Ft Bubble Hand.

[PrtyPSux 0]

Hey, I dont remember this hand completely so details may be a bit off, but I remember this is the hand that I thought the most about in the 55k on monday.10 players left, Im chiplead with 2.5mil, 2nd has 1.5 ish. Table is 5 handed and Ive been bluffing and raising a lot of pots.Blinds 20k/40k some sort of ante (5k maybe? not sure)I get 99 UTG, I raise 120k, folds to the BB who pushes in 1.12 mil. (just to keep numbers round) its 1 mil to me, theres 1.3 or so in the pot. what do you do?I figure on the bubble, BB isnt pushing crap, so he has at least two overs, possibly 10's j's or Q's...AA or KK dont seem likely since he played it pretty fast. I suck at all the math and this situation seems to be almost pure math online. thanks.

[gobears 0]

I'm folding here and I would add AA/KK to his likely holdings. He has to respect an UTG raise from the chip leader and probably doesn't want to play a pot OOP.His stack size is in decent shape so I think that he has either a high PP or AK to make that play against you.If you fold, you're still chip leader and can continue clubbing all the other smaller stacks.

[gouldjr27 0]

I'm folding here and I would add AA/KK to his likely holdings. He has to respect an UTG raise from the chip leader and probably doesn't want to play a pot OOP.His stack size is in decent shape so I think that he has either a high PP or AK to make that play against you.If you fold, you're still chip leader and can continue clubbing all the other smaller stacks.

I take it you folded.I don't think I would put him on AA or KK. If he were to have those top two pairs against an aggressive player don't you think he would want you to play? If I was in your position the first thing that would pop into my head is 10's through Q's.Nice job in the tourney. Question for you... what was your starting bankroll deposit and what size tournaments did you play?GL, keeping tearing up Stars...

[amarillotg 0]

interesting situation.pot is laying 1.33-1your equity against his range is:1) 40% of the time your facing 2 overcards (AK etc) - this might be a little high but i would factor in the small chance that he could be taking a stand here with 2 face cards.2) 35% of the time your facing an overpair (TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA)3) 15% of the time your facing an underpair (88, 77) - not too likely but possible.so the equity as follows would be:1) 21.76%2) 6.33%3) 12.21%total equity for the hand would = 40.3 or 40%your a 3-2 dog in the hand and the pot is laying you about 2.66-2 odds.the math argues for a fold.

[copernicus 0]

easy fold.Also, when ive been running over the table for a while, I like to slow down on middle pairs. They cant stand a reraise, even if its from someone whos just tired of being pushed around, but if you flop well they have a lot of hidden value. ("Hes been raising any two cards, would he really limp with 99?" ... raise ..re-raise...."oh ****" ) Then if they do get raised you can get out cheaply.

[mk 11]

I remember Daniel writing somewhere (maybe in an old Cardplayer article?) about the need to be aggressive with a chip lead, but also the need to protect it, i.e. not taking unnecessary risks when someone plays back at you. I think this fits that scenario.

[PrtyPSux 0]

I folded, agree with all of you.A friend of mine told me to call, because I had "the best hand" and that was +EV. I tried to explain that conserving my chip position in the tourney was better than me flipping a coin with a slightly favorite hand. He didnt go for it.on that note. I have 1.4 in chips and I'm in 2nd place on the BB (same bubble) with JJ. CO pushes 900k its about 860 k for me to call. Call or fold?

[mk 11]

I folded, agree with all of you.A friend of mine told me to call, because I had "the best hand" and that was +EV. I tried to explain that conserving my chip position in the tourney was better than me flipping a coin with a slightly favorite hand. He didnt go for it.on that note. I have 1.4 in chips and I'm in 2nd place on the BB (same bubble) with JJ. CO pushes 900k its about 860 k for me to call. Call or fold?

If it's anywhere near the same blind level (20k/40k) I call. He'd probably get a little cuter with AA-QQ.

[copernicus 0]

I folded, agree with all of you.A friend of mine told me to call, because I had "the best hand" and that was +EV. I tried to explain that conserving my chip position in the tourney was better than me flipping a coin with a slightly favorite hand. He didnt go for it.on that note. I have 1.4 in chips and I'm in 2nd place on the BB (same bubble) with JJ. CO pushes 900k its about 860 k for me to call. Call or fold?

Even though you called and won, I would still fold.Even if he doesnt have AA-QQ, AK and AQ are also in his range, and I dont want to coinflip against a big stack here. I would change my mind if:

• early payouts arent meaningful or
• pushing is his "standard" or at least frequent raise
• the table in general has big stacks pushing often and he might just be following their lead

[amarillotg 0]

on that note. I have 1.4 in chips and I'm in 2nd place on the BB (same bubble) with JJ. CO pushes 900k its about 860 k for me to call. Call or fold?

in all honesty, i'd probably call. i think its a really tight decision. against his range you're probably a slight favorite but its really a coinflip.what is the avg stack at this point? if calling his all-in and losing will mean that im still an average stack i would make the call.i had a similar situation to this in a sng a couple weeks ago except i was against the big stack and he had been pushing all-in from the button almost everytime.Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxsaw flop|saw showdownHero (t5206)UTG (t3332)Button (t7678)SB (t3784)Preflop: Hero is BB with J , J 1 fold, Button raises all-in [t7678] , 1 fold, Hero calls [t5206] t600.

[mk 11]

Even though you called and won, I would still fold.Even if he doesnt have AA-QQ, AK and AQ are also in his range, and I dont want to coinflip against a big stack here. I would change my mind if:

• early payouts arent meaningful or
• pushing is his "standard" or at least frequent raise
• the table in general has big stacks pushing often and he might just be following their lead

Kind of surprising to hear you say this.I think his range would include a lot of smaller pairs, perhaps down to 66 or 55. Let's say 66. If his entire range is [AA-66], [AK-AQ] our equity is 56.5%, which means we're a 1.3:1 favorite. The pot only needs to offer us 0.77:1 odds to make calling EV neutral. The combination of the pot actually offering us 1.1:1 and the fact that I would weight the higher pairs (AA-QQ) much less, I think this is a pretty easy call.

[MasterLJ 0]

If it's anywhere near the same blind level (20k/40k) I call. He'd probably get a little cuter with AA-QQ.

I disagree. Sometimes jamming pre-flop with AA, KK, or QQ at an aggressive final table is an extremely deceptive and profitable play.

[mk 11]

I disagree. Sometimes jamming pre-flop with AA, KK, or QQ at an aggressive final table is an extremely deceptive and profitable play.

I agree, and I've done it many times myself, but I still think you see it MUCH less often than a standard raise or a l/rr.

[MasterLJ 0]

I agree, and I've done it many times myself, but I still think you see it MUCH less often than a standard raise or a l/rr.

Fair enough =). Really is read dependent.

[PrtyPSux 0]

Even though you called and won, I would still fold.Even if he doesnt have AA-QQ, AK and AQ are also in his range, and I dont want to coinflip against a big stack here. I would change my mind if:

• early payouts arent meaningful or
• pushing is his "standard" or at least frequent raise
• the table in general has big stacks pushing often and he might just be following their lead

Im asuming you saw the hand? if so you saw I took a while to call, I was really gonna pitch it, but I kinda analyzed the situation and well, since I was going for the win I felt I had to call.

[copernicus 0]

Im asuming you saw the hand? if so you saw I took a while to call, I was really gonna pitch it, but I kinda analyzed the situation and well, since I was going for the win I felt I had to call.

No, I didnt see it..just reading between the lines. My first bullet really ruled your decision then..you werent interested in early payouts, just the big one. Obviously in that situation you can take even small -tEV if winning leverages you into a chip stack thats a first place contender.

Kind of surprising to hear you say this.I think his range would include a lot of smaller pairs, perhaps down to 66 or 55. Let's say 66. If his entire range is [AA-66], [AK-AQ] our equity is 56.5%, which means we're a 1.3:1 favorite. The pot only needs to offer us 0.77:1 odds to make calling EV neutral. The combination of the pot actually offering us 1.1:1 and the fact that I would weight the higher pairs (AA-QQ) much less, I think this is a pretty easy call.

I didnt mean to imply that the total range was QQ+, AQ+...I was just adding AQ+ to the prior posters range. I think your range is a little wide, and I put the hand as a coin flip or a little worse. With the clarification that OP's sole objective is winning, that makes it a call, since winning gives him a commanding chip lead.