4 replies to this topic

[amarillotg]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t2861)
UTG (t1079)
Button (t4216)
SB (t11844)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 , J .
UTG raises all-in [t1079] , 2 folds, Hero ???

the pot is laying me about 2.4-1

do i call and take a shot at elimanting the last villain before the money?

[Rocketwadster]

No. If you were one of the larger chip stacks, then yes, but since you are very low in chips yourself, calling and losing this hand puts you at great risk. Remember 10-1 rule (a la Harrington)...

Look at decisions, not results.

[gobears]

I'm calling here - I put UTG on any two cards as he's in the BB next hand with only 600 after posting. Also, if we win then we are pretty much tied for 2nd.

If we lose, then we have 1800 chips compared to villain's 2200 chips but he goes into the BB while we are in the SB and we're pretty much equivalent.

I would like to see what the SNG analyzer says about this hand though.

[amarillotg]

I'm calling here - I put UTG on any two cards as he's in the BB next hand with only 600 after posting. Also, if we win then we are pretty much tied for 2nd.

If we lose, then we have 1800 chips compared to villain's 2200 chips but he goes into the BB while we are in the SB and we're pretty much equivalent.

I would like to see what the SNG analyzer says about this hand though.

this was my thinking. im not totally out of it if i lose, but im the money with a win and i've got a decent shot at 2nd now.

im too cheap to buy sng analyzer right now, anyone spew out some results?

[copernicus]

Its unfortunate that SB isnt doing his job. SnGPT says this is narrowly a call, whether you put CO on a random two cards, or the top 50% of all hands (on the assumption that he is in the blinds but still wants an above average hand).

In fact, he would have to be so tight as to only push with the top 10% of all hands to make this a fold. Lets try and figure out why, using top 40% as his pushing range, where the value of calling is about .7% of the prize pool.

If we fold we are down to 2400 chips and in the SB. He is up to 1679 chips and is in the BB, so that might effectively give us 2500 chips to his 1579. That means we are about 60% to pick up 3rd place if are HU vs him, and 2400/8000 or 30% to pick up 2d place (ignoring first place chances). So we have about 21% of the total prize pool in equity.

If we call we are going win about 1/3 of the time and lose 2/3 of the time. (Theres a clue...theres 1679 in the pot, and it costs us 679 to call so on a TC basis its clearly a call).

So, back to prize equity. If we lose we are down to about 1200 chips and he is up to 2160. Adjusting a little for blinds its effectively 1100 to 2300, so we are down to 30% for 3rd, and 1200/8000 and 15% for second. Overall weve dropped to about 11% of the prize pool (giving us 0% of first place).

If we win we have locked up 3rd place, we have about 20% chance of first place, and 35% chance of 2d place. So our equity here is a little above 40% of the prize pool.

Weighting the 11% and 40% (2/3, 1/3) which is just under 21%. So, on very rough numbers it looks like it doesnt matter whether we call or fold.

The main difference between the rough guess and the precise calculation is that J3s is 35.8% against the top 40% of all hands, not just 33%.

There is one consideration that may turn this to a fold, and thats how tight the SB is playing. We have position on him 3 out of 4 hands. If we can duck confrontations with him, we might have a small edge over the other 2 small stacks who are OOP against him more often.