16 replies to this topic

[MrNiceGuy]

Villain appears to be TAG, although I don't have much information on him yet. I've seen him pick up the blinds a couple times either preflop or with a continuation bet. One hand, after opening in the CO, he bet/folded a 9-high flop heads-up v. BB's check-raise.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6d], [8c].
3 folds, SB raises, Hero.....

Do I defend?

[screech]

Of course. I would defend with anything besides the worst 10%. Your hand has some connectedness, which is great since a semi-bluff can work against this guy.

[Verdimme]

Yep, i'll defend there.

[Sysvr4]

I'm likely the tightest of this entire bunch and even I call here.

Position + probable live cards + suitedness + connectedness + good odds == easy call



Jeff

[Pancake407]

I'm likely the tightest of this entire bunch and even I call here.

Position + probable live cards - suitedness + connectedness + good odds == easy call



Jeff

[Absolute]

There is argument for a fold here against a TAG.
But being in position with this hand is huge. I call also, but I don't think its as automatic as some of us think it is. I will calculate its equity after this set of sit and gos.

Also, excellent read.

[screech]

There is argument for a fold here against a TAG.
But being in position with this hand is huge. I call also, but I don't think its as automatic as some of us think it is. I will calculate its equity after this set of sit and gos.

Also, excellent read.

There's no way MNG could be worse than a 3:1 underdog against his range. It's impossible. So even if you pokerstove his equity against a plausible SB steal range, you will find this call to be pretty automatic.

But hot and cold hand equity doesn't tell the whole story. MNG has position, which is a huge advantage. And there are also a lot of flops that will give MNG a ton of fold equity against this player. Add all this up, and the call is pretty automatic.

[WonderfulSplash]

There's no way MNG could be worse than a 3:1 underdog against his range. It's impossible. So even if you pokerstove his equity against a plausible SB steal range, you will find this call to be pretty automatic.

But hot and cold hand equity doesn't tell the whole story. MNG has position, which is a huge advantage. And there are also a lot of flops that will give MNG a ton of fold equity against this player. Add all this up, and the call is pretty automatic.

Hey Screech, are you defending against a button raise here?

[screech]

Hey Screech, are you defending against a button raise here?

Depends on button. Most of the time I am.

[Absolute]

Depends on button. Most of the time I am.

A button raise would make this call extremely marginal unless the button is a bad player.

Being out of position with 86o against a raiser is going to be a tough situation to get long term value out of, even if you "play good post-flop".

[MrNiceGuy]

Ok, I called (obviously, or this wouldn't be much of a play-along). I think screech is right, that position and equity likely make this a call (although I'd listen if someone finds a good argument otherwise).

I think absolute is right though, about folding against a button steal (particularly with the SB only being 1/3). I think the rake needs to be considered as well when you are deciding whether to defend (regardless of position), as it can turn an otherwise marginal call into a fold.
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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6d], [8c].
3 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) [2c], [4d], [3d] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero......

Interesting flop, what's should my action and plan be?

[screech]

Ok, I called (obviously, or this wouldn't be much of a play-along). I think screech is right, that position and equity likely make this a call (although I'd listen if someone finds a good argument otherwise).

I think absolute is right though, about folding against a button steal (particularly with the SB only being 1/3). I think the rake needs to be considered as well when you are deciding whether to defend (regardless of position), as it can turn an otherwise marginal call into a fold.
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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6d], [8c].
3 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) [2c], [4d], [3d] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero......

Interesting flop, what's should my action and plan be?

raise

A button raise would make this call extremely marginal unless the button is a bad player.

Being out of position with 86o against a raiser is going to be a tough situation to get long term value out of, even if you "play good post-flop".

Yeah, you're right, it is marginal. I'd rather have 86o than something like J4s. That doesn't really mean anythign though.

Obviously I'm not going to be calling wiht these types of hands every time. Against most TAGs, I fold. Against someone with a low pfr % or low ATSB, I fold. Against all the other donkeys, I'm pretty sure it's profitable to call.

[Absolute]

Ok, I called (obviously, or this wouldn't be much of a play-along). I think screech is right, that position and equity likely make this a call (although I'd listen if someone finds a good argument otherwise).

I think absolute is right though, about folding against a button steal (particularly with the SB only being 1/3). I think the rake needs to be considered as well when you are deciding whether cto defend (regardless of position), as it can turn an otherwise marginal call into a fold.
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Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6d], [8c].
3 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) [2c], [4d], [3d] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero......

Interesting flop, what's should my action and plan be?

this isn't a terrible situation for a free card raise, but you get three-bet too often

i call and fold the turn UI

[screech]

this isn't a terrible situation for a free card raise, but you get three-bet too often

i call and fold the turn UI

Really?

Why are you so certain we're going to get 3-bet here? There aren't too many players willing to 3-bet Ax OOP on this board.

I like keeping the pressure on in these situations, especially since SB is capable of folding. I wouldn't be raising the flop for a free card. I'd raise to set up a fold later on.

The only problem here is that any ace high is getting to the river. And once they get there, they will probably end up seeing showdown.

Of course, his range is a lot wider than just Ax. It includes stuff like QJ and K9 that will peel the flop and fold the turn or river UI. I think this is a good spot to take control of the hand to set up a turn or river fold.

If you did just call, I don't think you can possibly fold the turn UI. You have an average of around 8 outs, and your implied odds are very good if he happens to hold an ace and the straight hits.

[Absolute]

Really?

Why are you so certain we're going to get 3-bet here? There aren't too many players willing to 3-bet Ax OOP on this board.

I like keeping the pressure on in these situations, especially since SB is capable of folding. I wouldn't be raising the flop for a free card. I'd raise to set up a fold later on.

The only problem here is that any ace high is getting to the river. And once they get there, they will probably end up seeing showdown.

Of course, his range is a lot wider than just Ax. It includes stuff like QJ and K9 that will peel the flop and fold the turn or river UI. I think this is a good spot to take control of the hand to set up a turn or river fold.

If you did just call, I don't think you can possibly fold the turn UI. You have an average of around 8 outs, and your implied odds are very good if he happens to hold an ace and the straight hits.

Isn't that the best argument to not pump a pot with 8 high?

You give us 8 clean outs?
If we raise and get called on the flop, we would be getting 5 to 1 if he bets the turn, nowhere close enough to stay in the hand even with implied odds.

[screech]

Isn't that the best argument to not pump a pot with 8 high?

Absolutely.

The thing is, his range is so much wider than Ax, that I htink it is more profitable for us to take control of this hand, since a lot of his range won't be able to get to sd in the face of aggression.

You give us 8 clean outs?
If we raise and get called on the flop, we would be getting 5 to 1 if he bets the turn, nowhere close enough to stay in the hand even with implied odds.

On average, yes, we have 8 clean outs here.

If we raise, and he donks the turn, a lot depends on the turn card. If it's a picture, and he donks, well we probably don't have 8 clean outs any more, so we have to fold.

I don't think he's going to donk too many turns though.

If we call, and he follows through with a bet on the turn, his range hasn't changed much at all. I still think we have 8 clean outs. And if we hit the straight, we will win at least 2BB from Ax.

[MrNiceGuy]

this isn't a terrible situation for a free card raise, but you get three-bet too often

i call and fold the turn UI

This is the line I chose, but I'm not sure raising isn't better.

Obviously villain won't fold Ax, but he probably folds any other unpaired hand to a bet here (unless he has a 5 or a 6, or two diamonds), although he might take a card off if he has overs with a high diamond. As a guess, I'd expect him to fold maybe 1/3 of the time.

If I'm right that villain will fold 1/3 of the time, then I think raising and calling are pretty close. By raising, I risk about 1.5 small bets (since he'll 3-bet sometimes) to win a 6 SB pot 1/3 of the time. Since 8 outs only gives me about 1/6 chance to win (since I'll fold the turn UI if I just call the flop), then by raising I'd win 5 SB's 1/3 of the time, which is roughly break-even for my investment. (My investment is actually a bit less than 1.5 SB's, since sometimes villain will call or 3-bet, but then I'll catch a card to win the pot.)

I think when you consider that I might get a free river by raising, that raising would have been the better play.

But this assumes I'm right that villain folds 1/3 of the time. If that's a low estimate, then I think raising is definitely better, but if it's too high of an estimate, I think calling would be best.

Does that make sense?
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So anyway, I just called the flop, but I think raising would have been better (I'm not positive though).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [6d], [8c].
3 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) [2c], [4d], [3d] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) [Td] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero......

Is this enough improvement to stick around? If so, call or raise?