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Would Love For Daniel To Discuss This Hand Of His


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#1 Andy Beal

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 10:58 AM

Freddy limps with Ac As, Daniel raises around back with KhJs... Freddy reraises to about $30k (around 3x Daniel's original raise). Freddy had $80k behind it so his implied odds are about 2.5:1. Daniel calls.Board comes 9cJcTh... pot is $75.3kDN checks, FD goes all in for $80k... DN sorta nonchalantly calls saying he is getting about 2:1 and he thinks he is a 2:1 dog.I would be interested to hear his thinking on this hand---especially when he asked to run it twice as a 2:1 dog.Also, as a more general comment---and please don't take this as a shot at any of the pros---it just seems that a lot of the big losses these guys get themselves into could be avoided simply by better preflop selection. Rarely do they scoop a pot by raising late with junk and then betting the flop. These guys just don't let that happen very often. More likely, one is going to flop a piece and then not get away from it. This seems like poor play. I would like to understand it some from the perspective of the pro themselves.
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#2 nomad_monad

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 03:22 PM

View PostAndy Beal, on Tuesday, March 21st, 2006, 10:58 AM, said:

Freddy limps with Ac As, Daniel raises around back with KhJs... Freddy reraises to about $30k (around 3x Daniel's original raise). Freddy had $80k behind it so his implied odds are about 2.5:1. Daniel calls.Board comes 9cJcTh... pot is $75.3kDN checks, FD goes all in for $80k... DN sorta nonchalantly calls saying he is getting about 2:1 and he thinks he is a 2:1 dog.I would be interesetd to hear his thinking on this hand---especially when asked to run it twice as a 2:1 dog.Also, as a more general comment---and please don't take this as a shot at any of the pros---it just seems that a lot of the big losses these guys get themselves into could be avoided simply by better preflop selection. Rarely do they scoop a pot by raising late with junk and then betting the flop. These guys just don't let that happen very often. More likely, one is going to flop a piece and then not get away from it. This seems like poor play. I would like to understand it some from the perspective of the pro themselves.
Well, I'm not DN, but he's got nine outs here if he put Freddy on AA.4 Queens - for an inside str82 Jacks - for trip jacks3 Kings - for 2 pairNine outs with 2 cards to come is approx 36% (9 * 4 using the rule of 2/4), which is about 2-1 odds. Not sure why he asked to run it twice though.

#3 davezz5

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 03:45 PM

Wouldnt you want to run it twice being a 2:1 dog? 2 chances of splitting the pot against sudden death.
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#4 looshle

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 04:03 PM

Running it multiple times does not reduce your equity. He's a 2-1 dog once the money goes in whether they run it once or 75 times. Dannys not putting up more money once he finds out he is a dog.Running it more than once reduces variance, why would anyone want to run it multiple times as a dog if it took money out of their pockets? These guys are at the top in the game of poker and I'm pretty sure they know what they are doing.
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#5 nomad_monad

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 04:36 PM

Right. Duh. Brain fart.So I guess then my question is as a 2-1 favorite, why would Freddy agree to this? Just to reduce variance?

#6 DB10-2

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 05:08 PM

View Postnomad_monad, on Tuesday, March 21st, 2006, 6:36 PM, said:

Right. Duh. Brain fart.So I guess then my question is as a 2-1 favorite, why would Freddy agree to this? Just to reduce variance?
overall, probably. maybe there will be a time when he gets his money in against DN as a 2-1 dog. will DN now be more or less likely to agree to run it twice?

#7 Andy Beal

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Posted 21 March 2006 - 06:08 PM

View Postdavezz5, on Tuesday, March 21st, 2006, 5:45 PM, said:

Wouldnt you want to run it twice being a 2:1 dog? 2 chances of splitting the pot against sudden death.
I'll be glad to run it as many times as you like when I'm the 2:1 favorite. :DFirst off let me say I am not clear exactly the way running it twice works. Hopefully Daniel will read this thread and comment on the following analysis.Now, Daniel is about a 2:1 underdog on the flop when the money goes in. To simplify matters let's look at the following approximate probabilities (I realize that if DN hits one or more of his outs in the first run then there are fewer outs for him to hit on the second run, but for now---to simplify things---we will ignore this subtlety):Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9Daniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9THEORY A: SPLITTING THE EXISTING POT BETWEEN THE RUNSThe pot is fixed once the money goes in (in this case it was $235.3k). Since the money went in after the flop was shown, only the turn and river cards are run twice. The winner of each run wins half the existing pot ($117.65k).Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 for $235.3k - $110k = +$125.3kDaniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 for -$110kDaniel's expectation: (1/9)($125.3k)+(4/9)($7.65k)+(4/9)(-$110k) = -$31.57k(For the record, this is what I believe they are doing.)THEORY B: PAYING THE ALL IN AMOUNT FOR EACH RUNFor the all in call, Daniel called $80k into a $155.3k pot. Here we will act as if each player will basically play the all in betting sequence twice with the same given flop. The pot then becomes $75.3k (preflop) + 4*$80k = $395.3k and each player wins half of the (new) TOTAL pot.Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 for $395.3k - $190k = +$205.3kDaniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 for $197.65k - $190k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9 for $197.65k - $190k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 for -$190kDaniel's expectation: (1/9)($125.3k)+(4/9)($7.65k)+(4/9)(-$110k) = -$58.23k(I don't see how this is what they are doing since if one of the players is "all in", where do they get the money to "pay" for the second run?)WHAT ABOUT JUST RUNNING IT ONCE?!Daniel's expectation: (1/3)($125.3k)+(2/3)(-$110k) = -$31.57kWhile this may surprise some, it doesn't surprise Daniel or any of the other pros! The reason they run it twice is their EV does not change---but running it successively does decrease the variance.I would ALWAYS run it twice as a 2:1 fav! :club: I don't see why (other than pure gambling reasons) someone would choose to run it more than once as a 2:1 dog.
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#8 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 06:14 AM

Maybe im being stupid,but lets use a more obvious example. Barry against Farha. When Farha hit his set against the kings, he offered to run it again. Barry turned him down, maybe because he said no pre-flop, maybe because he wasnt sure Farha had the set as he hadnt turned his pocket cards over. Wouldnt you jump at the chance of having two shots at making your hand? four chances of hitting an ace (turn + river twice,as opposed to once)?
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#9 Andy Beal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 07:00 AM

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 8:14 AM, said:

Maybe im being stupid,but lets use a more obvious example. Barry against Farha. When Farha hit his set against the kings, he offered to run it again. Barry turned him down, maybe because he said no pre-flop, maybe because he wasnt sure Farha had the set as he hadnt turned his pocket cards over. Wouldnt you jump at the chance of having two shots at making your hand? four chances of hitting an ace (turn + river twice,as opposed to once)?
As outlined above, running it as many times as you want does NOT affect the equity, just the variance. Someone with a big fav should crave fixed equity and reduced variance. On the other hand, a big dog should crave higher variance and hence should only want it run once!I still wanna know exactly how they do the payoffs when they run it twice, whether it is Theory A or Theory B above. If it is A as I suspect, it really just doesn't matter whether they run it one time or n times even if n is very large.
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#10 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 07:30 AM

View PostAndy Beal, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 7:00 AM, said:

As outlined above, running it as many times as you want does NOT affect the equity, just the variance. Someone with a big fav should crave fixed equity and reduced variance. On the other hand, a big dog should crave higher variance and hence should only want it run once!I still wanna know exactly how they do the payoffs when they run it twice, whether it is Theory A or Theory B above. If it is A as I suspect, it really just doesn't matter whether they run it one time or n times even if n is very large.
Obviously im only talking about variance.Obviously they only play for the money in the middle no matter how many times they run it, not multiples.Would you rather have four chances of hitting your hand or two?So BG should see his opponent with a set and 'crave higher variance' knowing that it is harder to hit an ace with two attemps than four (8/1 against 4/1 approx?)
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#11 The Jackal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 07:32 AM

It seemed to me that from all of the episodes so far, Daniel was happier to run it twice when he was the dog, but only wanted to run it once when he was the fav.

#12 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 07:43 AM

Theres variance and there's luck. obviously over say 50 runs,. 100 runs variance will work itself out. only running a hand 2-3 times isnt going to affect variance, but you can get always get "unlucky".
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#13 Andy Beal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 07:56 AM

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 9:43 AM, said:

Theres variance and there's luck. obviously over say 50 runs,. 100 runs variance will work itself out. only running a hand 2-3 times isnt going to affect variance, but you can get always get "unlucky".
Luck is not a scientific term and as such I do not know what it means.As for variance, it does not take a large number of trials to shrink the variance. Two is enough to have an effect although a larger number would certainly decrease the variance even more; that is why the pros care enough to run it twice.

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 9:30 AM, said:

Obviously im only talking about variance.Obviously they only play for the money in the middle no matter how many times they run it, not multiples.Would you rather have four chances of hitting your hand or two?So BG should see his opponent with a set and 'crave higher variance' knowing that it is harder to hit an ace with two attemps than four (8/1 against 4/1 approx?)
You must keep in mind that if they agree to run it n times and you (as the underdog) spike m of those times (where m is certainly going to be much smaller than n in general), you only get m/n of the total pot.It is NOT "if I spike my dog once I win the whole pot". That would be an absurd transaction for the favorite to engage in.At the end of the day, if BG gets to run it til the deck is empty in the dealers hand it will NOT affect his expected value. I think you are thinking that it does (based on your last sentence).
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#14 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 08:49 AM

View PostAndy Beal, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 7:56 AM, said:

Luck is not a scientific term and as such I do not know what it means.As for variance, it does not take a large number of trials to shrink the variance. Two is enough to have an effect although a larger number would certainly decrease the variance even more; that is why the pros care enough to run it twice.You must keep in mind that if they agree to run it n times and you (as the underdog) spike m of those times (where m is certainly going to be much smaller than n in general), you only get m/n of the total pot.It is NOT "if I spike my dog once I win the whole pot". That would be an absurd transaction for the favorite to engage in.At the end of the day, if BG gets to run it til the deck is empty in the dealers hand it will NOT affect his expected value. I think you are thinking that it does (based on your last sentence).
Of course it does, any action that increases his chance of splitting the pot increases his expected value. If i placed a bucket 20 yards away and said i will give you $20 if you can throw a coin into it. Do you want one attempt or five?If BG gets to run the deck, he will hit his ace and split the pot. the pot isnt divided into how many times its run. In the same way if its run three times it isnt split into thirds-they sometimes do this because they want an outright winner i.e 2-1 or 2-0. Winner takes all.
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#15 Andy Beal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 09:00 AM

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 10:49 AM, said:

Of course it does, any action that increases his chance of splitting the pot increases his expected value. If i placed a bucket 20 yards away and said i will give you $20 if you can throw a coin into it. Do you want one attempt or five?If BG gets to run the deck, he will hit his ace and split the pot. the pot isnt divided into how many times its run. In the same way if its run three times it isnt split into thirds-they sometimes do this because they want an outright winner i.e 2-1 or 2-0. Winner takes all.
You are just plain wrong because you are thinking that if you spike once as the dog you get the WHOLE pot. YOU DO NOT. Why would ANYONE who is the favorite go for such a deal? The dog only gets the ratio m/n of the pot where m is the number of times he spikes and n is the total number of runs.The math is simple. It does NOT change the EV with the way they play it (which is NOT the way you are offering to play the game).Look a few posts up at my THEORY A calculation and my WHY NOT JUST RUN IT ONCE calculation. That should convince you.
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#16 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 09:13 AM

View PostAndy Beal, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 9:00 AM, said:

You are just plain wrong because you are thinking that if you spike once as the dog you get the WHOLE pot. YOU DO NOT. Why would ANYONE who is the favorite go for such a deal? The dog only gets the ratio m/n of the pot where m is the number of times he spikes and n is the total number of runs.The math is simple. It does NOT change the EV with the way they play it (which is NOT the way you are offering to play the game).Look a few posts up at my THEORY A calculation and my WHY NOT JUST RUN IT ONCE calculation. That should convince you.
where do i say they get the whole Pot?- SPLIT THE POT.If your ahead as far as Farha was, why give variance the opportunity of kicking him in the ***? variance can only work against you. and if you read what i said about running it three times your m/n ratio doesn't work either.THERE IS A CLEAR WINNER.......!"!!"! . get it? Winner takes all not 2/3rds.
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#17 Andy Beal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 10:02 AM

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 11:13 AM, said:

where do i say they get the whole Pot?- SPLIT THE POT.If your ahead as far as Farha was, why give variance the opportunity of kicking him in the ***? variance can only work against you. and if you read what i said about running it three times your m/n ratio doesn't work either.THERE IS A CLEAR WINNER.......!"!!"! . get it? Winner takes all not 2/3rds.
I am sorry but you just don't understand how running it twice works. The winner of run #1 gets 1/2 of the total pot. The winner of run #2 gets 1/2 of the total pot.If you ran it three times the pot would be in thirds and the winner of each run would get 1/3 of the total pot.If you ran it n times, the winner of each run would get 1/n of the total pot.Ergo, if you spike on him m times (which IS going to be small since you are the 2:1) dog, you only get m/n of the pot.Expected value is absolutely unchanged no matter how many times you run it.If you are still not convinced, read Daniel's own reply in this thread:
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#18 davezz5

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 10:31 AM

View PostAndy Beal, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 10:02 AM, said:

I am sorry but you just don't understand how running it twice works. The winner of run #1 gets 1/2 of the total pot. The winner of run #2 gets 1/2 of the total pot.If you ran it three times the pot would be in thirds and the winner of each run would get 1/3 of the total pot.If you ran it n times, the winner of each run would get 1/n of the total pot.Ergo, if you spike on him m times (which IS going to be small since you are the 2:1) dog, you only get m/n of the pot.Expected value is absolutely unchanged no matter how many times you run it.If you are still not convinced, read Daniel's own reply in this thread:
No you are making a mistake. Run three times winner takes all. Your not reading what i say, plus your making assumptions. I surrender..good luck
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#19 Andy Beal

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Posted 22 March 2006 - 11:04 AM

View Postdavezz5, on Wednesday, March 22nd, 2006, 12:31 PM, said:

No you are making a mistake. Run three times winner takes all. Your not reading what i say, plus your making assumptions. I surrender..good luck
LOL... How do you run an event and winner take all if there are different outcomes in each trial?
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#20 Verdimme

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Posted 23 March 2006 - 07:51 AM

Andy Beal is right. But can't anyone read the sticky about not posting your hands here? :club:
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