17 replies to this topic

[Markmadness]

Well i was at a sit and go home game. I was 3rd place with only 3 left. with 5000 chips (in the money). Blinds were 400 /800. I was big blind with 63. Just me and the dealer in hand. He called preflop. The flop comes 10 4 5. Giving me the straight draw. I decided If i check i know he will bet, he is the chip leader and very aggresive. So i said to myself i am in the money, and if i really want to make a move now is the time. He called he had 10 7 suited and won top pair. You think this was a overly agressive? How would you have played this?

[Absolute]

pushing there is awful.i mean real bad.

[wrto4556]

It might not be that bad....let's look into it.You have an OESD. Odds against are 5-1. 1st pays $502nd pays $303rd pays $20So, 5 times you will miss your draw and make $20, and one time you will hit and double up. hmmmmm....tell me all the stack sizes so I can get odds of winning first place in the tournament. Thanks.This could be a fun math problem.

[JaysonWeber]

wrto4556 said:

It might not be that bad....let's look into it.You have an OESD. Odds against are 5-1. 1st pays $502nd pays $303rd pays $20So, 5 times you will miss your draw and make $20, and one time you will hit and double up. hmmmmm....tell me all the stack sizes so I can get odds of winning first place in the tournament. Thanks.This could be a fun math problem.

This is exactly what has to go through your head, having played 100+ SnGo's on UB I've grown accustom to these problems, give a chipcount and you can PM me when u do to make sure someone answers

[Markmadness]

30 700 Total chipsI had 5 200 roughlychip leader had 15500 chipsSecond place 10 000 chipsBlinds were 400/800These are rough estimates off by a hundred or two. I ended up making 20 bucks, from a buy in of 20. First place got something like 120Its weird but i was actually not in that bad of shape. I mean looking back now i had some play still. I wasn't forced to go all in at that point but i think it would have costed me half my stack to see the river. At least. If he were to bet the min.Curious about the odds. let me know

[wrto4556]

It might not be that bad....let's look into it.You have an OESD. Odds against are 5-1. 1st pays $502nd pays $303rd pays $20So, 5 times you will miss your draw and make $20, and one time you will hit and double up. hmmmmm....tell me all the stack sizes so I can get odds of winning first place in the tournament. Thanks.This could be a fun math problem.ok. So if you double up the stack sizes will be about even. So you have a 1/3 chance to win first, 1/3 of a chance to get second, and 1/3 of a chance to get 3rd. Averaging about $33.32. So, averaging about $133 for ever 6 times in this situation.OK. Now think about if you check/fold and wait until you have a hand that holds up more often. chip stacks were about 5,000 - 10,000 - 15,000So, you have about a 5-to-1 chance of getting first...? Is that right?If you wait for a better hand to double up, you are getting more oppertunities to get a 1/3 chance to win 1st.This is just brain-storming. I'm going to think it over a bit more....tough question.

[NormanHaupt]

lol we missed you, wrto

[JFarrell20]

There is nothing wrong with semi-bluffing for all your chips here. You are in third place, you cannot do any worse than third. Pushing all in on a junk flop is a great way to steal and give yourself a better shot at 2nd, or even 1st. You are already in for 16% of your stack. Next hand you will be in for an additional +/- 10% of your stack. Push here. Don't listen to Andy Warhol.Great play. I like you.btw, you said home game, right? What were the payouts? WRTO suggested 50/30/20, which is typical of online, but what were yours?EDIT: 120/?/20... what was second place?

[Absolute]

I think you listen to me in this spot.All of wrto's calculations are correct. But application of mathematics is just as important as the math itself.There will be another spot just as lucrative for you to get your money in with. I don't think you have to push being a 5 to 1 dog three handed.I would wait for something else, even an ace. Because you will be better than 5 to 1 to take the pot three-handed with any ace.just my thoughts.

[FebreezeHead]

you dont know hes a 5 to 1 dog, in fact most of the time his opponent will have hit nothing and will fold immediately. Furthermore, even if he hits bottom pair, a draw, or maybe even second pair he might still fold.

[spacemonkey]

Personally I like the play. With 4,200 left and 2,000 in the pot any bet will commit you to calling with all your chips. Checking and folding will seriously hurt your ability to ever overtake the chip leader. An open-ended straight draw with two cards to come is a 2-1 dog not 5-1.By moving-in you're forcing your opponent to have a hand. I'd guess that against a random hand that he'd have in that situation he'd have to fold about 70% of the time. If he calls you still have a draw that's not too bad. This way you have two ways to win the pot.If the 2nd place player was close to busting I might play it safe and try to make my hand before putting my chips in. But my general philosophy as a short stack is to go out shooting. Force your opponent to pick up a hand or hand over his chips. Heads-up it's hard to make a hand on the flop.

[JFarrell20]

Absolute said:

I think you listen to me in this spot.All of wrto's calculations are correct.  But application of mathematics is just as important as the math itself.There will be another spot just as lucrative for you to get your money in with.  I don't think you have to push being a 5 to 1 dog three handed.I would wait for something else, even an ace. Because you will be better than 5 to 1 to take the pot three-handed with any ace.just my thoughts.

With 8 clean outs, aren't you about 31.6% to make your hand?? Am I wrong? This means you are 2-to-1, and that's only if he's made a pair. Hell even if you make your hand you will dominate a set or two pairs. Even if he's made a pair he may not call this.Warhol...there are two people left....he has virtually no time left to wait for a naked ace. Like I said he's already in for 16% of his stack now, and will be in for 10% on the next hand...20% minimum if he completes the blind. He is on life support here and needs a miracle (or just a fold).Absolutely nothing wrong with moving all-in. Any pro would do so right here.

[dms26]

I like the play, he made a move heads up. Unfortunately the guy had top pair, most of the time he folds. Also even though he was called he left himself outs. Now calling an all in with the OESD is another story.

[JFarrell20]

Absolute said:

pushing there is awful.i mean real bad.

Where did you go Warhol?You need to retract these comments. Seriously.

[ChuckSty]

i think both sides have valid arguments. but odds are is that opponent has garbage and is going to fold and the odds are 2-1 you hit the straight. i'd probably push more than half of the time.

[wrto4556]

wrto4556 said:

It might not be that bad....let's look into it.You have an OESD. Odds against are 5-1. 1st pays $502nd pays $303rd pays $20So, 5 times you will miss your draw and make $20, and one time you will hit and double up. hmmmmm....tell me all the stack sizes so I can get odds of winning first place in the tournament. Thanks.This could be a fun math problem.ok. So if you double up the stack sizes will be about even. So you have a 1/3 chance to win first, 1/3 of a chance to get second, and 1/3 of a chance to get 3rd. Averaging about $33.32. So, averaging about $133 for ever 6 times in this situation.OK. Now think about if you check/fold and wait until you have a hand that holds up more often. chip stacks were about 5,000 - 10,000 - 15,000So, you have about a 5-to-1 chance of getting first...? Is that right?If you wait for a better hand to double up, you are getting more oppertunities to get a 1/3 chance to win 1st.This is just brain-storming. I'm going to think it over a bit more....tough question.

This is all wrong! SO so wrong....I'm not allowed to answer questions when 4-tabling.Push with the OESD.

[Markmadness]

After listening to all your replies, i think i made the right choice. Usually when i make a play and lose i think about it for a day and a half obsessing over it. This time i felt that the blinds were comming around so quickly and i knew that the blinds were doubling in 7 minutes i just went for it. I hate the fact that i only came in third but i could not ask for a better situation to come up. Sometimes you have to rely on luck. Thanks for all your replies.