. So, I think this guy, with as aggressive as he seems to be, would probably cap heads up with AK. So, I’m probably calling down.

[Actuary]

NWNewell

^^^^^^^^

I agree with that guy
Assuming the math is correct.

I'm not in a habit of calling down with AK; but in this case; it looks good.
At least one time.

Camelot: you know enough to know the preflop 3-bet is automatic.

[screech]

nice post newell.

I agree that calling down against this opponent is a losing propositon. I'm always seeing a river card though.

[Garn]

why not raise the flop if you don't think that he has the best hand right now

[princeof56k]

(pot odds of deciding to call down on the flop would be 6.75:2.5BB = 2.7:1)
AA ~ 11% = -2.5BB
KK ~ 10% = -1.39BB
AK ~ 27% = +3.25BB
pp QQ or below ~ 52% = -0.3BB

I think I'm missing something here. How did you get the AK figures? That number doesnt seem right since we're calling down for a split. Once the flop comes down, we are calling down in order to get half of the 4.75 BB in pot. I mean, arent we risking 2.5 BB (flop, turn, and river bets) in order to win half of the 4.75 BB (~2.5 BB) in the pot. My brain is mush since I've been working all morning. Could you please show how you came up with 3.25BB?

[screech]

why not raise the flop if you don't think that he has the best hand right now

If you don't think he has the best hand, raising the flop is good. You'd have to be pretty ****ing retarded to think villian doesn't have the best hand on the flop though

[Garn]

If you don't think he has the best hand, raising the flop is good. You'd have to be pretty ****ing retarded to think villian doesn't have the best hand on the flop though

i disagree. i in fact don't think I am retarted. This guy is loose and could easily cap with AK,AQ, or even KQ.

[Zach6668]

i disagree. i in fact don't think I am retarted. This guy is loose and could easily cap with AK,AQ, or even KQ.

He'll probably 3-bet the flop then if that's the case.

- Zach

[thecamelot]

I dunno, what hands am I beating that villain caps heads up? AQs maybe?

He's loose, but I don't know about full out retarded.

Didn't think I could continue in this case:

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2:club:, 2:heart:, 6:diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4:spade: (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

And Actuary, I know it's an easy 3-bet I don't know why I even had the doubt in the post. I know better.

[Actuary]

nice post newell.

I agree that calling down against this opponent is a losing propositon. I'm always seeing a river card though.

so are you saying the math is wrong, and it's -EV to call down, even UI on river?
I did not verify.

[Rasty]

Going into calldown mode on the flop HU is sort of gross to me.

Anyone else raise the flop?

Free card play means I see two more for one small bet, or if he three-bets I spend one BB to find out I'm being bent over.

[Actuary]

Going into calldown mode on the flop HU is sort of gross to me.

Anyone else raise the flop?

Free card play means I see two more for one small bet, or if he three-bets I spend one BB to find out I'm being bent over.

you're against a very laggy villain, I'd be afaid of outplying myself with that strategy.

[Abbaddabba]

i disagree. i in fact don't think I am retarted. This guy is loose and could easily cap with AK,AQ, or even KQ.

Even if he does cap with all those hands, he probably also caps with all mid and high pairs too. Maybe even low pairs.


You're usually beat on the flop.



I'd either peel the flop and fold the turn UI, or call down the whole way UI. Im not calling the turn and folding the river.

Going into calldown mode on the flop HU is sort of gross to me.

Anyone else raise the flop?

Free card play means I see two more for one small bet, or if he three-bets I spend one BB to find out I'm being bent over

You dont find out anything. He 3bets with most overpairs that he caps with preflop, and sometimes AK. Why put in 1.5 big bets on just the flop when you can see the flop and the turn for the same price? And show it down for a mere 1 big bet more.

[Zach6668]

I'm having severe, severe amounts of problems with AK UI. I need help. I seem to try to justify calling down. Only once has it worked for me when I busted AQ.

My overcard play blows. This is a good thread.

- Zach

[NWNewell]

I think I'm missing something here. How did you get the AK figures? That number doesnt seem right since we're calling down for a split. Once the flop comes down, we are calling down in order to get half of the 4.75 BB in pot. I mean, arent we risking 2.5 BB (flop, turn, and river bets) in order to win half of the 4.75 BB (~2.5 BB) in the pot. My brain is mush since I've been working all morning. Could you please show how you came up with 3.25BB?

so are you saying the math is wrong, and it's -EV to call down, even UI on river?
I did not verify.

Actually, my math was slightly off. princeof56k, you are correct. I screwed the pooch on that one. Sorry.

Actually our EV is about even money to -0.1BB to call down in this spot with the range of hands I quoted. But my intensions were to show that against a typical player, it is pretty close to even money. But sinse this guy seemed pretty agressive, and I think he could be capping with a lot more hands, I think we have positive EV to call down. But on the other hand, raising is going to through off our pot odds and lower our EV, and I think we are behind often enough that raising this flop is not for value and won't bluff him off often enough (sinse he is that loose aggressive, I don't think he is laying it down.). So, I think I would call down this flop.

Basically I was just trying to point out my line and reasoning on possibly calling down in this spot. Your read on the likely hood of your opponent would cap with AK (or even AQs, KQs) really makes or breaks this play. If you think he is very agressive and would, then I'm calling down. If you don't think he would, then I'm folding.

It's definitely not right all the time (in fact I wouldn't do it against most opponents). But I would pull this on occation against a LA player (or maniac).

QUOTE(Rasty @ Saturday, March 25th, 2006, 11:53 PM)
Going into calldown mode on the flop HU is sort of gross to me.
Anyone else raise the flop?
Free card play means I see two more for one small bet, or if he three-bets I spend one BB to find out I'm being bent over.

you're against a very laggy villain, I'd be afaid of outplying myself with that strategy.

My thoughts exactly. Against a more typical opponent, I would use your flop raise line often.