62 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

This hand was an actual hand from an upcoming SS III episode with two players heads up. You are the button, and limp in for 60,000 with 10 4 and the big blind checks.

The flop comes 10 2 3 and the big blind bets out 60,000 which is half of the pot. You decide to raise it to 150,000 and your opponent studies for a few seconds, and then finally calls.

The turn card is the 7 and the big blind checks to you. A little worried about your kicker, you decide to check also and opt for the free card.

The river comes the A and your opponent bets out 250,000. You have him covered, he has an additional 450,000 while you have 950,000 in total.

Now, in this situation, would you go all in with your 10 high flush or would you just call.

[playingtowin]

I'd just call. The reason being ur opponent probably will not call u w/ a weaker hand if u reraise him allin and if he has u beat w/ a higher flush he definitely will call. By checking the turn, and now re-raising on the river w/ a T high flush, ur opponent will likely put u on the medium strength flush. The opponent's 250K bet on the river after u both had checked the turn looks like a defensive bet or a bet as a lure for u to re-raise allin. I would just call here.

[jayboogie]

I'd just call. The reason being ur opponent probably will not call u w/ a weaker hand if u reraise him allin and if he has u beat w/ a higher flush he definitely will call. By checking the turn, and now re-raising on the river w/ a T high flush, ur opponent will likely put u on the medium strength flush. The opponent's 250K bet on the river after u both had checked the turn looks like a defensive bet or a bet as a lure for u to re-raise allin. I would just call here.

You're pretty much assuming that your opponent can see through your cards. Your raise has value to it as you can not assume that your opponent will not call the river raise unless he beats you, your opponent may have 2 pair, had a set and slowplayed, made a smaller flush. HU, those hands are betting for value and I think we have a hand too good to not put all our chips in with here.

[FIREonICE]

this question/quiz is identical to quiz 12 but it's totally the opposite.

they key in this hand is the turn play for obvious reasons. I really find this situation to be almost a coinflip if he has the flush or not, because i'm sure the unknown player will play it the same exact way with any other hand (bluff)

he could have 45o, but then again, why would he risk calling 90k on the flop with a open-ended when theres a flus draw out there.

calling here is the safest play. like the poster above stated, you only get called by a better hand if you go all in.


edit: jayboogie...no way does your opponent play it this way with a set, or a strong 2 pair that will call your all in. if so, he is a very weak player.

easy quiz. next?

[Canada]

I think this is a call.

The A helps make a lot of non-flush hands, Top pair, Aces up, wheel all of which are unlikely to call a raise. Also it is a good scare card to bluff at, however no bluff is calling a raise either.

Based on his thinking at the flop raise, he may have been working out the value of a call. To call with a flush draw OOP alone would have been thin based on odds, so if he has called with that then he is likley to have had some extra outs to back him up, like over cards implying any flush he's made is higher than yours (only exception is 56)

Finally from his point of view, you have raised the flop and checked the turn. You've played exactly like a flush draw would.

Obviously you have to call, but it would be a poor opponent that calls any raise with a lesser hand than yours so a raise would only risk your chips, not return value.

[jayboogie]

You guys are missing a key point of this hand and that is the blinds, they're already high, if you're not willing to put in all your chips with the 4th nuts, what are you going to put them in with? If I make a hand this good HU, I'm trying to extract as much chips as possible and close the match if possible, if I'm beat, well there's not much I can do.

You're missing value by not raising here because hands you beat are still going to possibly call. If he made Aces up, it's going to be very hard for him to get away from this hand with the blinds at what they are and with how much he has put into the pot already.

I really don't see how you guys can pinpoint an opponents hand to have a flush here just because he raised the flop and checked the turn, it's HU, any hand is possible.

[Canada]

I really don't see how you guys can pinpoint an opponents hand to have a flush here just because he raised the flop and checked the turn, it's HU, any hand is possible.

We're not saying he has a flush.

We are saying that it's transparent if we raise that we have a flush.

Do you see why?

[jayboogie]

We're not saying he has a flush.

We are saying that it's transparent if we raise that we have a flush.

Do you see why?

If we raise, of course it'll cross his mind that we might have the flush, all the hands we might have that beat him, he'll think about before calling, that doesn't make it not right to raise just because our opponent thinks theres a good chance we have a flush.

Is it not possible that our opponent thinks we may be trying to represent the flush by going all-in?

[FIREonICE]

jayboogie, your initial statement said that the other player could've slowplayed a set, or hit two pair.

no way does a good player slow play a set on the flop and turn. 2 pair is more likely, but again, what could he be calling you down here on the flop/turn?..if he had two pair on the flop, we would've most likely seen another reraise. the only two pair i see him hitting is A10, but why would he wait until the turn to bet?




calling is the best option since there's a great chance that he is holding a greater hand.

[Canada]

If we raise, of course it'll cross his mind that we might have the flush, all the hands we might have that beat him, he'll think about before calling, that doesn't make it not right to raise just because our opponent thinks theres a good chance we have a flush.

Is it not possible that our opponent thinks we may be trying to represent the flush by going all-in?

Put yourself in the villains seat.

Are you calling an all-in with 2-pair or a set based on the way the hand played?

[jayboogie]

jayboogie, your initial statement said that the other player could've slowplayed a set, or hit two pair.

no one does a good player slow play a set on the flop and turn. 2 pair is more likely, but again, what could he be calling you down here on the flop/turn??

callin is the best option.

I'm throwing those out as possibilities, it's HU, why can't those hands be slowplayed? They're strong enough to be played this way if the player so chooses to. He didn't do anything on the turn, he just checked and got a free card. He just bet the flop and called a raise, I don't see how anybody can get a read on an opponents hands just from those actions. He bets the river, it could be a bluff, it could be a legitimate value betting hand, we don't know that, but we lose value for our own hand by not raising since we will get called from weaker hands given the blinds at what they are and in a HU situation.

You can make a better case for just calling this bet in a Tournament with more players in it and deeper stacks at a crucial point in the tournament against an opponent who has you covered.

Put yourself in the villains seat.

Are you calling an all-in with 2-pair or a set based on the way the hand played?

I would say given the chipstack situation, you're only left with 450k behind you and the blinds are already high that the chips are probably going in the middle with a good 2 pair or set, of course nothing is definite and maybe a strong read against an opponent will allow you to get away from it, but against a professional, that's just not happening here. A good player may see that flush card as an opportunity to push a player off a hand, which at these blinds is not inconceivable.

Also putting yourself in the villain's seat to decide whether to raise based on whether you would make the call is irrelevant, you have no idea whether your opponent would call with 2 pair, heck he may even call with just a pair here. Play is aggressive when HU and it doesn't take much more than a pair to get all the chips in there very often. As I said before, this is too good of an opportunity to close the match out to not take it.

Unless your opponent bets with nothing but the nuts, it's still a raise here.

[Canada]

I would say given the chipstack situation, you're only left with 450k behind you and the blinds are already high that the chips are probably going in the middle with a good 2 pair or set

So as a good player, how did you manage to pot commit yourself with a flush draw on the board?

[jayboogie]

So as a good player, how did you manage to pot commit yourself with a flush draw on the board?

I really don't get what your arguing about? How is he committing himself if he feels he has the best hand here a fair amount of the time. What do you expect a player to do here with Aces Up? Check the river? Of course he's going to bet what he thinks is the best hand and then go over whether his opponent is capable of making the raise without the flush afterwards.

Have you not seen the blind structures in the PS Invitationals? It doesn't exactly allow for a lot of play, you're not exactly able to play a ton of streets when you have only about 10 big blinds in your stack.

[Canada]

I really don't get what your arguing about? How is he committing himself if he feels he has the best hand here a fair amount of the time. What do you expect a player to do here with Aces Up? Check the river? Of course he's going to bet what he thinks is the best hand and then go over whether his opponent is capable of making the raise without the flush afterwards.

Have you not seen the blind structures in the PS Invitationals? It doesn't exactly allow for a lot of play, you're not exactly able to play a ton of streets when you have only about 10 big blinds in your stack.

OK. I'm being too subtle here. Let me spell it out for you.

Lets look at all the information we have again.

Firstly we are assuming the villain is a good player.

Now how has he played the hand? There are 2 paths. 1 he has something. 2 he is bluffing. lets go down the first one.

he likes the flop as he bet into us. He then calls after thinking. At this point with a flush draw on the board he is either going to reraise here with 2-pair or a set or bet again on a safe turn. He didn't. (this is the point I was trying to make above)

So this means he likely has either a weak pair or a draw. As I said before, if he is drawing to a flush, he might like overcards as well to justify the call being OOP. Whilst he might also push with a flush draw on the flop, we know he doesn't have the A so he might be less likely to do so, although I'll concede it's less of a consideration HU

With a weak pair he may have an Ace kicker to justify his river bet, but would he not be tempted to raise our limp preflop with an Ace?

If he is on a draw he either has a flush or wheel draw. His wheel draw is less likely as he only has 6 clean outs and therefore the odds on the flop call are not there (remember he is OOP)

Now you can see there are reasons to doubt most of his holdings beyond a flush draw with overs. Or a weak pair hoping we are on the draw and will check behind on the turn (as we did)

So that brings it back to the river bet. It is likely to be with either a stronger flush or a weak hand trying to get us off. How much did he bet? $250,000 into a $420,000 pot. Does he want us to call? Looks like it to me



Now look at what he knows about our hand. (We are assuming we raise the river here) Again we either liked the flop or are bluffing. If we are bluffing is another $450,000 into a $670,000 pot on the river likely when the villain has represented the flush and is all but pot committed with weaker holdings? No. That means if we raise the river we are not bluffing, so lets replay the hand from the start and see what we have.

We raise the flop, so we have a piece of it, meaning either a draw or a good pair or better (This is why he has to raise the flop or bet at a safe turn card - a very important point you are not grasping). Then we check the turn, knowing that villain may have a flush draw. Is DN ever going to give an opponent a freecard to a flush/straight with top pair? Rarely. So the villain is probably going to assume that DN is likely on a draw.

Now the Ace, flush and straight all arrive, villain bets and we raise. WTF does he think we have?


Now we know all this, and he knows all this, and he knows that we know....

So as explained it is very unlikely he is at the river with 2-pair or set. He is more likely there with a good flush, a bluff, or on a long shot, the wheel.

Soooo.... with the exception of the wheel he's not calling unless he has us beat.



Now whilst all the evidence is wrapped up in likelys and such they are all good indicators and the point is, if we are beat we are still left with enough to carry on and if we aren't we are very unlikely to get value out of the raise

[wisky_VI]

sure seems like a situation where knowledge of the opponent is key.

without that I'll go with the call, I can't see them calling a raise without a higher flush. the turn check smells like a trap or drawing to a higher flush rather than just top pair or two pair.

interesting indeed.

[nutzbuster]

Call.

Why risk everything here?

[playingtowin]

OK. I'm being too subtle here. Let me spell it out for you.

Lets look at all the information we have again.

Firstly we are assuming the villain is a good player.

Now how has he played the hand? There are 2 paths. 1 he has something. 2 he is bluffing. lets go down the first one.

he likes the flop as he bet into us. He then calls after thinking. At this point with a flush draw on the board he is either going to reraise here with 2-pair or a set or bet again on a safe turn. He didn't. (this is the point I was trying to make above)

So this means he likely has either a weak pair or a draw. As I said before, if he is drawing to a flush, he might like overcards as well to justify the call being OOP. Whilst he might also push with a flush draw on the flop, we know he doesn't have the A so he might be less likely to do so, although I'll concede it's less of a consideration HU

With a weak pair he may have an Ace kicker to justify his river bet, but would he not be tempted to raise our limp preflop with an Ace?

If he is on a draw he either has a flush or wheel draw. His wheel draw is less likely as he only has 6 clean outs and therefore the odds on the flop call are not there (remember he is OOP)

Now you can see there are reasons to doubt most of his holdings beyond a flush draw with overs. Or a weak pair hoping we are on the draw and will check behind on the turn (as we did)

So that brings it back to the river bet. It is likely to be with either a stronger flush or a weak hand trying to get us off. How much did he bet? $250,000 into a $420,000 pot. Does he want us to call? Looks like it to me
Now look at what he knows about our hand. (We are assuming we raise the river here) Again we either liked the flop or are bluffing. If we are bluffing is another $450,000 into a $670,000 pot on the river likely when the villain has represented the flush and is all but pot committed with weaker holdings? No. That means if we raise the river we are not bluffing, so lets replay the hand from the start and see what we have.

We raise the flop, so we have a piece of it, meaning either a draw or a good pair or better (This is why he has to raise the flop or bet at a safe turn card - a very important point you are not grasping). Then we check the turn, knowing that villain may have a flush draw. Is DN ever going to give an opponent a freecard to a flush/straight with top pair? Rarely. So the villain is probably going to assume that DN is likely on a draw.

Now the Ace, flush and straight all arrive, villain bets and we raise. WTF does he think we have?
Now we know all this, and he knows all this, and he knows that we know....

So as explained it is very unlikely he is at the river with 2-pair or set. He is more likely there with a good flush, a bluff, or on a long shot, the wheel.

Soooo.... with the exception of the wheel he's not calling unless he has us beat.
Now whilst all the evidence is wrapped up in likelys and such they are all good indicators and the point is, if we are beat we are still left with enough to carry on and if we aren't we are very unlikely to get value out of the raise

This is very well thought out...wonder if u have this much time for decisions during the heat of a hand LOL. As I originally replied in my first post, this is definitely a call IMO. I very highly doubt the opponent will even call an all-in reraise here w/ a wheel.

[Canada]

This is very well thought out...wonder if u have this much time for decisions during the heat of a hand LOL. As I originally replied in my first post, this is definitely a call IMO. I very highly doubt the opponent will even call an all-in reraise here w/ a wheel.

i can never think things out at a table

[jayboogie]

That's just crazy how you feel you can gather that much information just from your opponent betting and calling a flop raise. With the way these blinds were, I'm sure a flush draw plays this flop much more aggressively, particularly if he had an overcard or 2 to the board as well. More than likely, the chips would have been in the middle if it were a flush draw, because the player with the flush draw has lots of fold equity on that flop and probably folds a hand that would raise the flop such as middle pair.

If he is a good player like you are assuming, he should be able to think that it's possible that you are representing the Ace or the flush and he'd consider calling you even with a much weaker hand. I don't know how often you have been HU, but you can't exactly wait for a premium hand to stick your chips in there. A pair is usually good enough to jam with.

The blinds at what they are encourage gambling and the players know that and play more accordingly and more aggressive, obviously everyone disagrees with me here, but we'll see what Daniel reveals as his answer, should be interesting.

[shpaget]

All in.

Let's see what the BB could have that wins:

K, Q or J high flush = 18 hands

What can he have that you beat that he could call all in:

Any two diamonds 5-9 = 10 hands

AT = 6 hands
A3 = 9 hands
A2 = 9 hands
TT = 1 hand (may or may not raise pf with this)
22 = 6 hands
33 = 6 hands
4x5x = 12 hands

Even if you give BB credit to be able to fold his two pair hands, there are too many hands here that he could have that he will call your bet with. Even if you eliminate all sets as not likely because he'd bet the turn with a set.

It would be very difficult for him to lay down any lower flush.

Based simply on the flush possibilities, if BB has a flush, you've got a decent chance you beat it AND that he'll call with it. Plus I contend he would be hardpressed to fold aces up or a set, and that they can't easily be discounted as possible holdings. I also think he can't fold the wheel.

Besides, if you think he'll fold a 9 or 8 high flush, you also have to consider that he may fold a J or even Q high flush too.

So, with an allin bet here you have SOME (though very little) fold equity, because you could, conceivably, get a better hand to fold.