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Ok, look over this and tell me if I played this wrong at all. FullTiltPoker Game #457721678: Table Clayton (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:02:20 ET - 2006/02/23Seat 1: neil72 ($24.70)Seat 2: HERO ($24.30)Seat 3: djryry20 ($50)Seat 4: jrhurban25 ($33.15)Seat 5: RounderForLife ($48.20), is sitting outSeat 6: RealTired ($42.50)HERO posts the small blind of $0.25djryry20 posts the big blind of $0.50The button is in seat #1*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to HERO [8h 4h]jrhurban25 calls $0.50RealTired foldsneil72 foldsHERO calls $0.25djryry20 checks*** FLOP *** [3d 5h 2h]HERO bets $1.50djryry20 foldsjrhurban25 calls $1.50*** TURN *** [3d 5h 2h] [8d]HERO bets $3jrhurban25 raises to $6HERO calls $3*** RIVER *** [3d 5h 2h 8d] [6d]HERO bets $5jrhurban25 calls $5*** SHOW DOWN ***HERO shows [8h 4h] (a straight, Six high)jrhurban25 mucksHERO wins the pot ($25.20) with a straight, Six high*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $26.50 | Rake $1.30Board: [3d 5h 2h 8d 6d]Seat 1: neil72 (button) didn't bet (folded)Seat 2: HERO (small blind) showed [8h 4h] and won ($25.20) with a straight, Six highSeat 3: djryry20 (big blind) folded on the FlopSeat 4: jrhurban25 mucked [5c 5d] - three of a kind, FivesSeat 5: RounderForLife is sitting outSeat 6: RealTired didn't bet (folded) I was the SB. With that flop, I am a favorite to win against even top set, on the flop right? 9 hearts, 8 straight cards equals 17 outs. Using 'rule of 4' that means 68% favorite correct? Then the turn gives me top pair with my draws. He said I chased him down and had played it poorly. I think my only mistake was not betting more. Any input appreciated.

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First of all, you dont have 17 outs...you have 15. You counted 6h and Ah twice. You're pretty much a coin flip on this one. I think you might be around 55% to hit an out by the river, but he has the case 5, and outs to tie a straight, making it pretty even. The flop bet is pretty much neutral EVOn the turn, you pick up 2 more outs, but against top set, you're now a dog, The bet is -EV if you're behind to a set.
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