speedz99 145 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Unfortunately, the flop came K-8-7. We ran it twice from there as I had two back door flush draws, but I missed both and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat. Is that really a good move to put $100,000 on two back door flush draws? I'm asking...I'm not sure how to run a sim on that. Link to post Share on other sites
JacKingOff_suit 0 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Is that really a good move to put $100,000 on two back door flush draws? I'm asking...I'm not sure how to run a sim on that. I think it's very -EV, as there were two back foor flush draws by Daniel, there's also a back door flush draw by David Benyamine.I would have asked if I could surrender on the flop and get 50K back. But may be it's Daniel's fearlessness makes him a winner in the high stake mixed games, like sacrificing this to win that... Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 running twice means the someone was all in, or in this case, the cap was reached and there can be no more bets. The hands are turned over and they deal the remaining cards, for half the pot.Then they deal new cards, for the other half. DN had two chances to catch his flush, for half the pot each time.Had h caught once, he would have only lost $50K Link to post Share on other sites
StraightHouse 0 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Running the hand twice does nothing to EV. It just lowers variance a little bit. In the long run it doesn't matter. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Running the hand twice does nothing to EV. It just lowers variance a little bit. In the long run it doesn't matter. Exactly. Many people don't understand this simple concept. Whether or not you deal it once, twice, three time, or ten times, it has precisely zero effect on the EV. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Exactly. Many people don't understand this simple concept. Whether or not you deal it once, twice, three time, or ten times, it has precisely zero effect on the EV.Question - if on the flop, you decide to run the turn and river twice:do you reshuffle the first turn and river back into the deck? or can the cards which are the first turn and river not hit the board on the second running? Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Beal 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Question - if on the flop, you decide to run the turn and river twice:do you reshuffle the first turn and river back into the deck? or can the cards which are the first turn and river not hit the board on the second running?No you do not add the 1st run's cards back in. Like DN and the guy above says, running it n times only makes the EV realized as n tends to infinity, i.e. only shrinks the variance about the EV.This is (mathematically) why the pros want to run it more than once. Link to post Share on other sites
sholden 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Exactly. Many people don't understand this simple concept. Whether or not you deal it once, twice, three time, or ten times, it has precisely zero effect on the EV.Except you said "and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat" and since the cap was $100k that implies you ran it twice for $100k each each time - which is ridiculously stupid. Since you don't seem to be border line retarted I suspect you really meant stuck $100,000 but that's not what the blog said. (unless you lost $100k before "the first key pot I played"- which seems unlikely ... Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Except you said "and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat" and since the cap was $100k that implies you ran it twice for $100k each each time - which is ridiculously stupid. Since you don't seem to be border line retarted I suspect you really meant stuck $100,000 but that's not what the blog said. (unless you lost $100k before "the first key pot I played"- which seems unlikely ... I was stuck $200,000 "right off the bat." Right off the bat doesn't necessarily mean that it was my first hand. I was referring to the fact that rather quickly, I was in the hole $200,000. Link to post Share on other sites
fleung22 1 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Exactly. Many people don't understand this simple concept. Whether or not you deal it once, twice, three time, or ten times, it has precisely zero effect on the EV.I could be wrong but I thought I read something where Daniel said he never ran cards twice through.Anybody confirm/deny? Link to post Share on other sites
srblan 0 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 I could be wrong but I thought I read something where Daniel said he never ran cards twice through.Anybody confirm/deny?He never makes deals for tournaments. I'm sure he regularly runs cards twice in close situations. Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Beal 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Is that really a good move to put $100,000 on two back door flush draws? I'm asking...I'm not sure how to run a sim on that.I'll be glad to run it as many times as you like when I'm the 2:1 favorite. First off let me say I am not clear exactly the way running it twice works. Hopefully Daniel will read this thread and comment on the following analysis.Now, Daniel is about a 2:1 underdog on the flop when the money goes in. To simplify matters let's look at the following approximate probabilities (I realize that if DN hits one or more of his outs in the first run then there are fewer outs for him to hit on the second run, but for now---to simplify things---we will ignore this subtlety):Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9Daniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9SPLITTING THE EXISTING POT BETWEEN THE RUNSThe pot is fixed once the money goes in (in this case it was $235.3k). Since the money went in after the flop was shown, only the turn and river cards are run twice. The winner of each run wins half the existing pot ($117.65k).Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 for $235.3k - $110k = +$125.3kDaniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 for -$110kDaniel's expectation: (1/9)($125.3k)+(4/9)($7.65k)+(4/9)(-$110k) = -$31.57k(For the record, this is what I believe they are doing.)WHAT ABOUT JUST RUNNING IT ONCE?!Daniel's expectation: (1/3)($125.3k)+(2/3)(-$110k) = -$31.57kWhile this may surprise some, it doesn't surprise Daniel or any of the other pros! The reason they run it twice is their EV does not change---but running it successively does decrease the variance.I would ALWAYS run it twice as a 2:1 fav! I don't see why (other than pure gambling reasons) someone would choose to run it more than once as a 2:1 dog. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 I'll be glad to run it as many times as you like when I'm the 2:1 favorite. First off let me say I am not clear exactly the way running it twice works. Hopefully Daniel will read this thread and comment on the following analysis.Now, Daniel is about a 2:1 underdog on the flop when the money goes in. To simplify matters let's look at the following approximate probabilities (I realize that if DN hits one or more of his outs in the first run then there are fewer outs for him to hit on the second run, but for now---to simplify things---we will ignore this subtlety):Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9Daniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9Daniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9SPLITTING THE EXISTING POT BETWEEN THE RUNSThe pot is fixed once the money goes in (in this case it was $235.3k). Since the money went in after the flop was shown, only the turn and river cards are run twice. The winner of each run wins half the existing pot ($117.65k).Daniel goes Win-Win: 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 for $235.3k - $110k = +$125.3kDaniel goes Win-Lose: 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Win: 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9 for $117.65k - $110k = +$7.65kDaniel goes Lose-Lose: 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 for -$110kDaniel's expectation: (1/9)($125.3k)+(4/9)($7.65k)+(4/9)(-$110k) = -$31.57k(For the record, this is what I believe they are doing.)WHAT ABOUT JUST RUNNING IT ONCE?!Daniel's expectation: (1/3)($125.3k)+(2/3)(-$110k) = -$31.57kWhile this may surprise some, it doesn't surprise Daniel or any of the other pros! The reason they run it twice is their EV does not change---but running it successively does decrease the variance.I would ALWAYS run it twice as a 2:1 fav! I don't see why (other than pure gambling reasons) someone would choose to run it more than once as a 2:1 dog. It doesn't matter if you are the favorite or the dog. For example, let's say I'm a 2-1 dog and we decide to run it all the way through the end of the deck. That would essentially be the same as splitting the pot where the favorite gets 2/3 and the dog would get 1/3 in the ling run. Link to post Share on other sites
ricker 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 It doesn't matter if you are the favorite or the dog. For example, let's say I'm a 2-1 dog and we decide to run it all the way through the end of the deck. That would essentially be the same as splitting the pot where the favorite gets 2/3 and the dog would get 1/3 in the ling run.I'm confused then, why would anyone agree to splitting off a third of their pot by running it twice? If I'm the 2:1 favorite, I would always take my advantage going to the turn and river.For instance if I hold AQ and my opponent holds A 9, I'll take those turns and rivers no matter what they are because I'm such a favorite over them.Maybe that's why I'm still in my little games.... Link to post Share on other sites
srblan 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 I'm confused then, why would anyone agree to splitting off a third of their pot by running it twice? If I'm the 2:1 favorite, I would always take my advantage going to the turn and river.For instance if I hold AQ and my opponent holds A 9, I'll take those turns and rivers no matter what they are because I'm such a favorite over them.Maybe that's why I'm still in my little games....The reason they do it is to reduce the effect of variance. Rather than getting hurt by bad beats, they run it twice to lessen the swings. Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 I'm confused then, why would anyone agree to splitting off a third of their pot by running it twice? If I'm the 2:1 favorite, I would always take my advantage going to the turn and river.For instance if I hold AQ and my opponent holds A 9, I'll take those turns and rivers no matter what they are because I'm such a favorite over them.Maybe that's why I'm still in my little games.... You are obviously missing the point BIG time. Let me try an example for you and see if you understand: Let's say that after the flop you are a 2:1 favorite. There is $300,000 in the pot. If you take $200,000 and your opponent takes $100,000 then it is a 100% fair split. There is no edge for either player. Now, let's say in that same example that you decided to run it three times. The favorite will usually win 2 out of 3 times. If that happens, they'll split the pot $200,000 for the favorite and $100,000 for the dog. Or, if the favorite scoops all three he'll get the whole pot. If the dog wins 2 out of 3, then he would win the $200,000. If a miracle happened, and the dog won all three, well, then he would scoop the whole pot. This changes NOTHING. If you ran it two, three, four, five, or even one time, the long term result wouldn't change at all. Link to post Share on other sites
srblan 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 This changes NOTHING. If you ran it two, three, four, five, or even one time, the long term result wouldn't change at all.Except that if you have something like a set vs. a flush draw, if you get outdrawn on the first run, you will be a bigger favorite on the second run since the cards are not replaced and some of his outs will have disappeared. Not sure if that makes a huge ev difference, maybe I'm just splitting hairs. Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Beal 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 You are obviously missing the point BIG time. Let me try an example for you and see if you understand: Let's say that after the flop you are a 2:1 favorite. There is $300,000 in the pot. If you take $200,000 and your opponent takes $100,000 then it is a 100% fair split. There is no edge for either player. Now, let's say in that same example that you decided to run it three times. The favorite will usually win 2 out of 3 times. If that happens, they'll split the pot $200,000 for the favorite and $100,000 for the dog. Or, if the favorite scoops all three he'll get the whole pot. If the dog wins 2 out of 3, then he would win the $200,000. If a miracle happened, and the dog won all three, well, then he would scoop the whole pot. This changes NOTHING. If you ran it two, three, four, five, or even one time, the long term result wouldn't change at all.I agree Daniel. Maybe the following explanation with further highlight your argument for your readers.We have claimed that the EV of either play is equal. So now, you may ask, if the EV is the "same" whether we run it once or twice, what argument can be given for running it once vs twice?Running twice reduces the variance by building in a "hedge" for both the dog and the fav. For example, compare my EV calculations in my long post above.Running it 2x: (1/9)($125.3k)+(4/9)($7.65k)+(4/9)(-$110k) = -$31.57kRunning it once: (1/3)($125.3k)+(2/3)(-$110k) = -$31.57kStare at this for a bit. If the EVs are equal, what argument can be given to justify a dog wanting to run it only once? Or a dog wanting it run 2x? Or a fav once vs 2x?I think it depends on the volatility the individuals have a tolerance for. Look at the EV calculations above: if you are the fav and run it once, you have a 67% chance of posting a $125.3k win, but also a 33% chance of losing $110k. However, if you run it twice, the good news is you have only about 11% chance of losing the max ($110k) but the tradeoff is you have reduced your chances of posting the big $123.5k win to 44.4%. The way this is accomplished is via the 44.4% chance that there is a chop which translates to a modest (by Daniel's standards!) profit of $7.65k.Similarly, if you are the dog, and you run it once, you have a 33% chance of posting the big $123.5k win but a 67% chance of posting the max loss too ($110k). If you run it twice, you have a smaller (11.1%) chance of winning the max, but also a smaller chance of losing the max (44.4%) and still a 44.4% chance it goes chop-chop for a modest gain.Mathematically, running it twice has the effect of building a "hedge" in for both parties. Now, whether a "hedge" is a good thing or a bad thing, is really a matter of personal risk/reward tolerances.Hope that viewpoint adds some to the discussion.PS Daniel, thanks for your response. It seems your comment opened my eyes to the viewpoint above and therefore helped me answer my own question of why a 2:1 dog would want to run it twice! Link to post Share on other sites
DanielNegreanu 141 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Except that if you have something like a set vs. a flush draw, if you get outdrawn on the first run, you will be a bigger favorite on the second run since the cards are not replaced and some of his outs will have disappeared. Not sure if that makes a huge ev difference, maybe I'm just splitting hairs. Actually, it has precisely zero effect. Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted March 23, 2006 Author Share Posted March 23, 2006 Actually, it has precisely zero effect. Is that because you decide to run it twice before ever seeing any cards? Or are the cards replaced in the deck before running it again?Actually, I didn't even realize the dealer reshuffles before running it the second time. I thought it was just one run after another. Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Beal 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Is that because you decide to run it twice before ever seeing any cards? Or are the cards replaced in the deck before running it again?Actually, I didn't even realize the dealer reshuffles before running it the second time. I thought it was just one run after another.When running it twice there is NO replacement of cards and this is a key component to the deal. They put down a turn and river and then another turn and river (with appropriate burning of cards but this has no effect on the probabilities). Link to post Share on other sites
lordofelt 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Except that if you have something like a set vs. a flush draw, if you get outdrawn on the first run, you will be a bigger favorite on the second run since the cards are not replaced and some of his outs will have disappeared. Not sure if that makes a huge ev difference, maybe I'm just splitting hairs.The reason its not a change to ev is because you're forgetting about the times where you miss your draw on the 1st run. I think you're thinking along the lines of "well if I have a flush draw I have 9 outs if I hit my suit on the 1st run then I only have 8 outs to hit on the 2nd run". This is true your win % will go down if you hit your suit on the 1st run but this is balanced by the times when you miss on the 1st run. Now you're a slightly higher % to win on the 2nd run as there are fewer cards in the deck and 9 of your suit left. But all of this has a zero effect on EV as none of this is known when you decide to run it twice and only becomes apparent after the fact. Link to post Share on other sites
G_Whiz 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Being a newbie, I am getting losy wondering what this EV means? A little help. Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Beal 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Being a newbie, I am getting losy wondering what this EV means? A little help. Expected Value Link to post Share on other sites
srblan 0 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 The reason its not a change to ev is because you're forgetting about the times where you miss your draw on the 1st run. I think you're thinking along the lines of "well if I have a flush draw I have 9 outs if I hit my suit on the 1st run then I only have 8 outs to hit on the 2nd run". This is true your win % will go down if you hit your suit on the 1st run but this is balanced by the times when you miss on the 1st run. Now you're a slightly higher % to win on the 2nd run as there are fewer cards in the deck and 9 of your suit left. But all of this has a zero effect on EV as none of this is known when you decide to run it twice and only becomes apparent after the fact.Fair enough, I guess I made the mistake of using knowledge of the deck composition at the wrong time.Actually, it has precisely zero effect. guess I didn't think it through as carefully as I thought. Link to post Share on other sites
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