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How Sure Do You Have To Be?


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#1 Bobby Bring-in

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:24 PM

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with kd.gif as.gif
UTG raises, 3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: kh.gif 9c.gif 2s.gif (6.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Button Caps, Hero...

Upon UTG's 3 bet..i was 100% sure he had AK and was quite upset that he decided to reraise to get rid of the button as it was the only money we would make off the hand. Then the button caps it!

As far as the buttons range...the only hand that crossed my mind was 99, i suppose a smooth called AA is possible, but unlikely and it would have me in just as bad of shape.

Anyway, how sure of the button's hand do i have to be to just fold right there to the flop given that im positive UTG has the exact same hand as myself? With the action and the dry flop i was in the 80% range which makes it an easy fold but say i was only 30% that he had a set and his range could have been bigger...still a fold knowing that you are sharing someone else's hand?

#2 Pancake407

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:38 PM

3-bet Preflop

Call flop
get to showdown.

IMO.

I cant fold TPTK on a board like that.
IPB Image

#3 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:40 PM

QUOTE (Pancake407 @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 3:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
3-bet Preflop

Call flop
get to showdown.

IMO.

I cant fold TPTK on a board like that.


Yup.

As played, call the cap and call down.

- Zach

EDIT - I just realized the button call/capped it. He's either a retard or he has a set...
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#4 sche0576

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:43 PM

This would be a difficult fold but I think it may be correct. It does seem like the button has 99...but are you really that sure utg has ak?? Its definitely not aa?? I think this is a tough fold as the pot is now getting pretty big. I probably call the 2 bets and hope utg checks to the button on the turn and we are able to call it down for 2 bets. If utg leads out and button raises I think it is now time to fold.




QUOTE (Pancake407 @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 12:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
3-bet Preflop

Call flop
get to showdown.

IMO.

I cant fold TPTK on a board like that.


The more I think about this....doesn't the call/reraise by the button really seem like a set??? I am pretty sure I wouldn't be able to lay it down but maybe it's the right move...thoughts??

edit--zach beat me to it

#5 Actuary

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:44 PM

you don't know UTG's hand
please 3-bet preflop
please dont' quote me anything about not raising out of the blinds.
you equity is too strong not to with AK.

#6 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:45 PM

QUOTE (Actuary @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 3:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
you don't know UTG's hand
please 3-bet preflop
please dont' quote me anything about not raising out of the blinds.
you equity is too strong not to with AK.

Yup.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#7 Actuary

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:47 PM

****************

at 3/6 Buttons don't 3-bet 99?

well BB's don't 3-bet AK..so ya know..there you go...maybe Button has a set.

#8 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:48 PM

QUOTE (Actuary @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 3:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
****************

at 3/6 Button don't 3-bet 99?

well BB's don't 3-bet AK..so ya know..there you go...maybe Button has a set.

You see the same players as 2/4, Actuary. Some people are still retards who don't 3-bet 99... etc...

- Zach
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#9 Actuary

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:55 PM

QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 12:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You see the same players as 2/4, Actuary. Some people are still retards who don't 3-bet 99... etc...

- Zach


or open limp from CO....

blush.gif tongue.gif biggrin.gif icon_cry.gif wink.gif

#10 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 12:57 PM

QUOTE (Actuary @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 3:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
or open limp from CO....

blush.gif tongue.gif biggrin.gif icon_cry.gif wink.gif


I don't get it....
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#11 Actuary

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 01:01 PM

QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 12:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't get it....



99 vs AK vs 77

Board: 9AK....

bringing back memories?

icon_dance.gif

#12 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 01:15 PM

QUOTE (Actuary @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 4:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
99 vs AK vs 77

Board: 9AK....

bringing back memories?

icon_dance.gif

I thought so... but I was thinking you meant at 3/6... lol
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#13 Bobby Bring-in

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 01:47 PM

I decided not to raise in this spot as i was going to let UTG lead and i was going to C/R the flop...however this was probably incorrect especially since another player came along inbetween us.

As far as UTG's range, i had seen him limp EP with KQo/KQs so for him to 3 bet my C/R he had to have AK or AA or 99.

The real point i was trying to draw from this hand was knowing you share someone else's hand and getting alot of action from a 3rd party....how far do you take it?

THEORETICAL HAND!!!

Pre-Flop
UTG (super rock) open raises with a tiny range of AA-QQ AKs/AKo AQs

Button(very loose and passive PF) calls with a range of AQ AJ AT KQ KJ QTs any pair 22-77 and for some reason just calls with JJ-88

We are the BB and this time we 3 bet our As Kh smile.gif
Everyone just calls!

FLOP Ks Js 2h
UTG bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG 3 bets, Button caps, Hero calls
(after the flop we narrow UTG's range to exactly AK as he caps AA/KK PF and he cant have AQs as we have the As)
(now we put the Button range to 22 JJ KQ KJ QTo QsTs)

Basically what we have is 2 players sharing the same hand vs
22 or JJ - we are screwed and given the action is quite possible
KQ - doesn't make alot of sense with the cap but we are way ahead if its true
KJ - we are both drawing to the same hand to beat him (only 2 outs)
QTo - we are ahead and he has 6 outs to scoop
QsTs - we are still ahead but this time he has 13 outs against us

How involved do we want to get here??? With us either splitting or losing the whole pot and a rake working against us i would really like to chuck it on the flop. I can get percentage possibility of each hand for the button if you would like. Or i can stop making up fake hands and we can forget about all this if you'd like that better.

#14 Actuary

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 01:59 PM

as much of a math guy that I am, I'm not big on gonig crazy with specific hands because the uncertainty of the read always makes it less exact than the calculations pretend to be.

If UTG continues to pound the pot with Button raisng to, letting go is not hard when splitting is your best hope.
But if you can face UTG with 2 cold on the turn, and possibly be HU vs a oesd, sure.

The fact you are likely splitting reduces your impied odds (1/2)
So if he can be made to fold (given the same read of your hand) you can try that.

I don't have much to offer here
As I'm not that experienced really.

#15 tylerc

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 02:59 PM

i love hypothetical hands. so i guess the preflop 3bet is to get info out of the ug to see if he caps. since he doesnt you have to think either ak or aq. when he three bets the flop its an easy fold. who wants half a pot at best when you are putting in a third of it, especially if it gets really ugly on the turn. i think folding is hard mentally but definately the way to go.

#16 Zach6668

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 03:14 PM

We're three betting preflop for value. Plain and simple.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#17 doubleatrain

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Posted 16 March 2006 - 07:11 PM

QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Thursday, March 16th, 2006, 5:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We're three betting preflop for value. Plain and simple.


Agreed. You've (theoretically) got an edge and make money every time anybody puts in a bet against you preflop, but when you close the action, they can't put anymore money in with an equity deficit if you don't raise there.

#18 jayboogie

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Posted 17 March 2006 - 01:07 AM

I'm 3 betting pre-flop unless I'm up against the tightest rock, which in that case I'll just call and hope to spike an A or K, against an unknown this is a 3-bet for value purposes as well as a chance to see the strength of UTG's hand, whether it's good enough to cap or not. If he caps, it's a lot easier playing AK here than it is if he doesn't.

In this case, I'm showing the hand down expecting to be beat or chopping. I'm only calling 1 bet on the latter streets and folding facing 2 cold or maybe even a turn raise.

#19 pokerplayer24

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Posted 17 March 2006 - 11:43 PM

QUOTE (jayboogie @ Friday, March 17th, 2006, 1:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm 3 betting pre-flop unless I'm up against the tightest rock, which in that case I'll just call and hope to spike an A or K, against an unknown this is a 3-bet for value purposes as well as a chance to see the strength of UTG's hand, whether it's good enough to cap or not. If he caps, it's a lot easier playing AK here than it is if he doesn't.

In this case, I'm showing the hand down expecting to be beat or chopping. I'm only calling 1 bet on the latter streets and folding facing 2 cold or maybe even a turn raise.


Bad mindset.

Against any player when its going to be multi way if its worth calling with AK its worth 3-betting.

#20 jayboogie

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Posted 18 March 2006 - 12:04 AM

QUOTE (pokerplayer24 @ Friday, March 17th, 2006, 11:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Bad mindset.

Against any player when its going to be multi way if its worth calling with AK its worth 3-betting.


There's no definites and it's pretty foolish to look at 3-betting AK as something that you definitely have to do, because it's not. If your opponents hand ranges from AA, KK, QQ which is likely for a super rock, why are you 3-betting AK for?




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