11 replies to this topic

[CobaltBlue]

It's not a super-interesting hand, but I'm curious what everyone thinks in terms of bet-size analysis. Basically, what's the thought process on betting the hand and why?


FCP .50/1 NLHE (8-handed)

MP3 $132
Cobalt $135

Cobalt is CO w/ 3 :icon_suit_diamond: 3 :icon_suit_spade:. Playing other higher stakes tables, so not paying much attention to this one.

Pre-flop:
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Cobalt calls, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop ($4.50): T :icon_suit_club: 4 :icon_suit_club: T :icon_suit_spade: (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, Cobalt bets $2.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls

Turn ($9.50): 6 :icon_suit_club: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Cobalt checks

River ($9.50): 3 :icon_suit_club: (2 players)
MP3 bets $15, Cobalt raises to $45 ?

[DonkSlayer]

It's not a super-interesting hand, but I'm curious what everyone thinks in terms of bet-size analysis. Basically, what's the thought process on betting the hand and why?
FCP .50/1 NLHE (8-handed)

MP3 $132
Cobalt $135

Cobalt is CO w/ 3 :icon_suit_diamond: 3 :icon_suit_spade:. Playing other higher stakes tables, so not paying much attention to this one.

Pre-flop:
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Cobalt calls, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop ($4.50): T :icon_suit_club: 4 :icon_suit_club: T :icon_suit_spade: (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, Cobalt bets $2.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls

Turn ($9.50): 6 :icon_suit_club: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Cobalt checks

River ($9.50): 3 :icon_suit_club: (2 players)
MP3 bets $15, Cobalt raises to $45 ?

Cobalt pal I think this is read-dependent situation, which I'm pretty sure you've implied that you don't have in this situation. If he's a LAG he may be trying to make a play at you here if he sensed weakness when the flush came on the turn, but if he's a good player with the Ac and you raise the riv big, he may be able to get away from it. I like a ::gasp:: minraise here, based on the size of his bet. If he was just making a play he wont call you, but if he has a Qc thur Ac you may get a call here if you minraise. He may have also slowplayed a flopped set of 10's, in which case he overbet b/c he hates himself for letting 4-totheflush come, and he's not calling any raise there either.

[iggymcfly]

Without a read, I think I'd actually just call here. A good player won't make that overbet with just the flush, and since that's all you can beat, this bet's leaving you pretty vulnerable. He could have easily slow-played a bigger boat looking for a c/r on the turn, and then made an overbet on the river to compensate for the check. Against a bad player who would overplay the shit out of the Ac, a raise might be fine, but up against a good or unknown player, I would just call here.

[CobaltBlue]

If the board were different, I could see more boats, but honestly, what boats are we worried about here? TT, 44, and 66. T6, T4, and T3 aren't particularly worrisome as this opponent hasn't stood out for being super-loose.

And, why are y'all assuming this opponent is good? Ever heard of 'mediocre/bad until proven otherwise'?

[DonkSlayer]

If the board were different, I could see more boats, but honestly, what boats are we worried about here? TT, 44, and 66. T6, T4, and T3 aren't particularly worrisome as this opponent hasn't stood out for being super-loose.

And, why are y'all assuming this opponent is good? Ever heard of 'mediocre/bad until proven otherwise'?

Because of the obviousness of the situation. Even a total donk understands there's 4 to a flush, understands that his 7 of clubs is no good on this board. He will fold to anything less than a minraise, and call/push with a good flush or boat himself.

[Jordan]

lol.

i raise this all day cobalt just like you did.

he probably had Axc and turned the flush and was slowplaying, on the river he wanted to make up for "money lost" and overbet hoping you'd call, and he probably was just exicted as you raised, till he saw the board pair.

good raise.

- Jordan

[iggymcfly]

It's definitely a close decision, but what do you do if you get reraised? With my (lack of) talent for making big laydowns, I don't think I could get away from it. Playing .5/1, it might still be the right play, but if you're playing relatively high against good players, this raise could cost you a lot of money.

Honestly, I think I was a lot better player when I used to play 3/6 and 5/10, and I had some idea what people were doing when they bet their hands. My response here might of been symptomatic of my failure to adjust back down to playing lower limits.

[Jordan]

It's definitely a close decision, but what do you do if you get reraised? With my (lack of) talent for making big laydowns, I don't think I could get away from it. Playing .5/1, it might still be the right play, but if you're playing relatively high against good players, this raise could cost you a lot of money.

Honestly, I think I was a lot better player when I used to play 3/6 and 5/10, and I had some idea what people were doing when they bet their hands. My response here might of been symptomatic of my failure to adjust back down to playing lower limits.

it's bodog...it's 100nl..

- Jordan

[ChrisOfSpades]

Because of the obviousness of the situation. Even a total donk understands there's 4 to a flush, understands that his 7 of clubs is no good on this board. He will fold to anything less than a minraise, and call/push with a good flush or boat himself.

you'd be surprised how often a J high flush will call in this spot. you give ppl way too much credit.

good raise on the end, cobalt. to me, i'd say its a small flush tryin to represent the ace. and he'd likely pay $30 if he'd pay a min-raise.

[blakheart]

A good player will lay down to a min raise with a flush, a bad player will call your raise. I say the bet is a good size. You can't expect another boat here, you have to assume a flush. And bad players do not notice the paired board very often.

[CobaltBlue]

it's bodog...it's 100nl..

It's actually FCP in this hand, but the same point applies.

Excellent read of the situation, Jordan. He had Acxc.

My thinking was the a Ac/Kc/Qc probably pays me off here. Heck...he might even go insane and pay off with Jc or trips. The problem with lacking a read was not knowing whether he'd actually pay off an even bigger raise with the Ac.

Also, is everyone cool with trying to pick the pot up on the flop with that 1/2 pot bet? I'd say I make it 60% of the time, but it might be profitable more often.

[canateian]

It's actually FCP in this hand, but the same point applies.

Excellent read of the situation, Jordan. He had Acxc.

My thinking was the a Ac/Kc/Qc probably pays me off here. Heck...he might even go insane and pay off with Jc or trips. The problem with lacking a read was not knowing whether he'd actually pay off an even bigger raise with the Ac.

Also, is everyone cool with trying to pick the pot up on the flop with that 1/2 pot bet? I'd say I make it 60% of the time, but it might be profitable more often.

I actually like the flop bet because the range of hands that hit there arent that large, most of the time that will work out well