27 replies to this topic

[blueodum]

Suppose you have KcKs (early position) and are playing at a loose table. You raise pre-flop and get 7 callers.The flop comes Q/10/6 with two hearts. You bet and get 5 callers.The turn is an 8 (non-heart).Should you,1) Bet2) Check-raise3) Check and call4) Check and fold It seems to me the proper play would be to check and fold.1) You're not going to get very many people out with a bet or a check-raise (it seems), and ...2) The odds that someone out of the 5 callers is going to hit a straight, a flush, a set or two pair seems (intuitively, I admit) pretty high. Meanwhile, what was a very strong hand now appears weak because it hasn't improved. And since this particular KK has no shot at a flush or straight, there are only two outs to improve to a hand that has a good shot at winning.It seems like my KK are going to be the second-best hand very very often and betting them all the way to the river is a recipe for disaster. I've noticed that some players stick with a premium starting hand all the way to the river because they don't want to face the sad truth - the pair of cowboys have become weak.Is my thinking way off here?

[Emptyeye]

At a loose table, I probably check/call it down from there, in case it turns out that my kings are still good (Hands that would've made straights SHOULDN'T call your preflop raise, but particularly at lower limits, they will).Note that if a fourth card to the straight comes on the river, I probably toss it, and if the third heart comes on the river, I again probably toss it, as now there are any number of hands out there that can beat me.

[blueodum]

XXEddie,That's just the thing - a lot of these players will NEVER fold when they have a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, a gutshot draw or a made pair looking for a set or two-pair.And they will come in for two bets pre-flop with almost anything (yes, really). At a really loose table, you have to assume that the other players can have almost any starting hand, other than a premium one, in which case they'd likely have made it three bets before the flop.One thing I didn't mention is that loose players will play every Ace they get, so if an Ace comes on the river you're probably beat too.

[KDawgCometh]

blueodum said:

Suppose you have KcKs (early position) and are playing at a loose table. You raise pre-flop and get 7 callers.The flop comes Q/10/6 with two hearts. You bet and get 5 callers.The turn is an 8 (non-heart).Should you,1) Bet2) Check-raise3) Check and call4) Check and fold It seems to me the proper play would be to check and fold.1) You're not going to get very many people out with a bet or a check-raise (it seems), and ...2) The odds that someone out of the 5 callers is going to hit a straight, a flush, a set or two pair seems (intuitively, I admit) pretty high. Meanwhile, what was a very strong hand now appears weak because it hasn't improved. And since this particular KK has no shot at a flush or straight, there are only two outs to improve to a hand that has a good shot at winning.It seems like my KK are going to be the second-best hand very very often and betting them all the way to the river is a recipe for disaster. I've noticed that some players stick with a premium starting hand all the way to the river because they don't want to face the sad truth - the pair of cowboys have become weak.Is my thinking way off here?

NOOOOOOO, you must bet out, if you get raised then its thinking time but some little scare card should not dictate you go into passive mode with your overpair. If you check fold this thing and someone wins with top pair what are you going to say. J9 is the only hand that can make a straight here. Two pair or a set would've raised you on the flop because of the hearts to get them out hopefully. on the turn there are 10.5 big bets before you even bet so it is your priority to do everything you can to win this puppy. You will need to call this one down if you get raised, threebet you should then fold probably as your pot odds have gone down. You only have to win this pot 1 time in ten, and that is without all the extra bets that will bet put in on the next two streets, to break even and you will win this more than that. DON'T FOLD OR START GETTING PASSIVE HERE

[SmokeyMcPot]

If you check and fold here you might as well quit trying to learn to play the game correctly. Alot of the players that are drawing to a straight that need a K. There are only two left in the deck. If you're up against QT you still have outs. You're hand is good here a good amount of the time, but only 1/7 (Your hand will be good way more than 1/7 of the time) of the money going in is yours. bet bet bet bet bet.A c/r on the flop or turn is only good if you know that a later position player will bet. If someone else bets, your c/r is fwarted.-Smokey-

[SmokeyMcPot]

blueodum said:

XXEddie,That's just the thing - a lot of these players will NEVER fold when they have a flush draw, open-ended straight draw, a gutshot draw or a made pair looking for a set or two-pair.And they will come in for two bets pre-flop with almost anything (yes, really). At a really loose table, you have to assume that the other players can have almost any starting hand, other than a premium one, in which case they'd likely have made it three bets before the flop.One thing I didn't mention is that loose players will play every Ace they get, so if an Ace comes on the river you're probably beat too.

what are the odds that they hit there flush? What are the odds that they hit there ace? Definately not higher than your equity with pocket kings on a Q-high flop. It's good that they never fold...why don't people get that?

[KDawgCometh]

SmokeyMcPot said:

If you check and fold here you might as well quit trying to learn to play the game correctly. Alot of the players that are drawing to a straight that need a K. There are only two left in the deck. If you're up against QT you still have outs. You're hand is good here a good amount of the time, but only 1/7 (Your hand will be good way more than 1/7 of the time) of the money going in is yours. bet bet bet bet bet.A c/r on the flop or turn is only good if you know that a later position player will bet. If someone else bets, your c/r is fwarted.-Smokey-

I don't like CRing the turn at all here because of all of the draws. By betting out you at least have fold equity here and checking you really run the risk of gving a free card which could be utterly disastorous for you here. By checking you are giving them infinite odds to hit their hand, by betting out they still have the odds to draw, but at least it costs them to draw. This is also a big pot in which going for a turn C/R here is definetly some FPS of the worst kind. In big pots like this you don't get fancy and just ram and jam

[blueodum]

KDawg,You are assuming your opponents know how to play when you say they would raise you if they had two pair or a set on the flop. I've seen players who NEVER raise when somebody bets in early position post-flop - they just call all the way to the river. Let's also note that you are in early position, so you have no idea if the 8 has given someone two pair.I admit my thinking may be wrong here, mostly because there are a lot of bets in the pot already, but I think you guys are overestimating the strength of the KK here.Any J, 9, 7 on the river means a good chance for a straight.An Ace probably means you're beat.The K-hearts means there's a decent chance your set gets beat by a flush.A Q, 10, 8 or 6 means a very good chance someone's hit a set.Even a 2, 3 or 4 might mean two pairs. And a 5 is a straight if someone is holding a 7-4 or 7-9.Nearly every card that could come on the river is a scare card.Seriously, what are your chances of winning this hand, assuming your opponents are bad players - a good deal less that 10%, since you have only one pure out, one other one if no one is on a flush draw, and you can't eliminate any possible holdings they might have.

[SmokeyMcPot]

You're fooling yourself. KK is going to be good on this flop 30% of the time. There are 7 players in the pot....that means only 14% of the money going in is yours, and you will win 30% of the time! Think harder.

[blueodum]

Okay, let' say there are 17 bets in the pot.Let's examine the bet-bet strategy:Turn: Bet - call-fold-call-call-foldRiver: Bet - fold-call-callI'm assuming here that3 of 5 will call on turn and 2 of 3 will call on river. I'm also assuming that nobody raises.So, you are essentially risking 2 bets to win 24 bets total (including the two you put in). That's a little over 8%. Will your Kings hold up 8% of the time? Given the number of ways that you can lose and the chances of making a set of Kings without giving someone else a flush, I'd say it's a close call.Now suppose someone's hit two pair on the turn and decides to raise your bet.Turn: Bet - call-fold-call-raise-foldIf he's raised you on the turn, he's unlikely to fold on the river and so you'll need to put in 4 bets to win his 4 bets and any other bets that come along (lets say another 3). That means 4 bets to win 17+11=28 total bets. Now, to justify going to a showdown, you have to think your Kings are going to win at least 14% of the time. I don' think that's going to happen.This illustrates the difficulty of playing a marginal hand (and at this point KK is a marginal hand) out of position.

[KDawgCometh]

blueodum said:

KDawg,You are assuming your opponents know how to play when you say they would raise you if they had two pair or a set on the flop. I've seen players who NEVER raise when somebody bets in early position post-flop - they just call all the way to the river. Let's also note that you are in early position, so you have no idea if the 8 has given someone two pair.I admit my thinking may be wrong here, mostly because there are a lot of bets in the pot already, but I think you guys are overestimating the strength of the KK here.Any J, 9, 7 on the river means a good chance for a straight.An Ace probably means you're beat.The K-hearts means there's a decent chance your set gets beat by a flush.A Q, 10, 8 or 6 means a very good chance someone's hit a set.Even a 2, 3 or 4 might mean two pairs. And a 5 is a straight if someone is holding a 7-4 or 7-9.Nearly every card that could come on the river is a scare card.Seriously, what are your chances of winning this hand, assuming your opponents are bad players - a good deal less that 10%, since you have only one pure out, one other one if no one is on a flush draw, and you can't eliminate any possible holdings they might have.

look if your playing scared then stop right now. Your hand will win more than it will loose here, you need to bet. If someone made a draw THEY WILL RAISE, if they have two pair THEY WILL RAISE. I've played more than enough poker to know those facts. Not every card will be a scare card on the river. You are worried about every possible bad outcome other than the big pot you will win more often than not. All I can say is that if you get scared everytime a possible scare card comes out you will lose money in the long run, TRUST ME. You won't get full value for your hand which is bad in a pot of this size, you want to collect as many bets as possible, I can garuntee you that you'll take this puppy down enough to show a tidy profit

[blueodum]

Smokey,Where did you come up with this 30% figure? Seems out of thin air.And it doesn't matter how much money of the pot WAS yours. It only matters how much is in the pot, how much more YOU will have to put in and how much your OPPONENTS will likely put in if this thing comes to a showdown (as it surely will, given the nature of the table).It's about implied odds, my friend.

[KDawgCometh]

blueodum said:

Okay, let' say there are 17 bets in the pot.Let's examine the bet-bet strategy:Turn: Bet - call-fold-call-call-foldRiver: Bet - fold-call-callI'm assuming here that3 of 5 will call on turn and 2 of 3 will call on river. I'm also assuming that nobody raises.So, you are essentially risking 2 bets to win 24 bets total (including the two you put in). That's a little over 8%. Will your Kings hold up 8% of the time? Given the number of ways that you can lose and the chances of making a set of Kings without giving someone else a flush, I'd say it's a close call.Now suppose someone's hit two pair on the turn and decides to raise your bet.Turn: Bet - call-fold-call-raise-foldIf he's raised you on the turn, he's unlikely to fold on the river and so you'll need to put in 4 bets to win his 4 bets and any other bets that come along (lets say another 3). That means 4 bets to win 17+11=28 total bets. Now, to justify going to a showdown, you have to think your Kings are going to win at least 14% of the time. I don' think that's going to happen.This illustrates the difficulty of playing a marginal hand (and at this point KK is a marginal hand) out of position.

du.de I have played at enough limits, and won at enough limits, to know that your hand is still very strong. You are fooling yourself into getting passive and not trying to maximize your winnijng potential, that is what its about. You are giving your opponents way too much credit, simple. I have crushed many lower limits and going passive in this big of a pot is the opposite of what you want to do. Because there are so many bets in the pot you need to go on the offensive here and don't surrender the lead, you are the one dictating the tempo of this hand, there is no reason to stop this. Your thinking is flawed and a losing mentality, I don't want to sound harsh but if this is how you play then you need to reexamine your game. It is hands like thses that dtermine a longterm winner and a loser. You have to push small edges when you get the chance. If you are raised then call and go to a showdown, if your threebet then you should release moreoften than not. You need to push small edges, and this is a perfect example of that

[blueodum]

Dawg,Believe me, I don't play scared poker.I look at the likelihood of each event occuring and try to make the best logical play. It's got nothing to do with being scared or not.You seem to think that KK is strong even though there are a bunch of players still in the hand and four cards have come that have not helped you one iota. KK is a weak hand at this point. The only question is, how weak is it relative to the implied odds you're likely to get.Suppose you had 10 hands and every single one of them was played out with no one ever folding. How many times would a pair of Kings or worse be the high hand? Not a whole lot. I'd appreciate it if someone could give me a compelling logical argument why I should bet on the turn and river here.

[SmokeyMcPot]

blueodum said:

Dawg,Believe me, I don't play scared poker.I look at the likelihood of each event occuring and try to make the best logical play. It's got nothing to do with being scared or not.You seem to think that KK is strong even though there are a bunch of players still in the hand and four cards have come that have not helped you one iota. KK is a weak hand at this point. The only question is, how weak is it relative to the implied odds you're likely to get.Suppose you had 10 hands and every single one of them was played out with no one ever folding. How many times would a pair of Kings or worse be the high hand? Not a whole lot. I'd appreciate it if someone could give me a compelling logical argument why I should bet on the turn and river here.

You want a compelling, logical arguement? Read a book.

[blueodum]

I understand your point.I just don't believe that you should pushing hard with a weak hand when you have no chance of folding everyone out. In my view, that's poor play.

[KDawgCometh]

blueodum said:

Dawg,Believe me, I don't play scared poker.I look at the likelihood of each event occuring and try to make the best logical play. It's got nothing to do with being scared or not.You seem to think that KK is strong even though there are a bunch of players still in the hand and four cards have come that have not helped you one iota. KK is a weak hand at this point. The only question is, how weak is it relative to the implied odds you're likely to get.Suppose you had 10 hands and every single one of them was played out with no one ever folding. How many times would a pair of Kings or worse be the high hand? Not a whole lot. I'd appreciate it if someone could give me a compelling logical argument why I should bet on the turn and river here.

read David Sklansky, he'll say the same thing. Post this question up on 2+2 and they'll all say the same thing. Yes you are playing scatred poker if this is how your playing the hand, simple. Yes you can be beat, but trust me you'll win more than enough to push here

[blueodum]

" You want a compelling, logical arguement? Read a book."I thought this was a Poker Strategy forum. Sorry, I'll be on my way now.

[SmokeyMcPot]

blueodum said:

I understand your point.I just don't believe that you should pushing hard with a weak hand when you have no chance of folding everyone out. In my view, that's poor play.

*sigh* You're pushing because of your pot equity. You may lose 70% of the time, but the pot is so big that the 30% you do win it makes up for all the other times...more than makes up for it. You win money....+EV.Compelling enough? Or do you need more "in depth" comments?